Credicorp capital. 2013 1 t aceros arequipa - credicorp capital (1)
2
Click here to load reader
Transcript of Credicorp capital. 2013 1 t aceros arequipa - credicorp capital (1)
1
1T13 Resultados: Aceros Arequipa Significativa reducción de costos
Mayo 6, 2013
Maria Teresa Sarmiento (+51 1) 416 3333 – Ext. 33055
Las ventas de Aceros Arequipa fueron menores a nuestros estimados a pesar del aumento en los precios, debido al menor volumen vendido. El margen EBITDA fue mayor a nuestros estimados (8.3% vs. 6.5%) explicado por una reducción en los costos administrativos y de ventas. Estado de Resultados Las ventas llegaron hasta S/. 550.3m (+1.1% YoY y -2.7% QoQ) y la utilidad bruta se redujo desde S/. 94.4m en 1T12 hasta S/: 82.7m en 1T13; pero, comparado con 4T12, el resultado obtenido fue mayor en +34.8%. Esta situación se explica principalmente por el aumento de los precios del acero desde finales del 2012. El margen bruto creció de 10.8% en 4T12 hasta 15.0% en 1T13 debido al aumento de los precios domésticos del acero lo que afectó positivamente el margen bruto a partir del 2013. El EBITDA se redujo hasta S/. 45.6m (-24.5% YoY) en 1T13 siendo mayor a nuestro estimado (S/. 42.4m) debido a la reducción en los gastos de administrativos y de ventas. Como consecuencia el margen EBITDA fue 8.3% en 1T13 (vs. 6.5% estimado) representando un aumento comparado con los márgenes observados en 3T12 y 4T12. La utilidad neta llegó hasta S/. 13.0m en 1T13 (-66.4% YoY) y fue mayor a la observada en 4T12 (S/. 2.7m), la cual fue la menor utilidad obtenida en los últimos tres años. Balance General La deuda financiera de corto plazo se redujo hasta S/. 628.9m (-10.6 QoQ) debido a su remplazo por deuda de mediano plazo. En ese sentido, la deuda de largo plazo de la compañía aumentó hasta S/. 453.2m en 1T13 y el ratio deuda financiera/patrimonio aumentó desde 0.72x en 4T12 hasta 0.79x en 1T13; y el ratio deuda financiera/EBITDA se mantuvo en sus niveles máximos (8.9x en 1T13). Es importante resaltar que Aceros Arequipa continua con su programa de reperfilamiento de deuda y se espera que culmine en 2T13. Valorización Nuestra recomendación es COMPRAR Aceros Arequipa (AA) con un valor fundamental de S/. 0.95 (luego de la entrega de dividendos), lo que implica un potencial de apreciación de 55.7% (vs. S/. 0.61 al 3 de mayo). De acuerdo con la valorización por múltiplos, AA se negocia a niveles más altos de P/U respecto a sus comparables pero el EV/EBITDA se mantiene en línea con sus comparables.
Información de la acción
Estimados
Comparables
Resultados 1T13
Información de la acción BBG Ticker: CORAREI1 PE
Recomendación COMPRAR
2013YE T.P. (PEN) 0.95
Precio actual(PEN) 0.61
Upside (%) 55.7%
2013E Div. Yield (%) 0.0%
Capitalización Bursátil (USDm) 372.2
Max / Min U12M (PEN) 1.81 / 0.55
Volumen promedio (USDk) 108.3
PENm 1T13A 1T13E A/E 1T12 Y/Y
Ingresos 550.3 649.2 -15.2% 544.6 1.1%
EBITDA 45.6 42.4 7.4% 60.3 -24.5%
Utilidad neta 13.0 10.1 28.8% 38.7 -66.4%
UPA (PEN) 0.01 0.01 28.8% 0.03 -66.4%
Márgenes
Margen EBITDA 8.3% 6.5% 26.7% 11.1% -25.3%
Margen Neto 2.4% 1.6% 51.9% 7.1% -66.7%
PENm 2011 2012 LTM 2013P 2014P
Ingresos 2,064.8 2,165.9 2,171.6 2,648.6 3,262.9
Utilidad operativa 256.4 88.4 73.0 102.3 173.1
EBITDA 332.6 136.5 121.7 171.8 250.2
Utilidad neta 194.0 59.2 33.5 42.1 90.5
UPA (PEN) 0.17 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.08
Márgenes
Margen operativo 12.4% 4.1% 3.4% 3.9% 5.3%
Margne EBITDA 16.1% 6.3% 5.6% 6.5% 7.7%
Margen neto 9.4% 2.7% 1.5% 1.6% 2.8%
Multiplos
EV/EBITDA 5.2x 13.6x 13.4x 5.8x 4.0x
P/E 7.2x 17.6x 19.0x 23.7x 11.0x
SiderPerú
Gerdau
Usiminas
CAP
Grupo Simec
Aceros Arequipa
Promotora y Operadora de Infraestructura
Ternium
0x
2x
4x
6x
8x
10x
12x
14x
16x
0x 4x 8x 12x 16x 20x 24x 28x
EV
/EB
ITD
A 2
013P
P/E 2013P
2
1T13 Resultados: Aceros Arequipa Significativa reducción de costos
Mayo 6, 2013
Maria Teresa Sarmiento (+51 1) 416 3333 – Ext. 33055
CHILE PERÚ Hernán Arellano Marilyn Macdonald
Head of Equities Equity Sales International
Francisca Manu Alejandro Rabanal [email protected] [email protected]
Head of Equity Research - Chile Head of Equity Research - Perú # (562) 2446 1706 # (4477) 7151 5855
fmanu [email protected]
# (562) 2446 1798 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 36070 Roberto Salas Cristián Castillo
Equity Sales International Sales Trader International
Christopher DiSalvatore María Teresa Sarmiento [email protected] [email protected]
Senior Analyst: Retail & Financials Senior Analyst: Infrastructure # (562) 2446 1732 # (786) 999 1633
[email protected] [email protected]
# (562) 2446 1724 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 33055 CHILE PERÚ
Felipe Etchegaray Fernando Pereda Rene Ossa Jorge Monsante
Senior Analyst: Utilities Senior Analyst: Cement & Utilities Equity Sales International General Manager Credibolsa
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
# (562) 2446 1768 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 37856 # (562) 2651 9324 # (511) 313 2918
Ignacio Spencer Héctor Collantes Christian Munchmeyer Gonzalo Morales
Senior Analyst: Food & Beverages, Others Senior Analyst: Mining Sales & Trading International Head of Sales & Trading
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
# (562) 2450 1688 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 33052 # (562) 2450 1613 # (511) 313 2918 Ext 32901
Javier Günther Omar Avellaneda COLOMBIA Jorge Juan Aita
Analyst: Construction & Health Services Senior Analyst: Retail & Others Sales & Trading
[email protected] [email protected] Sergio Ortíz [email protected]
# (562) 2450 1695 # (511) 205 9190 Ext 36065 Head of Equities Sales - Colombia # (511) 313 2918 Ext 32901
José Manuel Edwards COLOMBIA # (571) 339 4400 Ext 273 Úrsula Mitterhofer
Analyst: Natural Resources Sales & Trading
[email protected] Daniel Velandia Juan Antonio Jiménez [email protected]
# (562) 2446 1761 Head of Research & Chief Economist Head of Equity Sales International # (511) 313 2918 Ext 32922
[email protected] [email protected]
Lourdes Alamos # (571) 339 4400 Ext 505 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 466
Assistant to Research
[email protected] Valeria Marconi Santiago Castro
# (562) 2450 1609 Senior Analyst: Oil & Gas Sales & Trading International
[email protected] [email protected]
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 594 # (571) 339 4400 Ext 369
Jaime Pedroza
Senior Analyst: Utilities
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 9139
Juan Camilo Domínguez
Senior Analyst: Banks
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 572
Juliana Valencia
Analyst: GEA & BVC
# (571) 339 4400 Ext 365
EQUITY RESEARCH TEAM EQUITY SALES & TRADING
Disclaimer This report has been prepared by Inversiones IMT S.A. and/or Correval S.A. Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or BCP Capital S.A.A. and/or their subsidiaries for informative purposes only. This report is based on publicly available information that it should be considered to come from reliable sources. However we do not guarantee it as accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. Unless otherwise stated, this report does not include privileged information that could violate either copyrights or market regulations. This material belongs to Inversiones IMT S.A. and/or Correval S.A. Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or BCP Capital S.A.A. and/or their subsidiaries and cannot be copied, distributed or redistributed in any form by any means or without the prior written consent of Inversiones IMT S.A. and/or Correval S.A. Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or BCP Capital S.A.A. and/or their subsidiaries. The purpose of this report is not to predict the future, nor guarantee specific financial results. It is also important to consider that the information contained in this research may be oriented to a specific segment of clients or investors, with a certain risk profile that may not be yours. Unless otherwise stated, the report does not contain investment recommendations or other suggestions that can be understood to be given under the capital market intermediaries’ special duty to clients classified as investors. When recommendations are made, the report will specify a risk profile. Inversiones IMT S.A. and/or Correval S.A. Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or BCP Capital S.A.A. and/or their subsidiaries can seek and/or conduct business with companies that are mentioned in the report, and they can also execute buying and selling transactions of shares that are mentioned. It is important to state that fluctuations in Exchange rates can have adverse effects on investment value. Inversiones IMT S.A. and/or Correval S.A. Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or BCP Capital S.A.A. and/or their subsidiaries recommend their clients to seek assistance from professionals accredited by the appropriate regulatory agency. It is up to the client to determine if the information in this report is sufficient to make an investment decision or any other market operation. Under no circumstances can the information published here be considered as provided legal, accounting or taxation concept. When it is required, Inversiones IMT S.A. and/or Correval S.A. Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or BCP Capital S.A.A. and/or their subsidiaries recommend their clients to seek advice from accredited professionals. Inversiones IMT S.A. and/or Correval S.A. Sociedad Comisionista de Bolsa and/or BCP Capital S.A.A. do not assume any responsibility, obligation nor any loss related to the information contained in this report,
neither do these same firms assume civil responsibility for any legal recourse caused by action or omission derived from this document.
