Post on 08-May-2020
Crecimiento de los países desarrollados: ¿qué factores influyen?
Autores y e-mail de la persona de contacto: Sofía Jiménez Calvo (sjimenez@unizar.es), Raquel Langarita Tejero Departamento: Análisis económico Universidad: Universidad de Zaragoza. Área Temática: Crecimiento, convergencia y desigualdades territoriales. Resumen: Parece existir un cierto acuerdo, entre los economistas, sobre los factores que históricamente han podido influir en las diferencias que se observan entre el crecimiento de los países desarrollados y el crecimiento de los países en vías de desarrollo. Sin embargo, no está tan claro que elementos explican las diferentes sendas de crecimiento de los países desarrollados, siendo las diferencias entre ellos más visibles desde la actual crisis. Este es el objetivo de este trabajo, tener una visión multirregional del crecimiento de los países desarrollados, siendo la acumulación de capital, las relaciones entre países y el gasto en I+D clave en nuestro estudio. Así, en primer lugar se realizará un análisis descriptivo de las tablas multirreginales WIOT, las cuales están disponibles entre 1995 y 2011. Después nos centramos en el gasto de I+D en las distintas economías y el efecto spillover que este gasto tiene en las mismas, abordándolo desde dos perspectivas, una en cantidades y otra en valores, con el objetivo de comparar los resultados obtenidos a través de ambas vías. Palabras Clave: tablas multirregionales, efectos spillover, crecimiento económico, I+D.
1. Introduction
There is a certain consensus in economic literature about the factors that have
influenced in historical differences in growth rates observed between developed and
developing countries. However, it is less clear what elements have marked different
paths of growth in developed economies, being these differences more visible during
the recent economic crisis. This is the objective of this paper, to have multiregional
image of growth in developed countries, being elements such as capital accumulation,
interrelations between countries or, specially, R&D expenditure key in our study.
Models such as GTAP1, GLIO2, GRAM3 o WIOT4 offer a relatively detailed
economic data, showing interrelations between countries. Because of that, these kinds
of databases are useful to achieve our objectives. Here we will work with WIOT tables,
adding data from OCDE databases related to R&D expenditure.
WIOT tables, as Timmer (2012) indicates, is formed by 40 countries plus ‘Rest
of World’, which is residual. These countries are shown in table 1.
Table 1: Countries in WIOD database.
Fuente: Marcel P. Timmer (ed) (2012)
However, in order to adapt OCDE data in WIOT tables we will use in most of the years
25 countries, especially in the last section of our paper.
Besides, in order to make calculus and understanding of results easier, we
aggregate sectors and we will work with seventeen sectors; primary sector (PS), energy
sector (ES), food, beverages and tobacco sector, textile sector, paper and printing sector,
coke, refined petroleum and nuclear fuel sector, chemical sector, rubber and plastics
sector, other non-metallic mineral sector, basic metals and fabricated metal sector,
machinery and equipment sector, electrical and optical equipment sector, transport 1 Global Trade Analysis Project. 2 Global Link Input-Output Model. 3 Global Resource Accounting Model. 4 World Input-Output tables.
equipment sector, manufacturing and recycling sector, construction, high technology
services or HTS (where three sectors are included; post and telecommunications
activities, financial and insurance sector and professional, scientific, technical,
administrative and support service activities) and rest of services (RS).
In the first sections we will make a compare revision of WIOT tables from 1995
to 2011 and then we will focus on R&D expenditure and their effects in the economy. In
that way in the first part we will briefly comment how production and value added have
progressed from 1995 to 2011, both at absolute and per capita terms; in order to have a
first image of what has happened during this period. In this sense it is important to pay
attention in sectorial specialization that offer us relevant information about the structure
of the economy of each country. In the next section we will talk about trade between
countries, focusing again on its sectorial specialization. This could led us to complete
the previous image, since this globalize world makes interrelations between countries a
significant variable to explain growth, as some papers try to show, like Pier Saviotti &
Koen Frenken (2008). In the final section, an important part of our paper, we will talk
about the role of R&D expenditure in growth, being WIOD the scenery in which we
will work. In this section we want to offer a general view of the situation of R&D
expenditure in each country, but not only this. Motivate for Thijs ten Raa & Edward N.
Wolff (2000), we are also going to show and explain the final destinations of R&D
expenditure through spillovers effects between sectors and countries, inside a
multiregional mark, being this topic the most innovative question of our paper.
2. Output and value added: sectorial specialization.
Here we are going to try to show output and value added behavior from 1995 to
2011, both at absolute and per capita terms, focusing in the sectorial specialization of
each country.
In absolute terms, the highest production is found in USA, as it is expected a
priori. As it is known too, China production is significant and at the end of the period its
production has similar levels to USA’s output. Differences between both countries are
observed in rates of growth of output. In USA growth production keeps constant along
the time, being the rate of growth near to 5%. In the other hand, the evolution of China
is impressive. The average rate of China’s output is higher than 16%, being the highest
rate of all studied countries. In Brazil and India, rates of growth of output are, also,
significant, particularly since 2003, but they don’t get values as high as China, being
their average rates around 15%. Besides, crisis effect is more visible in those countries
than in China.
If we analyze production in per capita5 terms the ‘scenery’ changes.
Luxemburg’s production seems to be the higher, with values near to $35.000 million.
This is the result of the extraordinary growth that Luxemburg’s production has
experimented since 2002. Other countries with great levels of output are Ireland,
Austria, Sweden or Netherlands. We could find some explications to this fact. In the
case of Sweden or Netherlands, they don`t have high extension or population. However,
their health security or/and education are considered some of the best in the world,
together with Denmark, as social welfare indicators shown. In the other hand, in the
case of Luxemburg or Ireland, there are fiscal advantages that could be attracting big
fortunes (or enterprises) of other countries, making gross their output.
Respect to value added it is important to note the great levels of value added that
USA achieves, both at absolute and per capita terms; showing that it is not only relevant
the quantity of output, but also the value added involved in the process. These facts
would be emphasized when we observed the sectorial specialization.
To make easier the understanding of results here we are going to show the
weight of five big blocks of sectors; industry, services, primary sector, construction and
energy sector. Despite that we will show some disaggregate results too. We are going to
show this both for output and value added and for 1995 and 2011.
Table 2: Output by sectors.
5 Data of population is obtained from World Bank.
% of output
Industry Services Construction Primary sector Energy sector
1995 2011 Diference 1995 2011 Diferen
ce 1995 2011
Diference
1995 2011Diferen
ce 1995 2011 Diference
Australia 21,12 14,23 -6,89 59,08 59,51 0,43 9,76 12,14 2,38 3,63 2,70 -0,93 6,41 11,42 5,01
Austria 28,46 29,22 0,76 56,49 54,86 -1,63 8,52 7,56 -0,96 2,77 1,86 -0,91 3,76 1,86 -1,9
Belgium 33,04 28,90 -4,14 55,94 60,57 4,63 6,93 7,56 0,63 1,73 0,95 -0,78 2,36 0,79 -1,57
Bulgaria 36,68 31,92 -4,76 37,16 45,36 8,2 4,48 11,98 7,5 14,75 4,86 -9,89 6,93 0,24 -6,69
Brazil 32,46 28,50 -3,96 53,39 54,14 0,75 5,67 5,90 0,23 4,74 5,06 0,32 3,74 9,01 5,27
Canada 29,75 28,88 -0,87 54,85 55,15 0,3 6,52 7,21 0,69 3,51 2,79 -0,72 5,38 6,68 1,3
China 49,96 52,23 2,27 24,43 26,21 1,78 8,13 9,62 1,49 12,51 5,66 -6,85 4,97 49,13 44,16
Cyprus 20,91 13,24 -7,67 61,49 70,45 8,96 9,67 10,39 0,72 5,57 2,68 -2,89 2,36 0,04 -2,32
Czech Republic
35,74 41,36 5,62 42,27 44,55 2,28 9,67 7,29 -2,38 4,34 2,28 -2,06 7,98 0,85 -7,13
Germany 33,04 36,10 3,06 54,88 54,78 -0,1 7,78 4,89 -2,89 1,46 1,29 -0,17 2,84 7,01 4,17
Denmark 25,78 18,96 -6,82 60,78 68,06 7,28 6,83 5,82 -1,01 3,95 2,63 -1,32 2,66 0,95 -1,71
In general terms we can say that there is common pattern, being services the
most important block in developed economies. In this sense, we can see that in 1995
only in countries such as Bulgaria, China, Turkey or Taiwan, which are involved in a
developed process, the weight of industry in the total economy is higher than the
percentage of services. In 2011 the situation changes and only in China Industry is the
most important block. In fact, the evolution of services has been significant; being a
good example USA. In 1995 services represented 64% of total production whereas in
2011 this value increased 7 percentage points. By contrast, industry has a moderate
Spain 31,67 25,60 -6,07 50,59 56,40 5,81 10,44 11,79 1,35 4,23 2,25 -1,98 3,07 4,04 0,97
Estonia 31,38 23,49 -7,89 47,54 59,62 12,08 7,89 8,30 0,41 7,23 3,30 -3,93 5,96 0,08 -5,88
Finland 37,63 32,30 -5,33 49,67 54,54 4,87 6,08 7,99 1,91 3,88 2,35 -1,53 2,74 0,53 -2,21
France 25,57 25,21 -0,36 58,92 62,79 3,87 6,57 6,92 0,35 3,47 2,53 -0,94 5,46 4,55 -0,91
UK 28,67 16,89 -11,78 57,37 69,94 12,57 6,92 7,14 0,22 1,96 1,07 -0,89 5,08 7,72 2,64
Greece 22,55 17,32 -5,23 57,98 69,53 11,55 8,88 6,84 -2,04 7,78 3,36 -4,42 2,80 0,47 -2,33
Hungary 35,27 41,40 6,13 47,26 44,86 -2,4 4,91 3,65 -1,26 8,33 5,75 -2,58 4,23 0,47 -3,76
Indonesia 42,83 31,38 -11,45 31,94 34,56 2,62 10,29 14,54 4,25 9,82 9,79 -0,03 5,11 5,67 0,56
India 40,24 34,81 -5,43 31,72 39,21 7,49 6,54 11,52 4,98 16,41 10,50 -5,91 5,09 5,02 -0,07
Irland 38,96 36,64 -2,32 45,20 54,65 9,45 7,31 5,01 -2,3 6,21 1,47 -4,74 2,32 0,37 -1,95
Italy 35,80 29,86 -5,94 52,64 59,22 6,58 6,48 6,13 -0,35 2,53 1,65 -0,88 2,55 4,71 2,16
Japan 33,10 31,53 -1,57 52,63 57,24 4,61 9,64 6,54 -3,1 1,71 1,39 -0,32 2,92 13,12 10,2
Korea 45,80 53,98 8,18 38,35 35,88 -2,47 9,93 5,70 -4,23 3,97 1,89 -2,08 1,96 2,58 0,62
Lithuania 29,41 28,34 -1,07 42,77 54,95 12,18 7,31 6,56 -0,75 12,65 4,96 -7,69 7,87 0,13 -7,74
Luxemburg 19,92 7,60 -12,32 71,05 85,82 14,77 6,78 4,88 -1,9 0,96 0,31 -0,65 1,29 0,08 -1,21
Latvia 25,75 16,10 -9,65 53,38 62,19 8,81 5,56 11,85 6,29 10,52 4,37 -6,15 4,79 0,11 -4,68
Mexico 36,40 32,34 -4,06 46,73 47,32 0,59 5,71 7,84 2,13 4,70 3,41 -1,29 6,46 6,25 -0,21
Malta 38,29 19,11 -19,18 49,70 68,40 18,7 4,96 4,39 -0,57 2,73 2,26 -0,47 4,32 0,04 -4,28
Netherlands 28,33 26,78 -1,55 55,92 59,32 3,4 7,43 6,42 -1,01 3,62 2,21 -1,41 4,70 3,08 -1,62
Poland 32,27 33,31 1,04 44,41 48,19 3,78 7,55 9,10 1,55 8,82 3,68 -5,14 6,96 2,11 -4,85
Portugal 32,20 24,35 -7,85 50,65 59,45 8,8 8,94 8,70 -0,24 4,51 2,58 -1,93 3,70 0,76 -2,94
Romania 37,17 29,82 -7,35 31,56 45,26 13,7 6,91 11,01 4,1 15,84 7,06 -8,78 8,51 0,87 -7,64
Russia 27,57 27,58 0,01 45,99 48,52 2,53 5,96 6,29 0,33 8,31 4,41 -3,9 12,18 15,13 2,95
Slovakia 37,43 33,99 -3,44 42,04 44,84 2,8 7,01 9,73 2,72 6,02 3,15 -2,87 7,50 0,62 -6,88
Slovenia 36,96 29,54 -7,42 46,71 53,08 6,37 8,22 11,44 3,22 4,34 2,27 -2,07 3,76 0,13 -3,63
Sweden 32,45 29,44 -3,01 57,45 59,43 1,98 5,18 6,22 1,04 2,28 1,60 -0,68 2,64 1,20 -1,44
Turkey 40,55 33,93 -6,62 39,61 48,88 9,27 7,03 5,58 -1,45 10,33 6,96 -3,37 2,48 2,32 -0,16
Taiwan 45,66 48,10 2,44 41,72 43,85 2,13 7,01 4,27 -2,74 3,24 1,79 -1,45 2,37 0,74 -1,63
USA 26,07 19,84 -6,23 64,24 71,47 7,23 5,13 3,95 -1,18 1,76 1,57 -0,19 2,80 29,95 27,15
growth and in some cases even there is a decrease. This is the case of USA; in 1995
industry represented 26% of total output while in 2011 decrease until 19%.
In this sense we have to talk about the case of Luxembourg. As we can see in
table 2 the percentage of services of total production was 71% in 1995, while in 2011
was 85%. Moreover, the sector that major contribution makes to production is Financial
Intermediation, which represented 30% of total production in 1995. In 2011 this figure
is near to 50%. This may are reflecting the ‘special’ fiscal conditions that this country
has, and confirms what we have said before. This country has a great level of
production in per capita terms, but the explanation behind this fact is related to its fiscal
features, that could make this country be considered nearby fiscal paradise.
It is also important the case of construction. Construction seems to be one of the
sectors with more relevance in most economies, representing between 10% and 6% of
total output, depending of the country. In fact, construction, until the recent crisis, was
the second or the third sector with more weight in the different economies. This could
be an indicator of a bubble generated around this sector. A good example of that is
Spain, where construction represented 16% of total production in 2006. Since this year
this percentage decline in all countries due to crisis effect.
Now, we are going to see in table 3 which is the contribution of each block to
the generation of value added.
Table 3: Value added by sectors.
% of value added
Industry Services Construction Primary sector Energy sector
1995 2011 Diference 1995 2011 Diferen
ce 1995 2011
Diference
1995 2011Diferen
ce 1995 2011 Diference
Australia 14,58 8,51 -6,07 67,82 67,40 -0,42 5,99 7,25 1,26 3,82 3,03 -0,79 7,79 13,81 6,02
Austria 19,64 18,54 -1,10 66,61 69,81 3,20 7,90 6,74 -1,16 2,63 1,71 -0,91 3,22 3,19 -0,04
Belgium 20,28 14,54 -5,74 70,08 77,06 6,98 5,13 5,28 0,15 1,52 0,70 -0,81 2,99 2,42 -0,57
Bulgaria 21,96 17,57 -4,39 52,29 61,83 9,54 4,81 9,09 4,28 15,73 5,15 -10,58 5,20 6,36 1,16
Brazil 18,62 15,20 -3,41 66,70 67,81 1,11 5,49 5,89 0,41 5,77 5,58 -0,19 3,42 5,51 2,09
Canada 18,36 16,74 -1,61 66,82 67,09 0,27 4,95 5,76 0,81 2,77 1,93 -0,84 7,11 8,47 1,36
China 34,80 32,84 -1,96 32,86 43,13 10,26 6,13 6,79 0,65 19,96 10,11 -9,85 6,24 7,13 0,89
Cyprus 11,80 6,84 -4,96 72,46 80,35 7,89 8,30 8,20 -0,10 5,07 2,27 -2,79 2,38 2,34 -0,04
Czech Republic
24,26 25,84 1,58 56,69 59,68 2,98 6,58 6,20 -0,37 5,00 2,09 -2,91 7,47 6,19 -1,28
Germany 22,64 22,41 -0,23 66,58 69,49 2,91 6,76 4,19 -2,57 1,27 1,02 -0,25 2,75 2,89 0,14
Denmark 17,12 11,45 -5,67 71,45 76,30 4,85 4,67 4,83 0,15 3,47 1,55 -1,92 3,28 5,86 2,58
Spain 19,19 13,23 -5,97 64,86 72,12 7,26 7,50 9,10 1,59 5,45 2,73 -2,72 2,99 2,82 -0,17
Estonia 20,98 14,32 -6,66 61,24 70,96 9,73 6,67 6,95 0,29 5,82 2,58 -3,24 5,29 5,18 -0,12
In that way, in table 3 we can see that the block that major contribution makes to
value added is services, being higher than 50% in most countries (both in 1995 and
2011), as it is expected seeing previous comments. However, the contribution of this
sector to value added has grown less than the contribution of services to production.
This may be indicating that some sectors, belonged to services, involve low value
added, such as financial intermediation. In the case of Luxemburg, whose economy has
been focused on this sector along the period studied, the contribution of financial
intermediation to value added was 22% in 1995 and 26% in 2011, while the
contribution to production, as we have said, was 30% and 48% respectively. This is not
only indicating the low value added that some service sectors generate but also the
Finland 25,40 18,61 -6,78 62,19 68,97 6,78 4,85 6,68 1,83 4,49 2,70 -1,78 3,08 3,03 -0,05
France 14,24 10,12 -4,12 72,10 79,90 7,80 5,65 6,16 0,51 3,33 2,07 -1,25 4,68 1,75 -2,93
UK 20,94 11,69 -9,24 67,47 77,05 9,58 4,98 5,62 0,64 1,85 1,01 -0,83 4,76 4,63 -0,14
Greece 11,99 10,31 -1,69 69,64 79,07 9,43 6,01 4,45 -1,56 8,88 3,14 -5,73 3,48 3,02 -0,45
Hungary 21,27 25,32 4,04 62,63 62,07 -0,56 4,44 3,39 -1,05 8,02 5,65 -2,37 3,63 3,57 -0,06
Indonesia 29,48 22,65 -6,83 40,28 38,16 -2,12 6,79 10,17 3,38 15,42 14,73 -0,69 8,04 14,29 6,26
India 18,53 14,56 -3,97 45,77 56,72 10,95 5,06 8,05 2,98 25,71 16,53 -9,18 4,93 4,15 -0,78
Ireland 30,16 26,77 -3,39 54,97 65,58 10,61 5,35 4,12 -1,22 7,04 1,36 -5,68 2,49 2,16 -0,32
Italy 22,23 16,58 -5,65 66,42 73,17 6,76 5,31 5,87 0,56 3,31 1,89 -1,42 2,74 2,50 -0,24
Japan 22,59 18,60 -3,99 64,57 71,73 7,16 8,22 5,78 -2,44 1,74 1,34 -0,40 2,88 2,55 -0,33
Korea 27,21 31,09 3,88 54,04 58,14 4,10 10,11 5,87 -4,24 6,16 2,70 -3,46 2,47 2,20 -0,28
Lithuania 19,13 16,37 -2,76 57,54 69,69 12,15 7,01 6,41 -0,61 10,98 3,36 -7,62 5,34 4,18 -1,16
Luxemburg 13,69 6,46 -7,23 77,24 86,60 9,36 6,46 5,34 -1,13 1,03 0,30 -0,73 1,59 1,31 -0,28
Latvia 20,68 9,94 -10,74 60,57 76,06 15,48 4,58 6,62 2,04 9,07 3,29 -5,78 5,09 4,09 -1,00
Mexico 19,88 17,62 -2,26 61,36 61,13 -0,24 4,66 6,60 1,94 5,29 3,36 -1,93 8,80 11,29 2,49
Malta 21,67 13,29 -8,38 68,78 78,33 9,56 4,91 3,86 -1,06 2,86 2,05 -0,82 1,77 2,47 0,70
Netherlands 17,44 14,05 -3,39 69,16 73,52 4,36 5,43 5,30 -0,12 3,48 1,78 -1,70 4,49 5,34 0,85
Poland 21,11 18,07 -3,04 56,83 64,49 7,67 6,74 7,33 0,59 8,01 3,69 -4,32 7,31 6,41 -0,90
Portugal 18,44 13,40 -5,04 65,95 74,79 8,84 6,36 6,08 -0,28 5,80 2,46 -3,34 3,45 3,27 -0,18
Romania 25,57 23,61 -1,95 42,38 54,69 12,31 6,52 11,02 4,49 19,17 7,09 -12,08 6,37 3,59 -2,77
Russia 17,42 16,27 -1,15 56,44 59,62 3,18 6,00 5,81 -0,19 7,85 4,24 -3,61 12,29 14,06 1,77
Slovakia 26,78 19,56 -7,22 56,32 60,91 4,60 5,10 9,49 4,38 5,91 3,94 -1,98 5,88 6,10 0,22
Slovenia 25,69 19,59 -6,10 60,47 66,46 5,98 5,96 7,87 1,91 4,42 2,45 -1,97 3,45 3,64 0,19
Sweden 22,39 16,73 -5,66 66,49 71,02 4,53 4,59 5,89 1,30 3,02 1,87 -1,15 3,51 4,49 0,98
Turkey 29,29 18,44 -10,85 50,00 63,17 13,17 5,62 5,04 -0,58 11,81 9,16 -2,65 3,27 4,19 0,92
Taiwan 26,51 22,99 -3,52 62,20 71,37 9,17 4,90 2,36 -2,54 3,49 1,91 -1,58 2,91 1,37 -1,54
USA 15,50 12,25 -3,25 75,77 79,38 3,62 4,19 3,64 -0,55 1,24 1,19 -0,05 3,31 3,54 0,23
limitations to introduce new technology that could increase the generation of value
added.
In the other hand, value added in China has a peculiar behavior. In spite of being
industry the block that major contribution makes to value added, as could be expected at
first, it is services which makes the highest contribution to value added. In 2011
services contributed 43% to value added whereas industry contributed 33% (the highest
percentage that it is possible to observe). Besides, we can say that the sectors that more
production generate are different to the sectors that major contribution makes to value
added, may be reflecting the low quality of production, probably due to their levels of
development.
In addition to this we have commented we have to take into account
relationships between countries, and sectors involved in trade. About this we are going
to talk about in next section.
3. External specialization.
As it is known yet, in absolute terms, USA, China, Germany and Japan are the
countries that export and import more. However, as occurred with production, in per
capita terms this change and Luxemburg and Ireland are the countries where higher
exports and imports are observed. The reasons below that seem to be the same as we
have explained before, which could be noticed when we focus on sectorial
specialization.
Firstly, global exports are centered in electrical and optical equipment in most of
the years. So, we can say that the more exporter sector could be classified as industry of
high and medium-high technology. Nevertheless, we have to take into account that each
country is different and it depends on its economic structure.
For instance, in Australia and Canada the most important sector is Mining and
Quarrying because of the richness of its resources. In fact, together with Indonesia,
Mexico or Russia, their exports are centralized in energy sector (especially due to
resources of petroleum). The weight of exports in this sector, in respect with total
exports, is 60% in 2011 in Australia and 38% in Russia, being these percentages at the
same level in 1995. This seems to indicate that these countries, that are rich in row
resources, use their ‘comparative advantage’, which is coherent with David Ricardo’s
theories.
It is surprisingly again the case of China, being electrical and optical equipment
the most relevant sector in its exports, instead of textile sector. Even, the rate of growth
of exports in this sector is bigger than in textile sector, 22.12 and 12.96% respectively.
This could be indicative of a structural change where industry with major intensity in
technology is gaining relevance in Chinese economy.
In the other hand, Luxemburg, Ireland and Malta are the countries where exports
of services are more relevant. Particularly, in Luxemburg the weight in total exports of
services is 60%, being the contribution of financial sector the most important. The same
happens in the case of imports, as 85% of total imports in this country are generated by
services sector. This fact, together with previous results, seems to confirmed that growth
in Luxembourg (as in Ireland) is motivated for its ‘fiscal advantages’ that makes this
country being specialized in financial intermediation in spite of the low value added that
this sector involve, as we have said before.
In terms of importations it is significant its variability and the increasing
relevance of energy sector, that shows the increasing necessities of petroleum of
different countries, as we have seen in the case of exports too. A good example is the
case of Spain, where imports of energy sector grow significantly with a rate of growth
of 12.86% between 1995 and 2011.
We have also to talk about imports and exports destined to final demand, in
other words, to final households’ consumption and to final governments’ consumption.
Exports and imports destined to final households’ consumption seems to be focused on
food, beverages and tobacco sector, although in countries with less level of
development textile sector appears as relevant sector in their exports, as is the case of
China, Indonesia or Turkey. In Italy textile sector has a high weight too, being this
sector, traditionally, part of the structure of this country. We can say that may be there
are differences between the textile sector in countries such as China or Indonesia and
Italy. In the last, the quality of products is a great deal higher in Italy than in China, for
instance; which could be the result of the level of technology and maturity of the sector
in each one.
Through the final households’ consumption realized inside a country and the
exports destined to final consumption of households it is possible to approach to tourism
sector. This sector could be measure as the sum of two subsectors; hotels and
restaurants and transportation and storage6. In that way we can see that the most tourism
countries are Spain, Malta, Cyprus and Greece, representing 24%, 24%, 21% and 21%,
respectively, of total final households’ consumption. This seems coherent if we take
into account the geographical y climatological features of these countries. Moreover,
6 These sectors are included in rest of services due to the lack of R&D data.
these sectors have special relevance in the total exports services in Malta and Cyprus,
representing 42% and 38% of that. So we can say that most part of benefices of tourism
there, are due to services offered outside.
Related to final consumption of governments we can say that, both at absolute
and per capita terms, the countries where more weight has consumption of governments
are European countries, such as Denmark, Sweden or France. This could be explained
for the increasing participation of Estate in European countries, in the period study, with
the objective of keeping the welfare state. The sector that more relevance gets in total
exports and imports is chemical and chemical products sector. It is possible to find two
explanations to this. First, these kinds of products involve high technology and high
costs of investment. So most of enterprises, usually, take patents to maximize their
benefices, particularly in pharmaceutical sector. In that way, one form to obtain this
kind of products is trade. Together with this, Chemical sector is a strategic sector for
governments, explaining the importance of this sector in interrelations between
countries. In general, governments tend to focus on strategic sector. For instance, in
1995, Public Admin and Defense also gets relevance in exports and imports destined to
governments’ consumption. In that sense, we have to note how strategic sectors changes
along the time. If we observed evolution of consumption of governments, we can see
that in 2011 Public Admin and Defense have less importance in exports destined to
governments’ consumption than Renting of machinery and equipment. This could be
showing bigger exchange of ‘technology’ between countries due to the increasing
relations between them.
Until now, we have explained the economic structure of economies, both
internal and external. However, there is an important element that we have to analyze,
capital investment, which in WIOT tables is shown in demand part. On this we will
focus in next section.
4. Capital investment.
Capital investment is an important element to improve means of production and
to increase productivity, which seems to be a key factor to explain growth. However,
Antonia Diaz & Luis Franjo (2014) show a fact that has occurred in Spain in the period
studied. From 1995 to 2007 it is observed rates of growth for Spain between 2% and 3%
despite the low total factors productivity. Antonia Diaz & Luis Franjo (2014) explain
that this growth had been possible because of the high investment in structures, most of
which had been beneficed of subsidies. Nevertheless, it investment in equipment had
been hardly inexistent, by contrast with other countries, like USA, which has suffer less
the current crisis than Spain. The conclusion we can get is that not only matters the
amount invested but also where is invested. In this section we are going to analyze
internal and external investment and where it is located, through the study of gross fixed
capital formation.
China and USA are the countries where we found the highest investment, in
absolute terms. However, if we observe rates of growth of investment we see
differences between both. China achieves an average rate of 18%, while USA has an
average rate of 4%, which keeps stable until 2005. Since this year rate of growth of
investment started to decline and in 2008 this rate gets negative. Similar evolution can
be observed in Canada. So, the question now is could it has been a previous symptom of
a crisis? It is curious that in European countries investment didn’t start to decline until
2008, when the crisis ‘explodes’. In Germany, a reference country in European Union,
rate of growth of gross fixed capital was 22% in 2007 and -10% in 2009. Why?
Perhaps, the symptoms of a possible deceleration of the economy, noticed in USA and
Canada, has been hidden by the ‘protection system’ associated to European Union.
Analyzing the internal sectorial structure of gross fixed capital (see table 4) we
find an interesting fact. In all countries, investment in Construction is the most
important. We have to notice that in most countries investment in this sector represents
more than 60% and in some countries such as Spain, Ireland or Cyprus investment in
construction represents near 80% of total domestic investment, being a signal of the
boom generated around this sector. This seems to confirm what Antonia Diaz & Luis
Franjo (2014) show. Differences between countries are observed in investment destined
to equipment. In Germany, USA and the BRIICs investment in equipment represents,
between 15% and 20% of total domestic investment. By contrast, in other countries, as
is the case of Spain, this percentage only achieves figures near to 2%. Perhaps, these
differences may explain different behavior during the recent crisis. However, it is
observed a common evolution of investment in equipment. The weight that investment
in equipment represents of total investment declines since 2000-2001 approximately in
all economies except Brazil. Could this behavior of investment in equipment be another
symptom of a crisis?
Table 4: sectorial specialization of capital.
% Construction % Equipment
1995 2011 Diference 1995 2011 Diference
Australia 76,68 24,69 -51,99 4,08 1,77 -2,31
Austria 54,63 54,49 -0,14 7,51 2,90 -4,61
Belgium 59,92 59,46 -0,45 3,25 0,67 -2,58
Bulgaria 59,46 67,69 8,22 12,28 7,81 -4,47
Brazil 51,99 55,35 3,36 25,77 22,21 -3,56
Canada 75,76 71,78 -3,98 5,00 5,37 0,37
China 66,83 65,10 -1,72 20,83 23,67 2,84
Cyprus 84,45 76,59 -7,87 0,23 1,17 0,94
Czech Republic 57,88 59,75 1,87 8,78 14,50 5,72
Germany 58,03 52,35 -5,68 12,83 15,44 2,61
Denmark 59,99 56,83 -3,16 2,42 2,43 0,01
Spain 68,88 67,00 -1,88 3,99 2,78 -1,21
Estonia 56,19 67,80 11,61 8,28 0,76 -7,52
Finland 61,00 76,34 15,34 11,80 5,46 -6,35
France 56,46 55,47 -0,99 7,82 4,94 -2,88
UK 55,12 60,60 5,48 6,38 4,31 -2,07
Greece 75,73 64,30 -11,43 6,07 4,33 -1,74
Hungary 53,04 54,80 1,76 10,96 8,88 -2,08
Indonesia 79,80 90,37 10,57 14,58 3,66 -10,92
India 49,25 65,22 15,97 30,68 17,57 -13,11
Ire land
78,55 83,00 4,45 6,52 5,80 -0,72
Italy 53,12 52,71 -0,41 16,62 13,24 -3,38
Japan 60,01 55,55 -4,46 20,48 17,26 -3,23
Korea 63,43 65,40 1,97 22,13 17,64 -4,49
Lithuania 74,73 68,98 -5,75 3,28 1,89 -1,39
Luxemburg 76,24 77,58 1,34 1,23 0,01 -1,22
Latvia 73,67 67,44 -6,23 4,24 0,51 -3,73
Mexico 69,39 72,57 3,18 10,53 5,18 -5,35
Malta 41,56 51,16 9,60 8,77 0,21 -8,56
Netherlands 56,64 47,94 -8,70 2,94 1,18 -1,76
Poland 61,58 56,44 -5,13 14,76 6,37 -8,38
Portugal 63,87 63,37 -0,50 8,82 5,84 -2,98
Romania 59,00 72,02 13,02 32,25 12,80 -19,45
Russia 74,52 68,72 -5,79 10,63 14,90 4,27
Slovakia 61,58 69,97 8,39 9,06 6,07 -2,99
Slovenia 62,57 69,55 6,98 12,07 1,29 -10,77
Sweden 50,62 60,32 9,70 7,46 9,14 1,68
Turkey 65,01 54,20 -10,82 17,60 11,60 -6,00
Taiwan 63,92 57,13 -6,79 16,66 6,22 -10,43
USA 49,01 40,08 -8,94 22,66 18,00 -4,66
To complete this image we have to talk about the investment that each country
received/send from/to others. In absolute terms the countries where external investment
is higher are USA and Germany, both received and sending. If we observed what
happen with sectors we can say that countries usually invest in other countries in
industry sectors, being the most common sector electrical and optical equipment.
Besides, external investment seems to be destined to equipment. 60% of total external
investment corresponds to equipment and in some countries could represent 80% or
even more. In that sense we can said that, taken into account both external and internal
investment, investment in equipment increase thanks to the gross fixed capital came
from others countries. For instance, in USA total investment in capital represents 31%
of total investment, whereas internal investment was 20%. Despite that the evolution
followed by total investment in equipment is the same that the internal investment in
that sector. Besides, average rates of growth of external investment are near cero or
negative in some cases, being -5% in the case of China. By contrast, in Germany and
Japan we find positive but not high rates. All this facts led to make us again the same
question, is it possible to observe symptoms of a crisis before it would started?
Here we have seen the physical investment but as important as physical
investment is expenditure in R&D, being a key factor to improve the technology use in
production process.
5. R&D expenditure and spillover effects.
R&D data is obtained from OECD data base, particularly from Structural
Analysis databases and we use the file related to R&D expenditure in industry.
However, we do not have data for all countries, such as Malta or Luxembourg. Besides,
disaggregation by sectors is not the same for all countries (this is the case of China or
Denmark). These problems create some difficulties that we have to deal with when we
try to adapt R&D data to WIOT tables. The countries we will work with will be the
following; Germany, Australia, Austria (since 1998), Canada, China (since 2008),
Korea, Denmark (since 2009), Spain, Estonia (since 2005), Finland, France, Greece
(until 2007), Hungary, Ireland (until 2005), Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Poland,
Belgium, Portugal, Czech Republic, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Taiwan,
Turkey, UK and USA. First, we are going to explain what we can derive from R&D
expenditure data. Then, motivated for Thijs ten Raa & Edward N. Wolff (2000), we will
show and explain the final destinations of this R&D expenditure through spillovers
effects between sectors and countries.
5.1. R&D expenditure.
Observing the R&D expenditure data we can say that four countries stand out;
USA, Japan, Germany and China at the end of the period studied. Besides, there is a
positive tendency along the period, despite the beginning of the recent crisis and the
evolution followed by gross fixed capital. The effect of the crisis it is possible to see
better if we observe rates of growth of R&D expenditure. In 2008 and, specially, in
2009 this rate is negative for most countries. For instance, in Japan the rate of growth of
R&D expenditure was 3.5% in 2007 and in 2009 was -11%.
More interesting is the results related to weights of R&D expenditure respect to
output and value added. In countries such as Germany, Finland, Denmark, Japan or
USA the weight respect to output is near to 1% of total output and in the last years is,
even, higher. It is remarkable the case of Spain where it is observed low percentages
that achieves 0.40% in the last year, as is the case of Italy, Netherlands or China since
2008. These differences are important because they may distinguish between innovator
and followers countries, which could be important when we will introduce spillover
effects. Besides, we have to mention the evolution follow by these weights. In most
countries the percentage of R&D expenditure respect output has a significant growth
until 2001, approximately. Since this year this figure decline, particularly in Germany,
Finland, Japan and Denmark; where the R&D expenditure is the highest, as we can see
in graph 1. This evolution seems to be similar to the evolution followed by physical
investment, seen in last section. Perhaps, as we commented in section four, these results
could have been signals of the crisis that would have started in 2007.
The evolution followed by the percentage of R&D expenditure respect to value
added has (see graph 2) similar behavior as the percentage respect to output, although it
is possible to observe some differences. First, the countries where we find the highest
percentage are Finland, Japan, Denmark, Germany, USA and Korea. Besides, in the
case of value added, the R&D expenditure realized by these countries represents over
2% in the last four years. However, in countries such as Spain, Italy or Hungary this
percentage is around 0.8%, being some of the lowest values we can observe. The
evolution followed by the percentage of R&D expenditure respect to value added is
similar as the percentage respect to output in the six countries we focus on. In the cases
of Finland and Germany it is possible to observe a decline around 2000-2001,
approximately. The same negative tendency it is possible to observe in Denmark in the
years we have data for. By contrast, in the cases of USA, Japan and Korea it is possible
to observe a positive tendency with the beginning of the crisis, although in Japan we can
see more oscillations than in the other countries. As we have said before, perhaps these
evolutions could be indicating signals of crisis some years before the start of the current
crisis, as well as happened with physical investment.
Graph 1: percentage of R&D expenditure respect to output.
Graph 2: percentage of R&D expenditure respect to value added.
Japan Germany
Japan Denmark Germany
In section four we have also seen that is not only important the amount invested
but also where is invested. In general, R&D expenditure is located in sectors of high and
medium-high equipment such as Chemicals and Chemicals products, Machinery and
equipment or Electrical and optical equipment; although high technology services gain
positions along the years in some countries such as UK, Spain and USA. For instance,
as can be seen in table 5, in 1995 in Spain R&D expenditure realized in high technology
services represented 10% whereas in 2011 represented over 22%. In USA the change is
more visible, in 1995 R&D expenditure in high technology services represented over
20% and in 2011 this percentage had incremented 20 percentage points, being around
40% in that year. Despite that, countries, in general, have centered their R&D
investment in less sectors along the period studied and R&D expenditure, in the last
years, is usually located in sectors related to equipment sectors or to chemical products;
while at the beginning R&D expenditure was more distributed between sectors.
5.2. Spillover effects of R&D expenditure.
As we have seen, countries invest in R&D focusing in particular sectors.
However, relation between sectors and relations between countries create indirect
effects that are noticing in other sectors and countries. However, these indirect effect
could be different if the analysis is done in ‘quantities’ or in ‘values’. To show spillover
effects of the expenditure realized by the quantities side we use the following
expression7;
R (I-A)-1 y = S (1)
where R is the coefficients matrix of R&D expenditure respect to output and S is the
resulted matrix of spillover effects. We have to say that we build R and y through the
creation of diagonal matrices by parts. For example,
COUNTRY
1
COUNTRY
2
COUNTRY
1
Sector 1 2 4
Sector 2 3 6
COUNTRY
2
Sector 1 5 1
Sector 2 5 7
7 This equation has analogies with that used by Thijs ten Raa & Edward N. Wolff (2000).
In this case we will make a diagonal matrix for each colored area. In that way, we
would obtain a matrix such as the following:
COUNTRY 1 COUNTRY 2
Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 1 Sector 2
COUNTRY 1 Sector 1 2 0 4 0
Sector 2 0 3 0 6
COUNTRY 2 Sector 1 5 0 1 0
Sector 2 0 5 0 7
It is important to say that the analysis is doing in a multiregional perspective, so
matrices of this equation are multiregional. In other words, they include domestic and
external data.
To make the analysis since values perspective we use the following expression:
w (I-B)-1 R= S
where (I-B)-1 is the Ghosh Inverse and w is the value added matrix, created as
the same way as demand matrix. We have to notice that in this case matrix R is the
coefficients matrix of R&D expenditure respect to value added. This expression is
obtained through the calculus of the relationship between Ghosh inverse and Leontief
inverse.
Until now we have explained the methodology used to get the spillover effects
of R&D expenditure. Now we are going to show the main results getting in both
analyses, trying to make a comparative description between the results obtained since
both sides. In graph 3 we show total, external and domestic flow of R&D expenditure
effects, both in quantities and values analysis.
Graph 3 (A): Total, external and domestic flow of R&D expenditure effects (quantities
analysis).
Graph 3 (B): Total, external and domestic flow of R&D expenditure effects (values
analysis).
In graph 3 (A) it is possible to observe a positive tendency, in general terms,
since 1995 to 2003, of the three flows since quantities side. In 2004 there is a decrease
in total and domestic flow, whereas external flow growing continuously until 2007. This
growth could be showing the process of globalization that happened with more
significance in these years. In the other hand, the decrease of total and domestic flow
could be the result of the less percentage of R&D expenditure respect to output we
observe in 2002, 2003, and 2004. Total and domestic flow, since quantities side, comes
back to positive path until 2007, when we find a decline. This decline is probably
reflecting the effect of the begging of current crisis. Between 2008 and 2009 the three
flows stay stable and in 2010 we can see another increase, probably being a small signal
of recuperation. However, this path didn’t continue in 2011 when total, domestic and
external flows decrease again, especially external flow with a rate of growth of 54%
approximately. This could be explained for the less externalization of countries in this
year as a consequence of the evolution of crisis started in 2007.
Since values side it is possible to observe some differences respect to quantities
side. First; as we can see in graph 3, (A) and (B), since quantities side domestic flow is
higher than external flow, but since values perspective the situation is the opposite. In
graph 3 (B), we can see that external flow, since values perspective, is really closer to
total flow and the evolution followed, along the period studied, is practically the same.
In both cases, we observe a positive tendency until 2010-2011, when total and external
flow drastically decline. In 2010 we observe a peak, as a consequence of some
improvements of economies, associated to expansion politics of economy, but in 2011 it
is reflecting the crisis effect. Respect to domestic flow the evolution is similar to total
and external flow, although the decline observed between 2010 and 2011 is not as
significant as in the case of external and domestic flow.
Now we are going to focus on countries. In that way, we are going to show what
countries are exporters and what countries are importers in net terms. Results obtained,
from one and another side, are different. For instance, the main exporters in the case of
quantities perspective are USA, Germany and Japan; whereas form values side the main
exporters are USA, Germany, Japan, France and Finland. This can be seen in graph 4,
(A) and (B), respectively. We have to notice that in graph 4 we show the net imports
respect external flow, so positive values indicates that imports are higher than exports
and negative values the opposite.
Graph 4 (A): percentage net imports respect external flow from quantities side.
Graph 4 (B): percentage net imports respect external flow from values side.
As we can see in graph 4 (A) (we remind that exporter countries have negative
values, while importer countries have positive values), the main exporter in most years
is USA followed by Japan and Germany, as we have said before. In fact, the average
percentage of net exports is 14.43%, 3.94% and 3.51% respectively. This is coherent if
we take into account that they are some of the countries with the higher R&D
expenditure.
Focusing on graph 4 (B), we can said again that the main exporters are USA,
Japan, Germany, France and Finland with an average rates of net exports of -7.13%, -
6.28%, -9.16, -3.91% and 2.36% respectively. In four of these countries we find the
highest percentage of R&D expenditure respect to value added (see graph 2), so is not
strange that these countries appear as great exporters of R&D. However, the case of
France is curious as it don’t have a great R&D expenditure, so probably this is
indicating that it is a country whose value added involved more R&D expenditure than
others. In graph 5 (A) and (B) we show the evolution of net imports of the great
exporters since both perspectives, in order to observe difference and similarities.
Graph 5 (A): Evolution of percentage net imports respect external flow of USA, Japan
and Germany, quantities side.
Graph 5 (B): Evolution of percentage net imports respect external flow of USA, Japan,
Germany, Finland and France, values side.
As we can see in graph 5 (A), since quantities side, the three countries have
different behavior along the period studied. USA in ten years increase the percentage of
net imports, being less negative, even in 2005 USA becomes an importer country with a
percentage of net imports of 10%. By contrast, Japan improves its position as main
exporter during these ten years, while Germany keeps its net imports stable since 1995
to 2005. In the crisis years the behavior changes in the three countries. In USA the
tendency is negative, being exports of spillover effects higher than imports, although we
find a peak in 2007 and in 2010, as well as happens in Germany and Japan. Despite
that, since 2005 to 2011 Japan and Germany have had similar tendency, although
Germany becomes an importer country in these years whereas Japan keeps it exporter
position with percentages around -5% approximately.
Since values perspective, it is observed an increase of net imports in the three
countries we have talked about yet. This is especially remarkable in the case of Japan,
where since quantities perspective at first it was a net importer and then only during
crisis years net imports slightly increase. Whereas since values perspective it is seen an
increase of net imports since 2004, approximately, that continues during crisis years.
This could be associated to the values chains that globalization has created. In the case
of USA and Germany differences are not as notable as in the case of Japan, as since
quantities side it is also observed an increase of net imports along the time, particularly
in Germany. The behavior of net imports in Finland and France is really similar,
keeping stable their net imports around -3%, until the beginning of the crisis, when it is
observed more oscillations probably associated to the crisis effect.
It is interesting to observe what sectors contribute to generate this spillover
effects. This is shown in table 6 (A) and (B).
Table 6 (A): contribution of sectors to imports of R&D expenditure, quantities side.
USA Germany Japan
1995
Transport, eq. 49.97 40.02 13.81
Chemicals 16.25 36.64 17.06
Electrical and optical, eq. 11.39 7.94 52.25
HTS 8.03 0.72 0.75
2003
Transport, eq. 43.92 40.44 16.28
Chemicals 19.83 39.60 16.75
Electrical and optical, eq. 6.16 3.19 47.45
HTS 13.61 2.63 3.58
2011
Transport, eq. 18.79 36.97 9.05
Chemicals 17.73 34.42 17.88
Electrical and optical, eq. 40.68 3.84 44.96
HTS 8.59 6.01 2.64
Table 6 (B): contribution of sectors to imports of R&D expenditure, values side.
USA Germany Japan Finland France
1995 Transport, eq. 39.51 40.76 14.47 3.04 55.39
Chemicals 20.79 35.47 24.01 17.60 9.83
Electrical and optical, eq. 6.94 5.52 32.92 27.66 2.99
HTS 11.25 1.12 2.94 16.69 6.45
2003 Transport, eq. 30.90 50.00 14.69 1.35 45.62
Chemicals 15.96 24.29 13.42 7.29 6.22
Electrical and optical, eq. 3.69 2.87 36.87 38.22 3.70
HTS 23.81 3.53 11.08 22.70 7.00
2011 Transport, eq. 25.23 47.85 21.62 1.88 40.76
Chemicals 19.23 21.03 14.15 4.17 4.44
Electrical and optical, eq. 21.34 2.82 29.11 49.61 3.99
HTS 25.03 7.02 9.28 23.37 10.65
First, we have to say that it is found small changes between the two perspectives,
quantities and values. Since quantities side, in 1995, Germany based its exports in
Chemicals and chemicals products and Transport equipment. This situation keeps along
all the period studied. Germany make most of it R&D expenditure in this sectors the six
years, so our result is coherent with this fact. In Japan the most important sector is
Electrical and optical equipment in the whole period; although in 2004 and 2005
chemicals and chemicals products and transport equipment get some importance to. The
behavior of this country is curious because the main R&D expenditure is realized in
Machinery at the beginning of the period and it is not until the middle when most part of
R&D expenditure is realized in Electrical and optical equipment. These facts, perhaps
are explained for the crisis of the 90s in Japan and the famous ‘loss decade’, which we
have mentioned before and could be affected enterprises and government behavior in
90s decade. Finally, exports of spillover effects in USA are, mainly, focused on
Transport equipment and Chemicals and chemicals products. In USA case we find more
variability along the years, for instance, in 1999 high technology services gain relevance
until 2005 and in 2011 instead of Transport equipment the most important sector is
Electrical and optical equipment. Since this year the contribution of high technology
services to generate spillover effects in others countries has keep stable. However, 28%
of R&D expenditure in USA in 2011 corresponds to high technology sectors. The
possible explanation is that the externalization of services, nowadays, is limited,
especially in comparison with industry. To sum up, we can say that in general terms the
sector that more spillover effects generated are sectors of high and medium-high
technology, which is something that countries should take into account when they
realized R&D expenditure.
In the case of values side, Transport equipment, Chemicals and chemicals
products and Electrical and optical equipment are, also, the most important sectors in
the five countries, at less at the beginning of the period. Since 1995, we can observe, in
some countries such as USA and Finland, an increasingly relevance of HTS, being this
the great difference respect quantities side. In fact, while in 1995 HTS represented 11%
and 16% respectively in 2011 this percentage get values over 20%.
Coming back to graph 4, it is observed that the main importers of effects of
R&D expenditure, since quantities side, are Canada, Mexico, Spain and Korea. We
don’t have data of China until 2008, so it is not possible to know what happens in
previous years. Since 2008, China is also an important importer of R&D expenditure.
From values side the main importers are Turkey, Mexico, Russia and Rumania, with
average rates of net imports around 3%. It is remarkable the China case, with an
incredible percentage of net imports since the quantities perspective while since values
perspective it is a net exporter. From our point of view, this could be associated to the
value chains, which are more important in the recent years, as we commented before for
the case of Japan and its R&D exports. In graph 6 we show the evolution followed by
net imports in these countries.
Graph 6 (A): Evolution of percentage net imports respect external flow of Canada,
Mexico, Spain, Korea and China, quantities side.
Graph 6 (B): Evolution of percentage net imports respect external flow of China,
Russia, Rumania, Turkey and Mexico, values side.
We observe some differences between the four countries, from quantities side, as
we can see in graph 6 (A). In Canada we observe a negative tendency since the
beginning of the period studied until 2005, approximately. Since that year, net imports
come back to the level of 1998, being around this value during the crisis. In the case of
Mexico the percentage of net imports keeps stable, around 5%, until 2004. In this year
we observe a decline and since then it is seen a positive tendency although with
oscillations. In Spain, the percentage of net imports respect external flow is around 3%
until 2007, perhaps due to the surplus of its payments balance. Between 2006 and 2007
we observe an increase, when imports of goods and services were the highest of euro
area. Then, in 2008 it is seen the crisis effect, getting percentages under 3% in the
following years. Net imports in Korea keeps stable too around 3% along all the period
studied. However, it is observed a peak in 2004, probably due to the external
relationships. Finally, we have to talk about China. As it has been said before, we only
have data since 2008. The percentage observe is the highest, getting values over 10%,
and since 2010 it is seen a spectacular increase, achieving a percentage of net imports
over 11% in 2010 and 17% in 2011. As Chinas economic features seems to be similar
after 2011, probably this tendency will have continue in the time.
From values side, we can observe that China is a net exporter and only in 2010
net imports were positive, achieving a value near 3. In general, in the four countries,
Turkey, Russia, Rumania and Mexico it is observed a negative tendency, only in 2010 it
is observed an slightly increase when there is a generalized increase of net imports in all
countries except UK, where the net exports get values around 50%, as we can see in
graph 4 (B).
Now we are going to focus in the sectors that more contribute to net imports, in
quantities and values side again, that it is shown in table 7 (A) and (B). Since quantities
perspective, in general, in Canada, Mexico, Spain and Korea the most significant sector
is Transport equipment. However, in 1997 electrical and optical equipment have a great
contribution too. In the other hand, in 2004 construction has some importance in Korea
and rest of services is gaining positions since this year in the other three countries. In
that way, res of services would be an important sector, mainly, in Spain. Finally, in
China the highest contribution to net imports corresponds to electrical equipment.
Besides, this contribution increases gradually each year. We can conclude that the more
importer sectors are sectors of high and medium-high technology, except in the case of
Spain where rest of services is gaining weight since 2004 to the end of the period. This
fact, perhaps, has made Spanish economy weaker than the others.
Table 7 (A): contribution of sectors to exports of R&D expenditure, quantities side.
Canada Spain Mexico Korea China
1995
Transport, eq. 68.86 48.97 43.16 24.26
Electrical and optical, eq. 4.69 3.49 17.74 18.28
Construction 4.30 6.06 4.68 11.83
RS 9.36 19.02 11.94 15.40
2003
Transport, eq. 57.93 41.55 42.95 33.17
Electrical and optical, eq. 3.52 2.74 15.98 23.01
Construction 5.61 7.41 5.71 9.60
RS 12.13 19.54 12.32 12.70
2011
Transport, eq. 44.34 34.53 32.00 28.87 6.01
Electrical and optical, eq. 9.56 3.19 30.09 27.15 44.36
Construction 7.11 6.07 5.18 8.12 13.10
RS 15.21 21.50 9.92 14.21 8.25
Table 7 (B): contribution of sectors to exports of R&D expenditure, values side.
Turkey Rusia Mexico Rumania
1995
Transport, eq. 11.26 11.24 11.3 11.31 Electrical and optical, eq. 4.82 4.81 4.84 4.83 HTS 20.18 20.3 20.32 20.43 RS 19.62 19.63 19.64 19.63
2003
Transport, eq. 6.8 6.78 6.97 6.82 Electrical and optical, eq. 7.47 7.49 7.53 7.41 HTS 23.23 22.58 23.04 23.23 RS 23.55 23.66 23.53 23.75
2011
Transport, eq. 5.63 5.88 5.69
Electrical and optical, eq. 8.48 8.58 8.49
HTS 23.92 23.85 24.13
RS 20.78 20.63 20.79
From values side we can say that sectors of high technology, such as electrical
equipment, Chemicals or Transport equipment, are also important but less than in
quantities perspectives. This is because since values perspective HTS and RS has also a
great importance, as we can see in table 7 (B). For example, in 2011 in Turkey HTS and
RS represented 23% and 20% respectively, and the same happens with the rest of
countries. So the big difference is that services sector has more importance since values
side than quantities perspective, representing the sum of both sectors over 40% of total
imports of R&D.
In that way we can conclude that the results obtained using Leontief and Ghosh
inverse are different. We have use both perspectives because, for us result interesting to
compare those results obtained in terms of output (Leontief inverse) with those obtained
in terms of value added o generated value, and to observe similarities and differences.
There are two main differences between both sectors that we have to remark. First, in
value side the indirect effect generates in other countries is so important, influencing the
evolution of total flow of spillover effects. This, perhaps, is due to the globalized
context that the economies work in and the tendency to outsource and externalize
supply chains. Finally, in value terms, services sectors have more relevance, both as
generator and receptor of spillover effects, reflecting the importance of this kind of
sectors to generate value added in the economies.
6. Conclusions
The objective of this paper has been to have an image of what has happened in
the world in order to have a better understanding of the factors that influence growth in
developed countries.
First we have seen that USA and China have been the major producers between
1995 and 2011. However, in per capita terms this changes and Luxemburg appears in
first positions, what could be explained for its fiscal features. This could be seen when
we analyze the structural specialization of each country, being financial intermediation
the main sector in Luxemburg’s economy. In spite of that, we find a common pattern in
most countries, where services are central in occidental economies and a standstill of
industry.
External specialization is also important and occidental countries tend to export
products related to high and medium-high technology sectors. However, it is also
observed that countries rich in resources centered their exports in mining and quarrying
or electrical sector, using their comparative advantage. Here is also remarkable
Luxemburg case, being the only country that focuses its trade on financial
intermediation.
An important variable to explain growth is investment in capital. However it is
not only important the amount invested but also where it is invested. We see that all
countries destined their investment to construction sector. However, we find some
differences, so that USA destined part of its investment to equipment, representing near
of 40% of total investment, while in other countries this percentage is the half. It is also
important the evolution followed by capital investment, particularly in USA and Canada
where it is observed a decline since 2005.
Finally, as important as investment in capital is R&D investment. USA and Germany
are the countries where R&D expenditure is the highest, together with Finland and
Denmark. We analyze the R&D expenditure in monetary and quantity terms. If we
analyze spillover effects in quantity terns, we can see that the key country is USA, being
its spillover effects the most important, particularly those derived from Transport
equipment, chemicals, electrical and optical equipment in the last years or high
technology services. However in monetary terms, five are the drivers of R&D
expenditure; USA, Germany, Japan, Finland and France. So the factors that generate the
indirect effects are different if we are thinking in quantities or in values. In quantities,
seem to be more important the relationships between countries and the amount
associated to trade, while from values side it is not only important the level of
externalization but also the amount invested. Another important fact is that the external
effect of R&D expenditure increase along the years and the similar evolution we find
with total flow since values perspective. This, probably, is indicating the importance
that externalization has in value terms.
Finally, thinking about the results obtained, it is possible to say that perhaps
there have been some signals of deceleration in occidentals’ economies before 2007,
when current crisis started. For example, the role of industry in the majority of the
economies is decreasing each year; capital investment is located in construction sector
instead of equipment sectors, where technology is more important; and both in capital
investment a R&D expenditure it is observed deceleration in important economies such
as USA or European economies. Besides, in terms of value added we find that the major
receptors of R&D are services sector, both rest of services and high technology services,
sector that have limitations to introduce technological innovations. It is a preliminary
study, so we have to make a more detailed analysis. In that way, our next objective is to
know how the factors studied in this paper determine different paths of growth and
make one economy stronger than other, facing with difficult situations, such as the
current crisis whose effects have not finished yet, probably using a SDA as
methodology.
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