Post on 30-Aug-2020
LA COSTA CATALANA SOTA EL CANVI CLIMÀTIC IMPACTES I ADAPTACIÓ
(3er informe)
A. SANCHEZ-ARCILLA, J. P. SIERRA , V. GRACIA, M. GARCIA LEON & C. MOSSO
Total length ~700 km Sandy beaches ~250 km Urban beaches ~150 km Open beaches ~75 km Armoured coast ~40 km Cliffs ~208 km
CATALAN COAST DIMENSIONS:
STORM IMPACTS
331 SANDY BEACHES
Total Invest
Inve
st (
M€)
INVESTMENT
A
(IPCC, 2013)
Likely range, 66%
Upper limit (95%, RCP8.5), 1.8m
AR-4
AR-5
o Increase from AR4 to AR5 o Probabilistic characterization
Jevrejeva et al, 2014
“Coastal” climate change o Global to regional sea level o Average long term projections
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Temp
eratu
re ºC
Estartit Yearly Averaged Mean, Min and Max Temp.Yearly Averaged Mean TemperatureYearly Averaged Max TemperatureYearly Averaged Min Temperature
Lionello et al S.-Arcilla et al (data from J. Pascual)
“Coastal” climate change o Regional MSL and T ºC (average) projections o River liquid & solid discharges
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
To
tal d
am
s c
ap
acit
y (
Hm
³)
0
100
200
300
400
500
Mean
peri
od
dis
ch
arg
e (
m³/
s)
125 150 175 200 225 250d50 ( mm)
360
380
400
420
440
460
Qcr (
m3 /
s)
sección Tramuntano
sección Garxal
Sand transport threshold
Dam capacity
River discharge
MEDCORDEX GRID (.44degs) • ERA-INTERIM
1979-2011
• Past climate simulation
1951-2005 • RCP4.5 2006-2100 • RCP8.5 2006-2100
High End physical scenarios • Up to 2.0m SLR
• Up to 1.0m subsidence RSLR rates from 1 to 3m
Vulnerability hotspots • Deltas • Wetlands (lagoons…) • Urban beaches
Flooding (bathtub model): loss of territory
Tordera delta
Flooding by 1.0m RSLR
Flooding by 2.0m RSLR
Flooding by 3.0m RSLR
Area flooded by first meter RSLR
Area flooded by second meter RSLR
Area flooded by third meter RSLR
Flooding o High-end
conditions o Bathtub
modelling
Llobregat delta
Flooding by 1.0m RSLR
Flooding by 2.0m RSLR
Flooding by 3.0m RSLR
Area flooded by first meter RSLR
Area flooded by second meter RSLR
Area flooded by third meter RSLR
Flooding o High-end
conditions o Bathtub
modelling
Ebre delta
Flooding by 1.0m RSLR
Flooding by 2.0m RSLR
Flooding by 3.0m RSLR
Area flooded by first meter RSLR
Area flooded by second meter RSLR
Area flooded by third meter RSLR
Flooding o High-end
conditions o Bathtub
modelling
Pf ≥ 2 PfULS
PfULS ≤ Pf < 2 PfULS
0.5 PfULS ≤ Pf < PfULS
Pf < 0.5 PfULS
PROBABILITY OF FAILUREDesign useful life
RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
43
7161
69 73
84
73 7585
74 75
87
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Girona Barcelona Tarragona
Non
acc
epta
ble
failu
re b
each
es [
#]AR5 Projections
Present conditions RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
8689
83 84
99 101 102
86 83
2050 Projections2100 ProjectionsRCP 4.5 RCP 8.5RCP 2.6
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.1
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Dire
ctio
nal p
roba
bilit
y of
failu
e w
ithin
a y
ear
Pf projections - Lloret
Actual RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Dire
ctio
nal p
roba
bilit
y of
failu
e w
ithin
a y
ear
Pf projections - L'Estartit
Actual RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
Pf,ULS = 0.1
Pf,ULS = 0.01
Pf,ULS = 0.2
Pf,ULS = 0.1
Pf,ULS = 0.01
STUDY SITE
Local impact projection – Urban beaches (vulnerability hotspot)
TEST CASES
PRESENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
(0m) RCP 4.5 (0.47m)
RCP 8.5 (0.88m)
High End (1.80m)
Beach Normal Wave
incidence
Tr=1 yr • • • • Tr=5 yr • • • •
Tr=50 yr • • • •
time (hours)
Hs (m)
0 24
Erosion before – after storm (erosion depth in m)
Flooding at t=12.5 hours (water depth in m – minimum 0.1m )
Coastal impacts as a function of storm shape
PRESENT CONDITIONS
EROSION BARCELONETA BEACH Tr=50 YEARS (present PDF)
EROSION BARCELONETA BEACH Tr=50 YEARS HIGH END LIMIT
FLOODING BARCELONETA BEACH Tr=50 YEARS HIGH-END
CC effects on coastal infrastructure: overtopping railway lines (Imagen: El Periódico)
Tract Masnou – Premià de Mar
CC effects on coastal infrastructure: local overtopping detected by wet areas in promenade fronting railway lines
Acceptable overtopping volumes (Fukuda limits)
Direction E Tr=50 years MWL=0.2m
Direction E Tr=50 years MWL=0.88m
Direction E Tr=50 years MWL=1.8m
Scenario 0
Colera
Port de la Selva
Aiguablava
L’Estartit
Arenys de Mar
Port Olímpic
Llançà
BlanesCala Canyelles
Port Fòrum
Scenario 1
Colera
Port de la Selva
Aiguablava
L’Estartit
Arenys de Mar
Port Olímpic
Llançà
BlanesCala Canyelles
Port Fòrum
Barcelona
Scenario 2
Colera
Port de la Selva
Aiguablava
L’Estartit
Arenys de Mar
Port Olímpic
Llançà
BlanesCala Canyelles
Port Fòrum
Llafranc
Coma-rugaBarcelona
Scenario 3
Colera
Port de la Selva
Aiguablava
L’Estartit
Arenys de Mar
Port Olímpic
Llançà
BlanesCala Canyelles
Port Fòrum
Llafranc
Coma-ruga
BarcelonaVery HighHighMediumLowVery Low
S. Feliu Guíxols
Port d’Aro
Roda de Barà
Segur de Calafell
Cambrils
L’Ampolla
Alcanar
Escenaris: Escenari 0 → Situació actual: +0 m Escenari 1 → RCP4.5: +0.47 m Escenari 2 → RCP8.5: +0.88 m Escenari 3 → HES: +1.80 m Onatge: Tr = 50 anys: Tempesta excepcional Ultrapassament tolerable: De 200 l/s/m (res darrere del dic) A 0.4 l/s/m (mercaderies i equipament al moll)
Novel / Green
Interventions
Environmentally Friendly
Limited Impact
Energetically Friendly
Longer Duration
Different services
Different Phys/S-E Conditions
Flexible
Functional (under new conditions)
Modifiable
Adaptable
controlled flooding
Enhanced vertical accretion
Efficient responses
Efficient coastal responses under Climate Change should consider Multiple scale pressures: combined riverine/marine factors (ave. trends + extremes) Multiple scale responses: full catchment basin (avoiding short term “mortgages”)
RIVER
COAS
TAL
FRIN
GE
COAS
TAL
SEA
ideal management scale
usual management scales
Final Remarks 1. Management scales
Final Remarks 2. Selection of interventions
Maldives Is. SOTON 2014
Efficient coastal responses under Climate Change should consider Novel + conventional interventions (working with Nature e. g. pulsing events) Performance in terms of risk and contribution to climate mitigation Rising grounds (high end conditions)
Acknowledgements: PlanWave research project. Spanish Ministry of Science. CTM 2013-45141-R
LA COSTA CATALANA SOTA EL CANVI CLIMÀTIC IMPACTES I ADAPTACIÓ
(3er informe)
A. SANCHEZ-ARCILLA, J. P. SIERRA , V. GRACIA, M. GARCIA-LEON & C. MOSSO