Al filo de una catástrofe ecológica inminente. Notas en torno al posible colapso del capitalismo y...

7/23/2019 Al filo de una catstrofe ecolgica inminente. Notas en torno al posible colapso del capitalismo y la necesidad de

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Kc aice dl ugk mktstreal lmecjimk igìglgtl. Getks lg terge kc pesibcl meckpse dlc

mkpitkcisè y ck glmlsidkd dl ugk rlvecumig semikc mkylgde lg lc kbisè

@ijulc Aulgtls @uezCimlgmikde lg Histerik y Krqulecejk (\givlrsidkd dl Mhicl)

@klstrk lg Krqulecejk / Vrejrk`k dl Demterkde (\givlrsity Meccljl Cegdeg)

Lgskye lg prlpkrkmig

Qlrsig prlciìgkr ( ck dljrkdkmig dl cks megdimiegls mci`timks predumte dlc mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc hkdlnkde dl slr ug alg`lge jrkdukc pkrk megvlrtirsl lg ug premlse lxpeglgmikc (ge ciglkc) qullstkrk k pugte dl lxplri`lgtkr, lg lc trkgsmurse dl kcjuges kes, ug alg`lge dl kmlclrkmigi`pkrkbcl dl megslmulgmiks igi`kjigkbcls pkrk ck vidk lg lc pckgltk. Vlre vlkès kmegtigukmig kcjugks dl lstks igaer`kmiegls meg `s dltkccl y megtigulès gulstrk dismusigsebrl ugk bksl `s megmrltk.

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Cks miarks dlc mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc. Lg cks pulrtks dl ugk pesibcl digìmk dl skcteskbruptes

\gk dl cks prigmipkcls dismusiegls lg terge kc mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc durkgtl cks cti`ks dmkdkshk lstkde rlalridk kc givlc dl ku`lgte dl ck tl`plrkturk ùgdikc ksemikdk k lstl ctiè

(mkgtidkd dl jrkdes mlgtjrkdes), ks meè tk`big k ces ritès y ck digìmk tl`perkc lg ckmukc dimhe ku`lgte pedrk predumirsl (kes, dmkdks e sijces). Lg jlglrkc, lxistl megslgse lgpckgtlkr qul tede ku`lgte dl ck tl`plrkturk jcebkc suplrier k 2 jrkdes mlgtjrkdes pedrk tlglrlalmtes mktkstraimes sebrl ck vidk dlc he`brl y cks lsplmils gkturkcls lg lc pckgltk. Ver lcmegtrkrie, ug ku`lgte per dlbkne dl lstk bkrrlrk (2 jrkdes), si bilg ksemikde pesibcl`lgtl k`ctipcls prebcl`ks lg lc `bite lmecjime, lmegìme y pectime igtlrgkmiegkc, prlslgtkrktedkvk ug mkrmtlr rlvlrsibcl.

Vuls bilg, megemilgde yk ck lxistlgmik dl lstk bkrrlrk mktkstraimk dl ces 2 jrkdes mlgtjrkdes,dlès kherk ugk ìrkdk k ck lvecumig dl cks prigmipkcls prldimmiegls mci`timks kmlrmk dlcku`lgte dl cks tl`plrkturks ugdikcls lg lc trkgsmurse dlc prlslgtl sijce. Durkgtl lc ke 266:,

lc rlmegemide Vkglc Igtlrjublrgk`lgtkc sebrl lc Mk`bie Mci`time (IVMM) prldine ugku`lgte dl ; jrkde lg ck tl`plrkturk jcebkc pkrk lc ke 2;66. \g ke `s tkrdl, lc Mlgtre

Hkdcly pkrk ck Igvlstijkmig dl @ltlerecejkèdiaim lstk igaer`kmig, pregestimkgde ugku`lgte dl 2 M pkrk meìlgzes dlc prxiè sijce. Bilg, ge sulgk tkg `kc ge5 Lste si

plgskès qul pkrk lc ke 2;66 ces autures kvkgmls milgtaimes y tlmgecjimes pedrgdlskrrecckr, meè dudkrce!, kcjg tipe dl tlmgecejk iggevkderk pkrk cidikr meg lstk situkmig.Y mkse mlrrkde qul ce dl`s ce sijkg dismutilgde ces lme-kmtivistks.

Vlre meè vlrlès kherk ck mesk ge ls tkg slgmicck meè dlmir mkse mlrrkde, kqulcce sebrl

tede si tlglès lg mulgtk qul lg lc trkgsmurse dl til`pe trkgsmurride dlsdl ck pubcimkmig dldimhks prldimmiegls milgtaimks ces edlces sl hkg dlspckzkde, milrtk`lgtl, k lsmlgkries umhe`lges akverkbcls. Meè quldk mckre k megtigukmig, sebrl tede si megsidlrkès qulkmtukc`lgtl ck tl`plrkturk jcebkc ldik yk hk ku`lgtkde lg 6.88 jrkdes mlgtjrkdes, vlrlèsqul lc ksugte ls ug peme s me`pcimkde meè pkrk dlnkrce lg cks kges dl ces pkrtides vlrdls.Lste ctiè sebrl tede si tlglès lg mulgtk qul hk side ck ìs`k meùgidkd milgtaimk ck qulhk rlkcizkde ugk slril dl merrlmmiegls k sus lsti`kmiegls prlviks rlsplmte k ces ritès dlcmkclgtkìlgte jcebkc, dlalgdilgde kherk ugk preylmmig ge sce `kyer dlc ìsè, sige qulkdl`s ùmhe `s vlrtijigesk. Lg lc ke 2669, per lnl`pce, ck EG\ prldine ug ku`lgte dl=.< M pkrk lc 2;66, kair`kgde kdl`s qul ug ku`lgte dl lstl tipe i`pcimkrk ck dlskpkrimigdl ck `kyerk dl ces hbitkts gkturkcls lg lc pckgltk2. Kqulcce dlbide k qul ug ku`lgte dl cktl`plrkturk dl lstl tipe emksiegkrk ck ùlrtl dl ck mksi tetkcidkd dlc pckgmteg lxistlgtl lg ces

emkges (bksl dl ck mkdlgk kci`lgtkrik dl ces lmesistl`ks `kriges), predumigdesl kdl`s ckdlskpkrimig dl ug i`pertkgtl permlgtknl dl cks pckgtks tlrrlstrls. Ls glmlskrie rlmkcmkr kqu,lgtrl etrks mesks, qul ces slrls hu`kges nk`s hkg vivide lg ug pckgltk muyk tl`plrkturkjcebkc `ldik slk =.< M suplrier k ck kmtukc.

Vlre lste ge ls tede. Lg lc ke 2669, lc yk `lgmiegkde Mlgtre Hkdclyrlkciz ugk merrlmmigdl sus lsti`kmiegls prlviks, ainkgde kherk ug ku`lgte dl 4 M pkrk lc ke 2616 (ls dlmir muktredmkdks kgtls dl ce lstkbclmide erijigkc`lgtl). Ksiìsè, k aigkcls dl kqulc ke, lc JcebkcMkrbeg Vrenlmty lc Meplghkjlg Dikjgesisprldinlreg k su vlz ug ku`lgte dl ck tl`plrkturk`ldik jcebkc lg 1 M y : M pkrk lc 2;66. Kcjg til`pe `s tkrdl, ck EG\ rlkciz durkgtl lcke 26;6 ugk merrlmmig dl sus èdlces kgtlrierls, ainkgde pkrk lc ke 26


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jrkdes. Aigkc`lgtl, durkgtl ces kes 26;2 y 26;=, ck Kjlgmik Igtlrgkmiegkc dl ck Lglrjk (KIL)lsti`, re`pilgde tedks cks prldimmiegls kgtlrierls, ug ku`lgte dl 2M pkrk lc 26;:,

pckgtlkgde kdl`s ug ku`lgte dl =.< M pkrk lc ke 26= mktstreals ig`iglgtls

Vlre mucls pedrkg slr cks megslmulgmiks dl ug ku`lgte dl cks tl`plrkturks jcebkcls dlkmulrde k cks lsti`kmiegls yk rlalridks5 Vkrk rlspegdlr k lstk prljugtk, ls i`pertkgtl rlmerdkrck yk `lgmiegkdk bkrrlrk dl ces 2 jrkdes mlgtjrkdes. Lg etrks pkckbrks, tlglr lg mulgtk qul,tkc me`e rlkair`krk lc prealser Vltlr Zkdhk`s dl Mk`bridjl durkgtl ck rlugig dlc Krmtim

L`lrjlgmy @lthkgl Jreup(K@LJ) lg Ci`k, ug ku`lgte dl lsl tipe dkrk pkse, meg tedkmlrtlzk, k ug lsmlgkrie dl mk`bies `ldiek`bilgtkcls iglvitkbcl`lgtl mktkstraimes pkrk cksemildkd y ck vidk lg lc pckgltk.

=


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Lgtrl etrks mesks, dimhe ku`lgte slrk lc dltegkgtl dl ugk slril dl dlèclderls lalmtes sebrlces sistl`ks semikcls kcrldlder dlc ùgde, pudigdesl `lgmiegkr kqu kcjuges tkcls meè cessijuilgtls> hk`brugks igditks, mkrlgmik jlglrkcizkdk dl kjuk y rlmurses bsimes lg divlrsksrljiegls dlc jcebe, kctlrkmig dl ces pktregls dlnlt strlk` y dl cks merrilgtls emlgimks, dkgdelste per rlsuctkde lc dlskrrecce dl lvlgtes mci`times lxtrlès tkcls meè tergkdes l

igugdkmiegls ùmhe `s vieclgtes y arlmulgtls, ìjrkmiegls pebckmiegkcls splr `ksivkspredumte dl ces mk`bies dl ces pktregls kjrmecks, èrtkgdkd emlgimk dlbide k ck `kyerkmidlz dl ces `krls, displrsig dl lgalr`ldkdls trepimkcls k gulvks zegks dlc pckgltk, subidkdl givlcls dlc kr y hugdiìlgte prejrlsive dl pebckdes y miudkdls, lgtrl etres lalmtes. Tedelste sig megtkr meg ces prebcl`ks lmegìmes, semikcls y pectimes qul dimhes alg`lges

predumirkg lg ck lsmlgk igtlrgkmiegkc, megtgdesl lgtrl kqulcces lc dlskrrecce dl ck quilbrklmegìmk dl gu`lreses lstkdes lg ck krlgk igtlrgkmiegkc y lc lstkccide dl julrrks rljiegkclsdl igtlgsidkd igsesplmhkdk. Lg etrks pkckbrks, ug tipe dl mrisis jlglrkcizkdk dl ck semildkdmkpitkcistk me`pkrkbcl kc emurride durkgtl ck pri`lrk ìtkd dlc sijce XXe ug lsmlgkrieùmhe pler.

]i megsidlrkès kherk ug igmrl`lgte dl ck tl`plrkturk jcebkc lgtrl = y 4 jrkdes mlgtjrkdes,ls dlmir ug tipe dl mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc nk`s lxplri`lgtkde per lc he`brl lg lc trkgsmursedl su lxistlgmik meè lsplmil, lste i`pcimkrk, tkc meè kair`k lc yk mitkde prealser Zkdhk`s,ge sce lc dlskrrecce dl ugk mrisis jlglrkcizkdk dl ck semildkd mkpitkcistk, sige qul kdl`s lc

petlgmikc dlrru`bl dl cks prepiks bksls dl gulstrk mivicizkmig. Verqul5 Lste per kcje ùybsime. \gk mivicizkmig qul dlbl lgarlgtkr ck dljrkdkmig kmlclrkdk, quilbrl rlplgtige ypestlrier meckpse dl su bksl kci`lgtkrik, sijuilgde gulvk`lgtl k Zkdhk`s (y k ck cjimk), gepedrk `s qul karegtkr ugk lspirkc dl mrisis jlglrkcizkdk qul tlr igkrk, iglxerkbcl`lgtl, lgsu dlrru`bl. Y si tlglès lg mulgtk qul ug ku`lgte dl ck tl`plrkturk suplrier k ces =. Lstkdes \gides y Mhigk, hkg hlmhe pbcimk su vecugtkd lc ke

pkskde pkrk kcmkgzkr ug kmulrde ùtue pkrk ck rldummig dl jksls dl lalmtes igvlrgkdlre.Kclcuyk!, sebrl tede si rlmerdkès qul hkg side kqulccks petlgmiks quilgls sl hkg gljkde k


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air`kr lg lc pkskde, sistl`timk`lgtl, mukcquilr kmulrde lg lstl slgtide. Dl lstl ède, slrkcjime plgskr qul ces jeblrgkgtls kcrldlder dlc ùgde hkg me`lgzkde, per aig!, k lgtrkr lgrkzg, lìtilgde ugk cuz dl lsplrkgzk kgtl ck alge`lgkc mrisis mci`timk qul sl kprexi`k.

Vlre muidkde, kgkcimlès ug peme `s dl aegde lstl kmulrde.Vri`lre qul gkdk, dlblès

getkr qul, tkc meè pckgtlk ugk getk dl Thl Glw Yero Ti`lspubcimkdk lg gevil`brl dlc 26;44,ge lxistl tedkvk kmulrde kcjuge lg lstk ktlrik, sige qul lrk`lgtl ug `krme dl kmulrde?ls dlmir, gkdk. Lg rlkcidkd, lc kmulrde rlkcsce slrk kcmkgzkde lc 2626 (kqulcce sce si cks

pectimks igtlrgks dl dimhks petlgmiks ge seg èdiaimkdks lg lc igtlrtkgte), megsistilgde kqulclg lc me`preìse dl LL\\ y Mhigk pkrk rldumir sus lìsiegls dl dixide dl mkrbege lg ug2 per lnl`pce lxijilgde ck air`k dl ces yk igsuaimilgtls (ydlsakskdes) pretemeces dl Oyete. @s tedkvk, k `s dl `ldie ke dl ck rlkcizkmig dl ckmu`brl mci`timk lg Vkris megvemkdk pkrk Dimil`brl, yk sl hkg me`lgzkde k lsmumhkr cks

pri`lrks vemls, prevlgilgtls dl divlrses jebilrges lureples, tlgdilgtls k rlbknkr cks

lxplmtktivks dl kcmkgzkr lg dimhk mu`brl ug kmulrde igtlr-jublrgk`lgtkc lalmtive pkrk lvitkrug ku`lgte dl ck tl`plrkturk jcebkc suplrier k 2 jrkdes mlgtjrkdes durkgtl cks prxi`ksdmkdks


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dimhks me`pkks dl qul`kr ck tetkcidkd dl sus rlslrvks lg pltrcle, ksmlgdilgde lstks cti`ksdl kmulrde k milrtks lsti`kmiegls k s dl 2:96 jijkteglckdks, ls dlmir ugk miark k`pcik`lgtlsuplrier k cks


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etres ck julrrk mivic lg \mrkgik, ck situkmig lg @ldie Erilgtl y ck irrupmig dlc cck`kde Lstkdeiscìme). Y pkrk kair`kr lste bkstk meg ebslrvkr lc visibcl y metidikge glrviesisè qul igugdkces `lrmkdes igtlrgkmiegkcls mkdk vlz qul sl megemlg getimiks lg terge k ugk `kyerdlskmlclrkmig dl ck lmege`k mhigk e dl etrks petlgmiks ùgdikcls.

Ls slgmicce, ck lmege`k mkpitkcistk si`pcl`lgtl ge puldl dlsmeglmtkrsl, lgclgtlmlrsl esiquilrk megtreckrsl. Kc jrite dl pcusvkck e ùlrtl, k ck mcksl mkpitkcistk ge cl quldk etrk

epmig qul vlgdkrsl ces enes kgtl lc vlrdkdlre dlskstrl lmecjime qul tilgl dlckgtl suye. Lstectiè y peglrsl k rlzkr pkrk qul kcjg jlgie igvlgtl kcjugk qul etrk tlmgecejk ìckjresk (y

bkrktk) qul cl plrìtk skcvkr ck situkmig (kugqul sig ugk èdiaimkmig sustkgmikc dlc

dlslgarlge mkpitkcistk qul ck lgjlgdr) y megtigukr ks mkbkcjkgde dirlmte kc kbisè, cclvkgdek tedk ck hu`kgidkd meg lcck. Y lg lstk mkbkcjktk suimidk, igtlgtkr sljuir l`bkumgdeges megcks akrsks dl Jrllgplkmly cks diktribks dl uge qul etre pectime l`prlskrikc y sus ìslrkbclsmk`pkks pkrk skcvkr dlcaigls l i`pucskr lc rlmimcknl lmecjime lg cks lsmulcks. Tede lste,ìlgtrks cks petlgmiks i`plrikcistks sijulg veìtkgde biccegls dl teglckdks dl `ktlrikclstximes kc `ldie k`bilgtl, kjrkvkgde ks lc yk plcijressiè prebcl`k dlc mkclgtkìlgte

jcebkc.

Kherk bilg, ls qul kmkse ck situkmig puldl slr pler5 Ck`lgtkès dlmirce, plre s. Cksitukmig puldl slr, tedkvk, ùmhe pler. Dl hlmhe, ces autures prebcl`ks qul lc mk`biemci`time kgugmikg pkrk ck kjrimucturk y ck jkgkdlrk ùgdikc, ks meè tk`big kqulccesrlckmiegkdes meg ugk `kyer arlmulgmik dl lvlgtes mci`ktecjimes lxtrlès, mkdk uge dl cesmukcls kmkrrlkr lalmtes dlskstreses pkrk ck vidk dl milgtes dl ìccegls kcrldlder dlc jcebe,

pedrkg ge slr gkdk me`pkrkde meg etre rilsje qul meìlgzk k k`lgkzkrges. Lstl rilsje tilglug ge`brl mckre> ck be`bk dl til`pe dlc `ltkge. Lg lstl mkse, lrk lc prepie pckgltk lc qul gestlgk rlslrvkdk ugk serprlsk cltkc.

\g kslsige jcebkc lg jlstkmig> lc `ltkge

Meè dlmiès, cks mesks puldlg peglrsl lalmtivk`lgtl s alks. Y lg lstl pugte yk lgtrkèsdl cclge kc `bite dl ugk plcmuck dl Heccyweed, kugqul lg lstl mkse ugk dl tipe ùy rlkc ysig lalmtes lsplmikcls. Lg rlkcidkd, kqu ces lalmtes lsplmikcls pedrk lgtrljkrces ck prepikjlecejk. Lste dl megtigukr ck ciblrkmig dl cks jrkgdls mkgtidkdls dl `ltkge kc`kmlgkdks lglc subsulce (eplr`karest) dlc rtime meè predumte dl cks kctks tl`plrkturks qul hk lstkdelxplri`lgtkgde dimhk rlk.

Vkrtkès per hkmlrges ugk idlk dl lstl rilsje. Tkc meè kair`k ck mci`ktcejk Gktkcik

]hkohevk, ck mkgtidkd dl `ltkge lxistlgtl kmtukc`lgtl lg ck kt`salrk ls dl < jijkteglckdks,megstituylgde lstl ctiè uge dl ces jksls dl lalmte igvlrgkdlre `s petlgtls qul lxistlg (sui`pkmte ls ugks ;26 vlmls suplrier k ck dlc dixide dl mkrbege lg lc merte pckze). Ver su pkrtl,lcplr`karest(ug tipe dl slcce lstrktijraimet tipe turblrk dl kctk me`pesimig erjgimk) y lcclmhe `krige dl ]iblrik megtlgdrkg kc`kmlgkdes, gtlsl qul sece lg ck rljig siblrikgk, ugkkse`bresk mkgtidkd dl lgtrl ;66 y ;666 jijkteglckdks dl dimhe jks. Lg etrks pkckbrks, vkriksvlmls ck mkgtidkd dl jksls dl lalmte igvlrgkdlre predumidks per lc he`brl lg ces ctiès dessijces (vlr aijurk =):.

:Lxpcimkmig dl ck aer`kmig dlcplr`karesty ces hidrktes dl `ltkge.


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Aijurk =. Dixide dl mkrbege (igdustrikc) y ciblrkmiegls petlgmikcls dl `ltkge

Lste quilrl dlmir qul, sijuilgde k ]hkohevk, ck aujk dl tkg sce lc ;% dl lstks rlslrvksgkturkcls dl jksls dl lalmte igvlrgkdlre bkstkrk pkrk dupcimkr ck mkgtidkd dl `ltkge lxistlgtlkmtukc`lgtl lg ck ktèsalrk. Meè puldl supeglrsl, lste sijgiaimkrk qul, igmcuse lg lc mksedl predumirsl ugk akgtksiesk dltlgmig tetkc dl ck lmege`k ùgdikc, ck kt`salrk tlrrlstrlslrk rlvlgtkdk meg ugk mkgtidkd dl jksls dl lalmte igvlrgkdlre lquivkclgtl k vkriks vlmls lcdixide dl mkrbege (ME2) lìtide per lc he`brl dlsdl lc igimie dl ck Rlvecumig Igdustrikc,kqulcce tkg sce lg lc trkgsmurse dl kcjugks dmkdks. Ijukc`lgtl, lstk ciblrkmig `ksivk dl`ltkge jkticckrk, dlbide k sus prepildkdls meè jks dl lalmte igvlrgkdlre, ugk drk`timkkmlclrkmig dlc ku`lgte dl cks tl`plrkturks jcebkcls, akverlmilgde meg lcce ugk disìgumig`s rpidk dl ces hilces lxistlgtls lg ces peces. Ce kgtlrier tlgdrk meè megslmulgmik, lgtrl

etrks mesks, ugk `lger mkpkmidkd dl rlaclxig seckr dl ces mksqultls peckrls (lsplmikc`lgtl lcrtime) y, per ce tkgte, ug ku`lgte lxpeglgmikc dl cks tl`plrkturks `krigks predumte dl ck`kyer lxpesimig dl ces emkges k ces rkyes dlc sec (alg`lge megemide meè rldummig dlclalmte kcblde). Ccljkde k lstl pugte, ces èdlces mci`times prepeglg meè kctk`lgtl

prebkbcl lc igimie dl ug alg`lge dl rltrekci`lgtkmieglspesitivks (e mrmuces vimieses)qul akverlmlrk, dl lstl ède, ug `kyer dlrrltiìlgte dlcplr`karesty gulvks ciblrkmiegls,`s vieclgtks, dl `ltkge.

Tede lste supegdrk lalmtes dlvkstkderls ig`ldiktes sebrl ck biesalrk tlrrlstrl, dkgde igimie,meè yk `lgmiegkès, ug drstime igmrl`lgte dl cks tl`plrkturks jcebkcls (e RugkwkyJcebkc Zkrìgj). Tkc meè vlès lg lc sijuilgtl èdlce (aijurk 4), lstl gulve tipe dlmkclgtkìlgte jcebkc (kmlclrkde), igaculgmikde per cks ciblrkmiegls `ksivks dl `ltkge, pedrki`pcimkr qul ck tl`plrkturk jcebkc `ldik dl ck Tilrrk rlbksl ck bkrrlrk dl ces 2 jrkdesmlgtjrkdes lg kcjg pugte durkgtl ck dmkdk dl 2626, lste pkrk kcmkgzkr ug ku`lgte dl =jrkdes k aigls dl dimhk dmkdk y k 4 jrkdes mlgtjrkdes hkmik meìlgzes dl ces kes =6s.Ksiìsè, sijuilgde cks igdimkmiegls dl lstl èdlce dl mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc kmlclrkde, cktl`plrkturk jcebkc pedrk dispkrkrsl k 9 y ;6 jrkdes lgtrl `ldikdes dl ck dmkdk dl 2646 y lcke 26


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Aijurk 4. @edlce ger`kc (;) y kmlclrkde (=) dl ku`lgte dl ck tl`plrkturk jcebkc

Vlre ls lstl èdlce dl mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc kmlclrkde gkdk `s qul ugk hiptlsis, e bilg lsyk ug premlse ebnltive lg murse5 Ck rlspulstk k lstk prljugtk ls lgjkesk. Y lste perqul, si

bilg ck slril dl pckgtlkìlgtes lg terge kc dlskrrecce dl pesibcls lxpcesiegls rlplgtigks ysuplr`ksivks dl `ltkge sijulg pesllg tedkvk ug mkrmtlr hipettime, mulstieggdesl lgùmhes mkses lc ritè y ck igtlgsidkd dl cks ìs`ks, lxistlg per etre ckde ugk slril dli`pertkgtls kctlrkmiegls mci`timks lg murse qul pedrkg kclgtkr ug alg`lge dl lstl tipe lglc auture ig`ldikte.

Lgtrl kcjugks dl lstks kctlrkmiegls rlskctk, lg pri`lr cujkr, lc ku`lgte drk`time qul hkg

lxplri`lgtkde cks tl`plrkturks dlc rtime durkgtl cks cti`ks dmkdks, rljistrgdesl lg milrtkszegks igmrl`lgtes dl s dl ;6 e igmcuse 26 jrkdes mlgtjrkdes per sebrl lc pre`ldie durkgtlkcjuges plriedes dlc ke8. Meè ls cjime supeglr, lste megstituyl ug petlgmikc akmter dlkmlclrkmig lg lc premlse dl dlrrltiìlgte dlcplr`karest y dl ces hidrktes dl ltkge lxistlgtlslg lstks zegks, kclgtkgde meg lcce ug petlgmikc lsmlgkrie dl ciblrkmiegls dl `ltkge `svieclgtks. Hk side nustk`lgtl lstk dlslstkbicizkmig dl cks tl`plrkturks `ldiks lg lc rtime,

petlgmikdk kdl`s per ugk èdiaimkmig dl ces pktregls dl nlkt strlk`lg lc rlk durkgtlmilrtes plriedes dlc ke, ce qul pedrk hkblr yk jkticckde sljg kcjuges milgtaimes, dl hlmhe,lc igimie dl cks ciblrkmiegls suplr`ksivks. Lste ctiè si sl tilglg lg mulgtk ugk slril dl`ldimiegls rlkcizkdks dl ces givlcls dl `ltkge lxistlgtls lg milrtks rlks dl ]iblrik,dltlmtgdesl kcc vkcerls mlrmkges kc debcl dl cks miarks ger`kcls, ks meè tk`big simegsidlrkès cks `ldimiegls sktlcitkcls dl ce qul pedrkg hkblr side, lg ces hlmhes, cks

pri`lrks ciblrkmiegls suplr`ksivks rljistrkdks dl dimhe jks lg ck rljig (vlr aijurk


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Aijurk


11/29

dlskrrecckrsl pedrk pckgtlkr lg cks prxi`ks dmkdks, gkdk `lges, qul ug alg`lge dllxtigmig `ksivk me`pkrkbcl meg kqulcck lxplri`lgtkdk lg ck Tilrrk k aigls dlc plriedeVrìme, ck mukc tuve meè rlsuctkde ck dlskpkrimig dl s dlc 9 ck lxtigmig.

@kcdites pkrsites bilg hkbrkès hlmhe meg l`pkckrces k tedes! Mugte herrer ydlsjrkmik ges hkbrkès kherrkde! Lstks seg cks preaugdidkdls tlglbresks k cks mukcls ges hkckgzkde ck cck`kdk lxpkgsig gleciblrkc dl ck dlèmrkmik per lc ugde! Lstl ls lc predumte dlck sebrlvidk dlc mkpitkcisè, gkdk `lges (gkdk `lges!) qul lc Kpemkcipsis. Kpemkcipsislmecjime ebnltive, rlkc, ic vlmls pler qul ck k`lgkzk dlc Kpemkcipsis gumclkr, lste yk qul lsìc vlmls `s igmegtreckbcl. Kpemkcipsis muyk aisege`k histrimk pesll ug ge`brl mckre, lslge`brl ls mkpitkcisè. Dl kglrk i`prlvistk, ck aisege`k dlc sijce XXI sl ges hk kbilrte kslg su rlkc di`lgsig histrimk> slr lc sijce dl ck bktkcck dlmisivk dl gulstrk lsplmil. K tedkscumls, ges kprexi`kès hkmik ug jrkg mktkmcisè. Ls lgtegmls lc è`lgte dl prlpkrkrges

pkrk dirijirges k kqulc, plclkr lc Kr`kjldg y vlgmlr kc ìsè kpemkcipsis!

;6


12/29

II Vkrtl

Mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc, èdlces y kgkcejks histrimks. E ugk kprexi`kmig igimikc k

kcjuges lsmlgkries pesibcls

Megslgses y dialrlgmiks dl ck milgmik lg terge kc mk`bie mci`time

Vedlès dlmir qul ck meùgidkd milgtaimk hk ccljkde yk k ugk slril dl i`pertkgtls megslgseslg terge k ck prebcl`timk dlc mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc. Lg pri`lr cujkr, lstk hk megair`kde gesce ck lxistlgmik dl lstl ctiè, pulste lg dudk lg dmkdks rlmilgtls, sige qul kdl`s cki`pertkgmik dl ck kmmig hu`kgk lg lc ìsè. ]l hkg rlautkde ks ces prigmipkcls krju`lgtesqul kpugtkbkg k ug prebkbcl erijlg gkturkc dl lstl alg`lge, per lnl`pce kqulcces qul

pckgtlkbkg ck pesibcl rlckmig dlc mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc meg ces mimces dl ck rbitk tlrrlstrlkcrldlder dlc sec, ck igaculgmik dl cks merrilgtls krigks sebrl ck kt`salrk e cks mkrkmtlrstimks

prepiks dl ug plriede igtlrjckmikr. Kugqul sig gljkr qul lstes y etres akmterls gkturkcls hkykgnujkde ug pkplc lg cks èdiaimkmiegls dlc mci`k tlrrlstrl lg lc pkskde, sl hk kmlptkde yk lc

pkplc dl ck kmtividkd hu`kgk meè lc prigmipkc rlspegskbcl dlc mk`bie mci`time. \g lnl`pcedl kqulcce ls qul durkgtl lc 26;=, tkc meè kair`k lc prealser @mVhlrseg lg ugk megalrlgmikrlkcizkdk lg gevil`brl pkskde lg lc Buttl Meccljldl Mkciaergik, aulreg pubcimkdes ;6.88 lg terge kc mkrmtlr dlc akmter mci`time lg ck histerik

Kgtls dl rlkcizkr ugk rlaclxig lg terge k ces pesibcls lsmlgkries histrimes rlckmiegkdes k cesèdlces dl mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc yk `lgmiegkdes, ls glmlskrie rlspegdlr k ck prljugtk dl silc akmter `ldie k`bilgtkc puldl megstituir (y lg qu megdimiegls) ug akmter histrime

dltlrìgkgtl dlc premlse semikc.


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Ck rlspulstk k lstk prljugtk ge ls si`pcl. Dl hlmhe, kqulcck dlplgdlr sil`prl dl ugk slrildl mirmugstkgmiks megmrltks tkcls meè lc tipe dl ediaimkmig k`bilgtkc dismutidk, lc rkgje dltil`pe lg qul lstk sl preduml, lc givlc dl dlskrrecce tlmge-lmegìme dl ces jrupes hu`kgesi`pcimkdes y cks mkrkmtlrstimks dl sus rlsplmtives sistl`ks semikcls. Ces premlses dl mk`bie`ldiek`bilgtkc dlblg lgtlgdlrsl ks, per ce tkgte, lg lc `krme dl ug me`pclne lgtrk`kde dl

akmterls semikcls> lmege`k, erjkgizkmig pectimk, idlecejk, dlplgdilgde dl ck igtlrkmmig dlkqulcces y dl ck gkturkclzk dlc mk`bie k`bilgtkc lc kyer e lger plse qul tlgdr lstl ctièlg ck digìmk histrimk. Dlsdl kqu, lc mk`bie mci`time pedr kdquirir, e ge, ug pkplc meèlcl`lgte digkìzkder dl ces pesibcls premlses dl kdkptkmig rlqulrides per ugk semildkd kgtlugk gulvk rlkcidkd lmecjimk, e bilg per lc megtrkrie megstituir ug akmter dl mrisis (e meckpse)

pkrk dimhk semildkd si lstk aulrk igmkpkz dl hkmlr arlgtl k cks gulvks lxijlgmiks`ldiek`bilgtkcls.

Vegjkès ug mkse. ]i ug milrte mk`bie `ldiek`bilgtkc sl predunlrk dl `kglrk jrkdukc,hkbclès dl milgtes e ìcls dl kes, tlgilgde kdl`s ugk dltlrìgkdk semildkd lc givlc dldlskrrecce suaimilgtl pkrk dkr igimie k ugk digìmk dl iggevkmig tlmgecjimk lg su bksl

predumtivk, lstl mk`bie pedrk nujkr ug i`pertkgtl pkplc digkìzkder lg lc dlskrreccehistrime. Kqulcce per lnl`pce kc givlc dl cks rlspulstks tlmgecjime-kdkptktivks qul lstksemildkd rlquilrk pkrk hkmlr arlgtl k cks èdiaimkmiegls `ldiek`bilgtkcls, pudilgde lstedlmkgtkr igmcuse lg trkgsaer`kmiegls sustkgmikcls dlc ede dl predummig y lc sistl`k pectimedl kqulcck. \g lnl`pce dl ce kgtlrier puldl lgmegtrkrsl lg ck slril dl mk`bies mci`times qulmkrkmtlrizkreg k ck cck`kdk trkgsimig pclistemlge-hecemlge kc aig dl ck lrk jckmikc, ces quldlmkgtkreg lg lc vilne ùgde, culje dl kcjuges ìclgies, lg lc dlskrrecce dl i`pertkgtlsiggevkmiegls tlmgecjimks tkcls meè ck de`lstimkmig dl pckgtks y kgi`kcls. Lg K`rimk, ug

premlse siìckr pedrk hkcckrsl lg divlrses alg`lges lmecjime-kdkptktives qul hkbrkgjkticckde lg milrtks rlks dlc megtiglgtl, k aigkcls dlc plriede krmkime y meìlgzes dlcaer`ktive, ck trkgsimig lgtrl ug ede dl vidk mkzkder-rlmeclmter k uge predumter dl kci`lgtes.

Kherk bilg, si ug dltlrìgkde mk`bie `ldiek`bilgtkc te`krk ug plriede ùmhe `kyer,hkbclès lg lstl mkse dl dlmlgks dl ìcls dl kes, e bilg si kqulc sl predunlrk lg ug lspkmiedl til`pe `s kmetkde plre aulrk ce suaimilgtl`lgtl jrkdukc meè pkrk ge megstituir ugk

prlsig lxtrk sebrl ug jrupe hu`kge, dimhe mk`bie pedrk te`kr kherk ck aer`k dl ug akmterpesibcl`lgtl irrlclvkgtl (e glutre) pkrk lc dlskrrecce semikc. Lste ctiè, e bilg igmcuse kmtukrmeè ug lcl`lgte megslrvkder (rltkrdkder) dlc dlskrrecce tlmge-lmegìme, kqulcce yk qulcks pebckmiegls lg mulstig pedrk kdkptkr sus rlsplmtives èdlces lmegìmes y semikcls sigtlglr qul i`pucskr ugk èdiaimkmig rkdimkc dl su bksl tlmgecjimk. Lnl`pce dl lstl tipe dlkctlrkmiegls mci`timks, qul meè diniès ge hkbrkg i`pcimkde ug mk`bie sustkgmikc lg lc

dlskrrecce mucturkc dl ces jrupes hu`kges i`pcimkdes lg cks ìs`ks, pedrk lgmegtrkrsl lg lcmkse dl cks semildkdls pkclectimks lg lc vilne ùgde durkgtl lc plriede pclistemgime (e lrkjckmikc), lg muyk aksl aigkc hk tlgide cujkr `s dlc 99% dl ck histerik dl gulstrk lsplmil.

Lc lxtrlè epulste dl ces mkses prlvies lstkrk dkde per ug lsmlgkrie dl mk`bie mci`timevieclgte qul i`pesibicitkrk k ug jrupe hu`kge, per ck igtlgsidkd y rkpidlz dlc ìsè, dkr ugkrlspulstk tlmgecjimk lalmtivk, pudilgde prevemkr meg lcce ugk akcck jlglrkcizkdk dl sulstrumturk lmegìmk y ck mrisis (e lc meckpse) dl su sistl`k semikc. Lste ctiè igmcuse lg lcmkse dl qul sl trktksl dl semildkdls meg ug tipe dl dlskrrecce tlmgecjime kctk`lgtl digìme.Lg lstl lsmlgkrie, dimhk mrisis pedrk dkr meè rlsuctkde e bilg lc dlskrrecce dl ug gulve tipedl erjkgizkmig semikc kdkptkdk k cks gulvks megdimiegls `ldie-k`bilgtkcls, e bilg ck

disjrljkmig y/e lxtigmig dlc jrupe hu`kge lg mulstig. Lnl`pces dl ce kgtlrier puldlglgmegtrkrsl, lgtrl etres `bites, lg kcjugks dl cks prigmipkcls lxpcimkmiegls krqulecjimks lg


15/29

terge kc aig dlc plriede `kyk mcsime e lc dlmcivl dl Tiwkgkou, lste kug mukgde lc pkplc dlcakmter mci`time lg dimhes alg`lges hk vlgide silgde plridimk`lgtl rl-lvkcukde.

Etre ksplmte rlclvkgtl k `lgmiegkr kqu ls ck mkpkmidkd qul pesllrk ck lstrumturk pectimk dldltlrìgkdks semildkdls (lsplmikc`lgtl cks dl tipe lstktkc) pkrk akmicitkr, rltrkskr e bilg

bcequlkr cks glmlskriks kdkptkmiegls dl ug sistl`k semikc kgtl ug lsmlgkrie `ldie-k`bilgtkcmk`bikgtl. Lg lstl ctiè mkse, ck megtrkdimmig lxistlgtl lgtrl lc mkrmtlr megslrvkder dlcsistl`k pectime y cks pesibicidkdls (bcequlkdks) dl dlskrrecce tlmge-lmegìme, pedrkg kskclgtkr lc dlskrrecce dl ugk i`pertkgtl mrisis lstrumturkc dl ck semildkd lg su megnugte, lsteigmcuse lg lc mkse dl qul kqulcck mrisis pudilrk slr amic`lgtl sertlkdk si sl tilgl lg mulgtk lcgivlc dl dlskrrecce tlmgecjime dl ck semildkd lg mulstig. \g lnl`pce dl lstl alg`lge pedrklgmegtrkrsl lg kcjuges dl ces pckgtlkìlgtes dlc krqulceje Jerdeg Mhicdl lg su lxpcimkmiglg terge kc pkplc megslrvkder (rlkmmiegkrie) dl cks lcitls dirijlgtls dlc Kgtijue Ljipte lg lclstkgmkìlgte tlmgecjime qul lxplri`lgt dimhk mivicizkmig lg sus aksls `s tkrdks dldlskrrecce.

Hk side nustk`lgtl ug lsmlgkrie meè lc kgtlrier lc qul hk uticizkde ug rlmilgtl lstudiemilgtaime, aigkgmikde pkrmikc`lgtl per ck GK]K y bkskde lg ck kpcimkmig dl èdlces`ktl`times prldimtives dl kgcisis semikc (HKGDY èdlc), pkrk prepeglr ug pesibcl meckpseigìglgtl dl ck mivicizkmig megtl`perglk. Lstl lstudie hk lstkbclmide meè prebkbclsakmterls dl meckpse ck lxistlgmik dl ug sistl`k igtlrgkmiegkc preaugdk`lgtl lstrktiaimkde, lcku`lgte pebckmiegkc dlsmegtreckde, ck mkrlstk jcebkc dl rlmurses y lc mk`bie mci`time.Ksiìsè, kqulc hk slkckde meè etre dl ces akmterls qul sl lgmegtrkrkg lg ck bksl dl lstl

pesibcl meckpse dl ck semildkd èdlrgk lc pkplc megslrvkder dl cks lcitls ùgdikcls, muykkmmig lstkrk i`pidilgde (e bcequlkgde) cks glmlskriks rlspulstks kdkptktivks kgtl kqulcces

prebcl`ks lstrumturkcls> per lnl`pce ck rlgevkmig tlmgecjimk dl ces pktregls predumtivesbkskdes lg me`bustibcls asicls.

Lc mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc meè akmter mktkstraime y ugk kdvlrtlgmik lg terge k ces èdlcesprldimtives

Tlgilgde lg megsidlrkmig ce dimhe hkstk kqu, me`prlgdlès lc mk`bie mci`time meè ugakmter dl erdlg mktkstraime lg ck digìmk histrimk megtl`perglk, dlstkmkgde su gkturkclzkdl hlmhe histrime tetkc meg i`pcimkgmiks disruptivks (mrlmilgtls) lg tedks cks lsalrks dl ckvidk semikc. Dlsdl kqu, rlskctkès su pkplc meè pesibcl mktkcizkder dl cks prigmipkclsmegtrkdimmiegls lmegìmks, pectimks y mucturkcls dlc prlslgtl. Lste tkgte per sus i`pcimkgmiksjcebkcls (lxtlgsig ùgdikc), su digìmk dl dlskrrecce k merte pckze (mkrmtlr igìglgtl) y

per ck lxistlgmik dl ug sistl`k pectime igtlrgkmiegkc muye augmiegkìlgte tlgdrk meèrlsuctkde kjrkvkr (ls dlmir `kxiìzkr) ces lalmtes gljktives dlc ìsè. Meg tede, rlskctkèslc hlmhe dl qul ck gkturkclzk mktkstraimk dlc mk`bie mci`time ge dlblrk lgtlgdlrsl dlsdl lc

pugte dl vistk dl ug rlsuctkde histrime gime (per lnl`pce lc meckpse dl ck mivicizkmig), sigequl kc ède dl ug akmter muye dlskrrecce sl lgmegtrkrk kbilrte k distigtes lsmlgkries (edlslgckmls) pesibcls, dlplgdilgde lste ctiè dlc murse qul te`lg ces divlrses akmterlsebnltives y subnltives dlc premlse histrime.

\g lnl`pce dl akmter histrime mktkstraime dl lstl tipe (kbilrte) puldl hkcckrsl, per lnl`pce,lg ck mrisis lmegìmk igtlrgkmiegkc dl ;929. Meè skblès, lc igimie dl lstk cti`k gesijgiaim lc ksmlgse ig`ldikte dlc Aksmisè e lc lstkccide dl ck ]ljugdk Julrrk @ugdikc, sige

qul dlmkgt lg dimhes alg`lges dlspus dl ugk slril dl lvlgtes histrimes. Vkrk lc mkse dlcmkclgtkìlgte jcebkc, dlplgdlr per ce tkgte dl ck igtlgsidkd y vlcemidkd dl su dlskrrecce


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(digìmk ger`kc e kmlclrkdk), dl ck lvecumig dl ck kmtukc mrisis lmecjimk y dl cks `ldidksqul sl te`lg pkrk lgarlgtkrce (per lnl`pce i`pcl`lgtkmig dl gulvks tlmgecejks e kmulrdesjublrgk`lgtkcls pkrk cidikr meg lc ìsè), qul sus lalmtes pedrg dlmkgtkr lg ck kplrturk dluge u etre lsmlgkrie histrime. Etre dl ces akmterls k tlglr lg mulgtk lg lc murse qul te`l lcmk`bie mci`time ls, lgtrl etrks mesks, lc pesibcl kvkgml dl premlses semikcls e pectimes

kcrldlder dlc jcebe qul i`pciqulg ugk èdiaimkmig dl cks pectimks kgtl lc ìsè, kctlrkgdemeg lcce ck digìmk histrimk ksemikde k kqulc.

Mukgde kair`kès ks qul lgtlgdlès lc mk`bie mci`time meè ug akmter histrime dl erdlgmktkstraime, lste quilrl dlmir qul su pkplc lg lc dlskrrecce semikc kmtukc slrk me`pkrkbcl, perlnl`pce, k kqulc qul tuvilreg cks jrkgdls mrisis lmegìmks, julrrks y rlvecumiegls predumidksdurkgtl lc sijce pkskde. Lste sebrl tede si sl tilglg lg mulgtk cks mkrkmtlrstimks kmtukcls dlcsistl`k lmegìme y pectime mkpitkcistk, `krmkde per lc dlskrrecce dl ugk jrkvl mrisislmegìmk y dl i`pertkgtls alg`lges dl iglstkbicidkd jlepectimk. \g lnl`pce dl kqulcce

puldl lgmegtrkrsl lg lc pkplc qul tuvilreg ugk slril dl slquiks rljiegkcls (y ck lsplmuckmigaigkgmilrk dl cks jrkgdls igdustriks kci`lgtkriks) lg lc lstkccide dl cks cck`kdks Rlblcieglsdlc Hk`brllg @ldie Erilgtl y arimk lg til`pes rlmilgtls, predumte dirlmte dl ugk rlplgtigksubidk lg lc prlmie dl ces kci`lgtes durkgtl ces kes 2668 y 26;2. Etre lnl`pce dl ce ìsèaul lc rec qul tuve lc mk`bie mci`time lg lc lstkccide dl ck Julrrk lg ]irik, ck qul dl kmulrdek ug rlmilgtl lstudie dl igvlstijkderls kaicikdes k cks \givlrsidkdls dl Mkciaergik y Mecu`bikhkbrk tlgide lgtrl sus akmterls digkìzkderls cks sumlsivks slquks qul kalmtkreg k dimhe pkslgtrl lc 266: y lc 26;6.

Aijurk :. Mrisis kci`lgtkrik l iglstkbicidkd semikc

Dl lstl ède, ck `kyer e `lger i`pertkgmik dlc mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc meè akmter histrimeslr lvkcukdk lg lstl lgskye k pkrtir dl des ksplmtes mckvls> k-Igtlgsidkd(e g`lre dl jrkdesmlgtjrkdes i`pcimkdes lg lc ku`lgte dl tl`plrkturks) y b-Ritè (e vlcemidkd dlc ku`lgtelxprlskdk lg kes y dmkdks). K `kyer igtlgsidkd y `lger lc plriede dl til`pe igvecumrkdelg lc mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc (ls dlmir k ugk vlcemidkd `kyer dlc ìsè), su i`pertkgmik meè


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akmter histrime slr, per ce tkgte, `kyer qul lg lc mkse epulste? ls dlmir, pesllr ugkdltlrìgkgmik histrimk `s dirlmtk.

K megtigukmig, sigtltizkgde cks preylmmiegls dl ces èdlces dl mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc`lgmiegkdes kgtlrier`lgtl y sus pesibcls megslmulgmiks pkrk ck pebckmig ugdikc (aijurks 8

y 9), rlaclxiegkrlès lg terge k trls pesibcls lsmlgkries histrimes pkrk lc dlskrrecce dl ck mrisislmecjimk pckgltkrik lg murse> mrisis lstrumturkc, meckpse mivicizkterie y lxtigmig `ksivk.

Mkclgtkìlgte Jcebkc @edlce ger`kc @edlce kmlclrkde+ ; M 26;8 26;1+ 2 M 26=< 262=+ = M - 4 M 2641 / 26


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prlvie y megtilgl lg s lc petlgmikc pkrk lc dlskrrecce dlc sijuilgtl (aijurk ;6). Kc ìsètil`pe, mkdk lsmlgkrie megtkrk lg su dlskrrecce meg ces lcl`lgtes glmlskries meg ces mukclskbertkr e ighibir lc lsmlgkrie sijuilgtl, plrìtilgde meg lcce ck kplrturk dl ug murse histrimekctlrgktive. Lste sijgiaimkrk, per lnl`pce, qul lc lsmlgkrie dl lxtigmig `ksivk megtlgdrk lgs, glmlskrik`lgtl, ces è`lgtes prlvies dl meckpse y mrisis. Ver lc megtrkrie, ìlgtrks qul lc

lsmlgkrie dl meckpse me`prlgdlrk lc dl ck mrisis lstrumturkc, lstk cti`k ge i`pcimkrkglmlskrik`lgtl lc dlskrrecce pestlrier dl ug alg`lge dl lxtigmig `ksivk, lste kug mukgdeckpesibicidkddl kqulcck yk lstkrk megtlgidk lg lc premlse dl meckpse. ]ijuilgde lstk cjimk,

puldl dlmirsl ks qul lc è`lgte dl mrisis lstrumturkc, ubimkde lg ck bksl dl gulstrk pirìdl,tlgdrk lgtrl sus pesibicidkdls dl dlskrrecce tkgte ces lcl`lgtes (petlgmikcls) pkrk sutrkgsaer`kmig lg meckpse mivicizkterie, ks meè tk`big kqulcces meg ces mukcls pedlr ighibir,lg dltlrìgkdks mirmugstkgmiks, dimhe lsmlgkrie cktlgtl. Meè hlès `lgmiegkdekgtlrier`lgtl, dlplgdlr tkgte dl ck igtlgsidkd y lc ritè dlc mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc, ks meètk`big dlc mkrmtlr qul kdquilrk ck mrisis lmegìmk mkpitkcistk y ces alg`lgesigtlrgkmiegkcls dl iglstkbicidkd jlepectimk y semikc lg murse, lc tipe dl dlskrrecce y cksmkrkmtlrstimks qul kdquilrk uge u etre lsmlgkrie.

Meg tede, cks epmiegls dl ighibimig dl ug milrte dlskrrecce histrime (cktlgtl) slrg `sk`pciks lg tkgte kqulc sl ubiqul s mlrmk dl ck bksl dl ck pirìdl mkuskcyk rlalridk. Lste

puldl jrkaimkrsl rlckmiegkgde lc lstrlmhkìlgte prejrlsive dl lstk ctiè lg sus givlclssuplrierls meg cks `lgerls prebkbicidkdls qul tlgdr lc dlskrrecce histrime lg kqulcces pkrkèdiaimkr lc murse uctlrier dlc premlse jlglrkc. Tede lste ges hkbckrk ks, per ce tkgte, dl ugalg`lge dl kmlclrkmig histrimk mrlmilgtl mkrkmtlrizkdk per ck rldummig prejrlsivk dlcherizegtl dl divlrjlgmik(e dl pesibcls lsmlgkries kctlrgktives) qul prlslgtl lc premlse dlmegnugte. Dimhe dl etrk `kglrk, ug alg`lge dl meckpse mivicizkterie lg lstkde kvkgzkdetlgdr ug `lger `krjlg dl divlrjlgmik histrimk qul uge lg aksl igimikc, silgde megsistlgtl cekgtlrier meg ck prepik digìmk ebnltivk dlc mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc, ck mukc igdistigtk`lgtl dlcèdlce megsidlrkde sl mkrkmtlrizk per ugk kmlclrkmig mrlmilgtl dlc ìsè (aijurk ;;).

Aijurk ;6. Virìdl mkuskc

LXTIGMIEG

MECKV]E

MRI]I] L]TR\MT\RKC


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Aijurk ;;. @edlces dl mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc y kmlclrkmig lxpeglgmikc

k- Lsmlgkrie ;> Mrisis lstrumturkc. E lgtrl lc gkmiìlgte dl I]I] y ck se`brk dl cks Julrrks@ugdikcls

Lxistl kmulrde lg ck meùgidkd milgtaimk lg pckgtlkr qul ug ku`lgte lgtrl ; y = jrkdes

mlgtjrkdes trklrk megsije, dl aer`k mksi ig`ldiktk, ugk slril dl mktkstraimes lalmtes jcebkclspkrk ck pebckmig ugdikc. Lgtrl kcjuges dl lstes ctiès, visibcls yk k ede igimikc, pedlès`lgmiegkr ces sijuilgtls> igmrl`lgte dl ces prlmies dl ces kci`lgtes y dlskrrecce dl hk`brugksigditks, ìjrkmiegls suplr`ksivks, mkrlgmik dl bilgls dl megsuè bsimes, mrisis skgitkriks,hugdiìlgte dl zegks pebckdks k mkusk dlc ku`lgte dlc givlc dl ces emkges, kyer arlmulgmikdl lvlgtes mci`times lxtrlès, ltm. Meè puldl supeglrsl, ge ls glmlskrie slr lxplrte pkrk

prldlmir lc pkplc kctk`lgtl dlslstkbicizkder qul tlgdrkg dimhes alg`lges sebrl ck krlgkigtlrgkmiegkc, kqulcce si sl tilgl lg mulgtk kdl`s ck pesibcl me`bigkmig dl lstes ctiès megces qul pedrk trklr megsije ck kmtukc mrisis lmegìmk y lc ku`lgte dl cks disputks jlepectimksy semikcls lg divlrsks zegks dlc pckgltk.

\g lnl`pce dl ces lalmtes petlgmikc`lgtl lxpcesives qul pedrk tlglr ck me`bigkmig dlcmk`bie mci`time y ugk situkmig pectimk y semikc mkdk vlz `s iglstkbcl, puldl lgmegtrkrslhey lg ck yk lgmiegkdk situkmig dl @ldie Erilgtl y lc gertl dl arimk. Meè skblès, lstksrljiegls hkg vlgide silgde jecplkdks lg ces ctiès kes per ug megnugte dl sumlsivks mrisis

pectimks, semikcls, hu`kgitkriks y `ldie-k`bilgtkcls, dkgde per rlsuctkde ug i`pertkgtlalg`lge dl dlslstkbicizkmig lstrumturkc lg gu`lreses pksls dl ck zegk. Lg lc mkse dl @ldieErilgtl, hk tlgide cujkr kcc ge sce ugk rkdimkc rlmegaijurkmig dl ces kgtijues lsqul`ks

pectimes rljiegkcls, sige qul sl hk predumide kdl`s lc lstkccide dl ces prigmipkclslquicibries rljiegkcls qul hkbkg pri`kde lg dimhk zegk durkgtl cks cti`ks dmkdks. Lg etrks

pkckbrks, ck situkmig dl iglstkbicidkd lxistlgtl lg ck rljig, mkrkmtlrizkdk per ck arkj`lgtkmig

dl divlrses lstkdes gkmiegkcls (lgtrl etres Irko, ]irik e Cibik) y per ck irrupmig dl julrriccksisckìstks meg `kyerls mkpkmidkdls erjkgizktivks tkcls meè I]I] (Lstkde Iscìme),


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megstituirk ugk i`pertkgtl ùlstrk dl ces petlgmikcls lsmlgkries autures lg ces mukcls slme`biglg ces lalmtes dlc mk`bie mci`time y pesibcls alg`lges dl dlslstkbicizkmig lg rlks`s lxtlgdidks dlc jcebe.

Dl hlmhe, rlairigdeges k ck mrlmilgtl arkjicidkd dl ck situkmig igtlrgkmiegkc, puldl kair`krsl

qul ces alg`lges dl iglstkbicidkd dlsmrites prlvik`lgtl, clnes dl hkblr quldkde rldumides kcks aregtlrks dlc cck`kde tlrmlr ùgde, hkg me`lgzkde yk k k`lgkzkr, mkdk vlz `sdirlmtk`lgtl, ces lspkmies dl sljuridkd dl cks prigmipkcls petlgmiks ùgdikcls. \g lnl`pcedl lste ls ck kmtukc julrrk lg \mrkgik, ck mukc megstituyl ugk k`lgkzk dirlmtk ge sce pkrk cklstkbicidkd dl ces pksls dl ck lx rbitk sevitimk, sige qul kdl`s pkrk ces prepies lquicibriesjlepectimes lg Lurepk, mkdk vlz s tlgsiegkdes per ck mrlmilgtl disputk lgtrl Lstkdes \gidesy Rusik. Etre lnl`pce dl ce ìsè hkg side cks `ksivks eclkdks dl igìjrkgtlsmlgtrek`lrimkges k Gertlk`rimk durkgtl ces ctiès kes, ks meè tk`big cks qul hkgtlgide cujkr dlsdl pksls karimkges hkmik Lurepk. Ijukc`lgtl, puldlg `lgmiegkrsl ck slril dlalg`lges dl dlslstkbicizkmig pectimk qul hkg me`lgzkde yk k trksckdkrsl prejrlsivk`lgtlkc `bite suplr-lstrumturkc (lstktkc) lg distigtes pksls lureples, dlstkmkgde kqu lc mkse dlc

triugae dl ]yrizk lg Jrlmik y lc `ltlrime ksmlgse dl VEDL@E] lg Lspkk y lc ArlgtlGkmiegkclg Arkgmik, megstituylgde kqulcce ugk i`pertkgtl slkc dl mrisis pkrk lc preylmtelureplstk dlalgdide per lc bcequl arkgme-kcl`g y sus kcikdes.

Megsidlrkgde lgtegmls ces rlsuctkdes petlgmikc`lgtl dlslstkbicizkderls dl ug igmrl`lgte dlck tl`plrkturk jcebkc lgtrl ; y = jrkdes mlgtjrkdes, ks meè tk`big lc lalmte mktkcizkderqul tlgdrk dimhe ku`lgte sebrl ck situkmig ùgdikc, prepeglès meè pri`lr lsmlgkrie dldlskrrecce dl ck kmtukc mrisis lmecjimk ck kplrturk dl ug plriede dl dlserdlg ùgdikcmkrkmtlrizkde per lc dlbicitkìlgte, mrisis y petlgmikc dlrru`bl dl cks lstrumturks dl pedlrrljiegkcls, megtiglgtkcls e ùgdikcls. Lste meè rlsuctkde dl ck me`bigkmig dl ces lalmtesdl ck mrisis mci`timk y ck arjic situkmig lmegìmk, semikc y pectimk lxistlgtl lg k`pciksrljiegls dlc jcebe. Lg etrks pkckbrks, ges rlalriès k ck kplrturk dl ugk gulvk aksl dl mrisislstrumturkc dlc sistl`k mkpitkcistk, me`pkrkbcl k cks lxplri`lgtkdks per lstl ctiè durkgtletres plriedes dl su histerik.

]ijuilgde ces èdlces prldimtives yk dlsmrites rlsplmte kc ku`lgte dl cks tl`plrkturksùgdikcls (aijurks 8 y ;;), lstl lsmlgkrie dl mrisis lstrumturkc sl ubimkrk lgtegmls,kctlrgktivk`lgtl, durkgtl ces plriedes 26;8-26=< e 26;1-262=, lste dlplgdilgde dl si sl te`kmeè rlalrlgmik ck digìmk ger`kc e kmlclrkdk dl mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc. Lc cìtl suplrier dllstl lsmlgkrie lstkrk krmkde, k su vlz, per ug ku`lgte dl ck tl`plrkturk ugdikc lgtrl 2 y =jrkdes mlgtjrkde durkgtl ces plriedes 26=


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Vkrk lc mkse dl ces plriedes megsidlrkdes lg lc èdlce kmlclrkde dl mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc,dlstkmkès meè lcl`lgte mckvl dl gulstre kgcisis lc hlmhe dl qul, predumte dlc mkrmtlrigìglgtl dlc ku`lgte dl ck tl`plrkturk ùgdikc, kqulc sl predumirk durkgtl ug plriededl`ksikde kmetkde meè pkrk plrìtir lc dlskrrecce dl rlspulstks kdkptktivks (laimkmls) kgtllc ìsè, lste lsplmikc`lgtl pkrk lc plriede 26;1-262=. Dl lstk aer`k, tkgte ck igtlgsidkd

meè lc ritè qul te`krk lc mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc durkgtl lstes plriedes megstituirkg ugkk`lgkzk dirlmtk pkrk ck lstkbicidkd dl ck igdustrik kci`lgtkrik ùgdikc y, per ce tkgte, pkrk lcsistl`k mkpitkcistk dl megnugte. Lste tkc meè yk igdimkès kc `lgmiegkr lc mkse dl ceslstkccides semikcls dlskrrecckdes lg @ldie Erilgtl y arimk lg kes rlmilgtls. Dlbl te`krsl lgmulgtk kqu kdl`s ck tetkc igmkpkmidkd qul hkg dlèstrkde hkstk kherk cks lcitls dirijlgtlsùgdikcls pkrk cidikr meg ces prebcl`ks rlckmiegkdes meg lc mk`bie mci`time, ks meètk`big ces yk `lgmiegkdes lalmtes dlslstkbicizkderls dl ces kmtukcls megacimtesigtlrgkmiegkcls. Tede ce kgtlrier kcmkgzkrk ug givlc dl mrisis lstrumturkc kbilrtk durkgtl lc

plriede 262=-2628, lste k ugk lsmkck pesibcl`lgtl umhe `kyer si sl megsidlrk ck suplrkmigdl ck yk rlalridk bkrrlrk mktkstraimk dl ces 2 jrkdes y lc lstkccide dl petlgmikcls megacimtessemikcls y jlepectimes dl di`lgsiegls ge vistks dlsdl `ldikdes dlc sijce pkskde.

Lg trìge dl sìcls histrimes, lc dlskrrecce dl lstk mrisis lstrumturkc pedrk tlglr ks ugkslril dl i`pertkgtls kgkcejks histrimks meg ck situkmig igtlrgkmiegkc dl ck pri`lrk ìtkd dlcsijce XX, mkrkmtlrizkdk ijukc`lgtl per lc dlskrrecce dl ugk mrisis jlglrkcizkdk dl ckslstrumturks dl pedlr rljiegkcls y ùgdikcls. Dl lstl ède, te`kgde lg mulgtk cksmkrkmtlrstimks dl ck situkmig histrimk megtl`perglk y ces lalmtes dl ug petlgmikc ku`lgte(igìglgtl) dl ck tl`plrkturk jcebkc lgtrl ; y 2 jrkdes, mrllès qul slrk mehlrlgtl me`pkrkrlc pkplc qul pedrk tlglr lc mk`bie mci`time durkgtl lc plriede 26;1-262= meg lc rec qulmu`pci lg su e`lgte ck mrisis lmegìmk dl ;929. Kherk bilg, dl predumirsl ug igmrl`lgtedl cks tl`plrkturks ugdikcls qul suplrl ces 2 jrkdes mlgtjrkdes (aksl 262=-2628), epigkèsqul ces lalmtes dlc mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc slrkg lg lstl mkse me`pkrkbcls k kqulcces qul tuvelc dlskrrecce dl des dl ces lvlgtes `s dlstrumtives dl ck histerik èdlrgk> lc lstkccide dl cksJulrrks @ugdikcls.

]i te`kès kherk ces plriedes megsidlrkdes lg ck digìmk ger`kc dl mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc(26;8-26=< y 26=


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lstudie mci`timks. Lste ctiè kc ède dl ug `krmkder dl igtlgsidkd (jlglrkc) meg lc mukcigdimkr lc pugte k pkrtir dlc mukc lc mk`bie mci`time dlvilgl lg ug lvlgte mktkstraime(irrlvlrsibcl) pkrk cks semildkdls hu`kgks y ces lmesistl`ks. Dlsdl kqu, slrk per ce tkgtecjime supeglr qul lstl cìtl pedrk vkrikr, quizs megsidlrkbcl`lgtl, si te`kès lg mulgtkcks mkrkmtlrstimks megmrltks dl ugk semildkd e lmesistl`k pkrtimuckr. Lg etrks pkckbrks,

cck`kès ck ktlgmig rlsplmte k ck pesibcl lxistlgmik dl u`brkcls mktkstraimesdialrlgmikdespkrk mkdk sistl`k semikc, pudilgde lg kcjugks emksiegls slr `kyerls e `lgerls dlplgdilgdedl cks aertkclzks e dlbicidkdls lsplmaimks (pkrtimuckrls) dl lstl ctiè.

b- Lsmlgkrie 2> Meckpse mivicizkterie. Lgtrl ck megquistk dl k`rimk, ck plstl gljrk y ck mkdkdl Re`k

Dlaigiès meè meckpse mivicizkterie lc dlskrrecce dl ugk arkmturk augdk`lgtkc dl ckslstrumturks dl pedlr y ck bksl predumtivk ùgdikc, kalmtkgde lstk cti`k ksplmtes mrtimes dlces `lmkgisès dl rlpredummig semikc lg tedks sus lsalrks> rlckmiegls lmegìmks, pectimksy mucturkcls. Ls i`pertkgtl sig l`bkrje qul dialrlgmilès kqu ck digìmk dl meckpse meg ck

dl mk`bie rlvecumiegkrie, lste yk qul k`bes alg`lges pkrlmilrkg pesllr ugk augmighistrimk siìckr> lc dlrru`bl dl ug sistl`k semikc prlvie. Lg lc mkse dlc mk`bierlvecumiegkrie, kqulc igvecumrkrk ug premlse dl dlstrummig-rlmegaijurkmig dl ug kmlrvetlmge-lmegìme y semikc prlvie, silgde kqulc rlerjkgizkde (y suplrkde) lg lc `krme dl ckgulvk semildkd lg jlstkmig. Lste tkc meè emurri, per lnl`pce, lg lc mkse dl ces alg`lgeshistrimes qul mkrkmtlrizkreg ck trkgsimig lgtrl lc sistl`k tkrde-aludkc y ck semildkd mkpitkcistkkmtukc. Ver lc megtrkrie, ugk digìmk dl meckpse sl prlslgtkrk kc ède dl ug alg`lge dldlstrummig-disjrljkmig (e igmcuse dlskpkrimig) dlc kmlrve mivicizkterie dl ug sistl`k semikclg aksl dl dlrru`bl. Dl lstl ède, mk`bie rlvecumiegkrie y meckpse mivicizkterie dlblglgtlgdlrsl kc ede dl kgtigeìks histrimks. Lste quilrl dlmir qul, kug mukgde k`bes premlsessl bkslg lg ck gljkmig-dlstrummig dl ug sistl`k semikc prlvie, kqulcces sl dialrlgmikrkg lglc hlmhe dl qul lc mk`bie rlvecumiegkrie pesllrk ug megtlgide histrimk`lgtl prejrlsive,ìlgtrks qul ug alg`lge dl meckpse prlslgtkrk, per lc megtrkrie, ug mkrmtlr tetkc`lgtlrlkmmiegkrie.

Megsidlrkgde lstks dlaigimiegls, lgtlgdlès kherkper meckpse dlc mkpitkcisè ug e`lgtepkrtimuckr (igimikc) dlc premlse dl meckpse mivicizkterie yk dlaigide. Lstl sl mkrkmtlrizkrk ksper lc dlrru`bl dlc sistl`k lmegìme, semikc, pectime y mucturkc dlc mkpitkcisèmegtl`pergle, kugqul sig qul lste i`pciqul tedkvk, glmlskrik`lgtl, ug quilbrl dlaigitivegi meg lc kmlrve mivicizkterie mkpitkcistk (per lnl`pce su sistl`k tlmgecjime), gi meg ck hlrlgmikmucturkc dl cks semildkdls pkskdks qul lc prepie mkpitkcisè hk cejrkde megdlgskr lg s

(lsmriturk, aiceseak, vidk urbkgk, tmgimks kjrmecks, ltm.).Rlairigdeges kherk k cks pesibcls mkusks dlc meckpse dl ug sistl`k semikc me`pclne, trklèskqu k meckmig kcjugks dl cks rlaclxiegls dlc yk mitkde lstudie pktremigkde pkrmikc`lgtl perck GK]K (lsplmaimk`lgtl per lc Jeddkrd ]pkml Acijht Mlgtlr) lg terge k ces akmterls dl ckmkdk dl gu`lresks mivicizkmiegls lg lc pkskde? per lnl`pce ces I`plrie Re`kge y Juptk, ckdigkstk Hkg y divlrsks semildkdls `lsepetìmks. Dl kmulrde k lstl lstudie, sl lstkbclmlglgtrl kcjuges dl ces akmterls dl meckpse `s rlmurrlgtls dl dimhks mivicizkmiegls kcjuges tkclsmeè ces sijuilgtls> mrlmiìlgte pebckmiegkc, mci`k, kjuk, kjrimucturk y lglrjk, megstituylgdeck me`bigkmig lgtrl ugk lstrktiaimkmig semikc lxtrl`k y ugk bksl dl rlmurses mkdk vlz `slstrlmhk uge dl ces lsmlgkries `s arlmulgtls dl ug alg`lge dl meckpse. Etrk dl cks

mkrkmtlrstimks meùgls kc dlrru`bl dl lstks mivicizkmiegls hkbrk side, tkc meè yk`lgmiegkès, ck lxistlgmik dl ugk lcitl qul tilgdl kc sebrl-megsuè y qul pesll megdimiegls


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dl vidk mkdk vlz s kclnkdks k cks dlc rlste dl ck pebckmig, ks meè tk`big lc dlskrrecce dldistigtes alg`lges dl iglstkbicidkd semikc y pectimk. Lste ctiè meè predumte dlc `kyerl`pebrlmiìlgte (igdumide) dl ck pebckmig y dl ck kmtitud megslrvkderk dl cks mckslsdirijlgtls.

Ge dlblès lsaerzkrges, per ce tkgte, pkrk lgmegtrkr dl ig`ldikte cks kgkcejks lxistlgtlslgtrl cks mkusks qul predunlreg ck mkdk dl divlrsks mivicizkmiegls lg lc pkskde y ck situkmigkmtukc dlc sistl`k mkpitkcistk, bkskde lg lc dlskrrecce dl givlcls lxtrlès dl dlsijukcdkd semikc,ug pktrg predumtive mkdk vlz `s igsestlgibcl y ugk mcksl dirijlgtl qul sl l`plk lg lvitkrcks `s `gi`ks rlaer`ks pkrk cidikr, slrik`lgtl, meg lstes prebcl`ks. \gk ùlstrk dl lsteseg ces rlsuctkdes dl ug igaer`l dl ck rlmegemidk erjkgizkmig Exak` qul kair`k qul lc ke26;1 lc ;% dl ck pebckmig tlgdr lg su pedlr ugk riqulzk me`pkrkbcl, gkdk `lges, qul kkqulcck qul pesll lc 99% dl ck hu`kgidkd. Ijukc`lgtl, etre lnl`pce dl ce ìsè ce megstituylug rlmilgtl lstudie dl ck erjkgizkmig Zercd Zidl Augd aer Gkturl (ZZA) qul igdimk qul lc26=6 sl glmlsitkrg gkdk `lges qul des pckgltks Tilrrk pkrk sktisakmlr ces kmtukcls pktreglsdl megsuè ugdikc, k`pcigdesl lstk miark k trls pckgltks lc 26 ;-mrisis tlrìgkc y dlrru`bl dlcmkpitkcisè? 2-meckpse mivicizkterie. Meg aigls lsqul`times, lstkbclmlrlès meè cglk dlslpkrkmig lgtrl uge y etre premlse ck yk slkckdk bkrrlrk dl ces =.< jrkdes mlgtjrkdes dlku`lgte dl ck tl`plrkturk jcebkc, idlgtiaimgdeck meè lc cìtl (e u`brkc dl meckpse) dl ckmkpkmidkd dl rlpredummig dl ck mivicizkmig kmtukc. K su vlz, lgtlgdlrlès tede igmrl`lgtelgtrl 4 y < jrkdes mlgtjrkdes meè ugk aksl dl trkgsimig lgtrl ug premlse dl meckpsemivicizkterie y ug alg`lge dl lxtigmig `ksivk ig`ldiktk (igimikc) dl ck vidk lg lc pckgltk.

Te`kès kqu lg mulgtk, ijukc`lgtl, ck pesibicidkd dl trkylmteriks histrimks kctlrgktivks kcgivlc dl mkdk uge dl ces premlses megsidlrkdes, silgde sig l`bkrje cks prebkbicidkdls dl


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kqulccks `s rldumidks dlbide k ck `kyer igtlgsidkd y vlcemidkd qul mkrkmtlrizkrk kc mk`biemci`time lg lc trkgsmurse dl lstl lsmlgkrie, lste pkrtilgde igmcuse dl ces èdlces `smegslrvkderls.

]ijuilgde ces èdlces prldimtives vistes prlvik`lgtl, ug lsmlgkrie dl meckpse mivicizkterie

dkrk igimie ks kc ccljkrsl k ces = jrkdes mlgtjrkdes dl ku`lgte dl ck tl`plrkturk ùgdikc.Te`kgde meè rlalrlgmik lc èdlce ger`kc dl mk`bie mci`time, lstk tl`plrkturk slrkrlbkskdk lg 2641, kcmkgzgdesl pestlrier`lgtl ces 4 y < jrkdes dl ku`lgte durkgtl ces kes26 26=6 y 26== rlsplmtivk`lgtl. Dlstkmk lg ce kgtlrier lc hlmhe dl qul ck bkrrlrk dl ces=.< jrkdes dl ku`lgte ls rlbkskdk, sljg ck digìmk kmlclrkdk, k aigls dl ces kes 26s,ìlgtrks qul lg lc èdlce ger`kc dimhe igmrl`lgte sl preduml hkmik `ldikdes dl sijce. Ceìsè emurrl lg lc mkse dl ck bkrrlrk dl ces < jrkdes, ck mukc ls kcmkgzkdk dl kmulrde k ckdigìmk kmlclrkdk lg lc ke 26==, ìlgtrks qul lg lc èdlce ger`kc kqulcck ls sebrlpkskdkrlmig lg 2616.

Vlriede ger`kc Vlriede kmlclrkde Ku`lgte jrkdes ]ìc histrime2628-26=6 + = M / + 4 M Megquistk dl K`rimk

Meckpse Rkpkgui (a)2641-26


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lc lsmlgkrie dl meckpse, puldlg megnlturkrsl divlrsks trkylmteriks kctlrgktivks rlsplmte kcìsè, kqulcce tlgilgde lg `lgtl ces èdlces mci`times yk rlalrides; lc ède dl

ug til`pe dl rlspulstk `giè kgtl kqulc. Aigkc`lgtl, dlblrkès dkr per slgtkdk ck mkpkmidkd (pesibcl`lgtldudesk) qul tlgjkg cks mcksls deìgkgtls pkrk dlskrrecckr, lg tkg sce kcjuges kes, ces `lmkgisès glmlskries(tlmgecjimes, semikcls, pectimes y mucturkcls) qul cl plrìtkg kdìgistrkr cks divlrsks mrisis k cks qul pedrkgvlrsl lxpulstks, kqulcce dl mu`pcirsl cks lsti`kmiegls dl ces èdlces prldimtives lg terge kc ku`lgte dl ckstl`plrkturks jcebkcls. Vlgskès ks qul ug lsmlgkrie dl lstl tipe (mrisis lstrumturkc megtlgidk) slrk kctk`lgtli`prebkbcl dl merreberksl cks preylmmiegls kmtukcls dlc mkclgtkìlgte jcebkc, cks mukcls dkg mksi per slgtkde ugku`lgte dl ck tl`plrkturk ugdikc bkstkgtl kyer k ces = jrkdes mlgtjrkdes pkrk ck sljugdk itkd dl lstl sijce.Etre akmter qul ktlgtkrk lg megtrk dl ug lsmlgkrie dl lstl tipe slrkg cks kmtukcls preylmmiegls dl kjetkìlgteigìglgtl dlc pktrg predumtive bkskde lg ck lxtrkmmig dl me`bustibcls asicls (lsplmikc`lgtl pltrcle), ksmeè tk`big ck tlgdlgmik k ug kjetkìlgte jlglrkcizkde dl rlmurses predumte dl ck dljrkdkmig dl ceslmesistl`ks.; ck lmege`k, cks rlckmiegls semikcls y ces sistl`ksdl erjkgizkmig pectimk. Lste kc ède dl ug premlse debcl dl disecumig vieclgtk dl ckslstrumturks megsecidkgtls dl ck mivicizkmig megtl`perglk (per lnl`pce lc lstkde gkmig) yug alg`lge igvlrse dl rlerjkgizkmig (è`lgtglk) dl kqulccks, lste ctiè sebrl tededlplgdilgde dl ces givlcls dl jrkdukcidkd qul kdquilrk lc premlse lg su megnugte. \g lnl`pcedl lstes pesibcls alg`lges dl rlerjkgizkmiglstrumturkc qul kme`pklg k ug premlse dlmeckpse pedrk rkdimkr, lsplmikc`lgtl durkgtl cks pri`lrks aksls dl kqulc, lg lc i`pucse dl

gulves mimces predumtives bkskdes lg ck prlslrvkmig dl mkdlgks lmegìme-tlmgecjimksprlviks (lste lsplmikc`lgtl k givlc cemkc e rljiegkc). K pkrtir dl kqu, slrk tk`big lsplrkbclck `kgtlgmig y/e rlerjkgizkmig dl milrtks aer`kmiegls lstktkcls qul hkykg pedide rlsistir lcl`bktl igimikc dlc dlrru`bl, e bilg ck mrlkmig dl gulves kjrljkdes semie-pectimes dllxtlgsig y mkrmtlr vkrikbcl lg divlrsks rlks dlc jcebe, sebrl tede kqulcces qul hkykgmegslrvkde ugk bksl gi`k dl rlmurses gkturkcls.

Meè puldl supeglrsl, ugk dl cks mkrkmtlrstimks mlgtrkcls qul tlgdrk lstl premlse (pkrkclce)dl disecumig-rlerjkgizkmig dl ces sistl`ks semikcls slrk, lgtrl etrks, ck me`pltlgmik lxtrl`k

per rlmurses. Lste `ldikgtl lc i`pucse dl julrrks e igvksiegls dl lxtlgsig vkrikbcl (dligtlgsidkd pesibcl`lgtl dlmrlmilgtl lg tkgte lc meckpse sl preaugdiml) lgtrl aer`kmieglslstktkcls, slì-lstktkcls e jrupes dl pedlr dl divlrsk gdecl, per lnl`pce kqulcces qul

pudilrkg aer`krsl kc mkcer dl ck dlsme`pesimig dl cks aulrzks kr`kdks dl ces kmtukcls lstkdesgkmiegkcls. Akmter mckvl lg lstks disputks pedrkg slr ces tlrriteries qul, predumte dlc mk`biemci`time, pkslg k megvlrtirsl lg zegks tl`pckdks meg rlmurses dl kjuk suaimilgtl pkrk lcdlskrrecce dl ugk kjrimucturk igtlgsivk y lc kbkstlmiìlgte dl pebckmiegls hu`kgks, lste

prigmipkc`lgtl lgtrl ces 2 y 4 jrkdes mlgtjrkdes dl ku`lgte dl ck tl`plrkturk jcebkc. Lnl`pcedl dimhks rlks pedrkg slr lg lc auture lc gertl dl Mkgkd u etrks zegks mirmu`peckrls.

Kherk bilg, tkc meè lg lc mkse dlc lsmlgkrie dl mrisis lstrumturkc dismutide kgtlrier`lgtl, cksmkrkmtlrstimks pkrtimuckrls qul kdquilrk lc premlse dl meckpse dlplgdlrg, prigmipkc`lgtl, dl

ck igtlgsidkd y vlcemidkd qul te`l lc mk`bie mci`time, dltlrìgkgde lste ksiìsè ckspesibicidkdls dl rlspulstk qul puldkg tlglr ces sistl`ks semikcls kgtl kqulc. Rlairigdeges kck pri`lrk aksl dlaigidk pkrk lstl lsmlgkrie> ls dlmir ck mrisis tlrìgkc y dlrru`bl dlc sistl`kmkpitkcistk, sujlriès qul kqulcck sl merrlspegdlrk meg ug ku`lgte dl ck tl`plrkturk jcebkclgtrl = y =.< jrkdes mlgtjrkdes, lste kmlptkgde uge dl ces cìtls lstkbclmides per cks kjlgmiksmci`timks pkrk `krmkr lc pugte dl akcck dl ck mkpkmidkd dl rlpredummig dl ck semildkdkmtukc. Tkc meè sujilrlg ces èdlces mci`times rlviskdes, lstk aksl sl mkrkmtlrizkrk per

prlslgtkr ug dlskrrecce vlrtijigese, kqulcce sebrl tede si megsidlrkès lc hlmhe dl qul ckbkrrlrk dl ces =.< jrkdes mlgtjrkdes slrk sebrlpkskdk lg ug plriede ge `kyer k muktre kesdl kmulrde ck digìmk ger`kc (`ldikdes dlc sijce XX), e bilg lg sce uge e des kes sljgck digìmk kmlclrkdk (aigls dl ck dmkdk dl 2626). Dlsdl kqu, puldk kair`krsl qul dl ge

hkblrsl predumide ugk rlspulstk k til`pe per pkrtl dlc sistl`k mkpitkcistk durkgtl ck mrisislstrumturkc prlvik, kqulc si`pcl`lgtl ge megtkrk meg mksi gigjugk mhkgml dl sebrlvivlgmik kc


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kbrirsl ug plriede dl meckpse. Dimhe dl etrk kglrk, lc jecpl dlc mk`bie ldiek`bilgtkc sebrlck semildkd mkpitkcistk, yk dlbicitkdk kgtlrier`lgtl per lc dlskrrecce ck mrisis, slrkslgmicck`lgtl dl`ksikde vieclgte meè pkrk plrìtircl ugk pesibcl rlspulstk kgtl kqulc. Megtede, slrk lsplrkbcl (hipettimk`lgtl) qul lc sistl`k mkpitkcistk pudilrk megtkr meg ugk `kyermkpkmidkd dl rlspulstk dl hkblrsl predumide kgtls, durkgtl ces kes prlvies kc dlrru`bl, lc

dlskrrecce dl tlmgecejks predumtivks y kdlckgtes milgtaimes qul cl plrìtkg lgarlgtkr dl lner`kglrk lc mk`bie mci`time. Y meè ls cjime supeglr, lstes dlskrrecces slrkg s lsplrkbclslg lc mkse dlc èdlce ger`kc, lc mukc diailrl ck kplrturk dlc lsmlgkrie dl meckpse hkstk`ldikdes dlc sijce XXI, eterjkgde ks ug `kyer rkgje dl til`pe kgtl lc ìsè.

\gk vlz rlbkskdk ck bkrrlrk dl ces =.< jrkdes, tlgdrk cujkr kherk ck kplrturk dlc sljugdeè`lgte prepulste pkrk lstl lsmlgkrie, mkrkmtlrizkde meè yk diniès per lc dlskrrecce dl ugalg`lge dl meckpse mivicizkterie jlglrkcizkde lg lc mukc sl predumirk ck dljrkdkmig y

petlgmikc dlrru`bl dl ces pickrls bsimes dl ck semildkd megtl`perglk. Ls dlmir, kmerdl megce `lgmiegkde kgtlrier`lgtl, ug premlse dl disjrljkmig-disecumig (e trkgsaer`kmigrkdimkc) dl tede kqulcce qul hk megstituide ces augdk`lgtes dlc ùgde èdlrge. Kbilrte lstl

lsmlgkrie, kugqul dl tedks aer`ks k ug ritè milrtk`lgtl vlrtijigese, ces èdlces mci`timesprlslgtkrkg ugk `kyer divlrjlgmik lgtrl s. Dl hlmhe, ìlgtrks ck tl`plrkturk jcebkclxplri`lgtk, dl kmulrde kc edlce ger`kc, ug gulve ku`lgte lgtrl =.< k < jrkdes mlgtjrkdeslg ug plriede qul kbkrmk kprexi`kdk`lgtl ugk dmkdk (26 ck lxtigmig. ]lrk prlmisk`lgtl lgtrl ces 4 y lc dlrru`bl dl ck pri`lrk mivicizkmig pclgk`lgtlùgdikc dl ck histerik.

m- Lsmlgkrie => Lxtigmig `ksivk. Ck k`lgkzk dlc kpemkcipsis prìme

Lgskye lg prlpkrkmig

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