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GIFT lectures Summary

Contents How can we defend ourselves from the hazards of nature in the modern society? ....................................................... 3

Natural hazards: definition ....................................................................................................................................... 3

Are they unavoidable? .............................................................................................................................................. 4

Is the XXIst century society more vulnerable? .......................................................................................................... 4

What are the best strategies to mitigate the effects of natural hazards on lifelines? ............................................. 6

What is the possible contribution of scientists ......................................................................................................... 7

Understanding the earthquake generation process: key results and present grand challenges ..................................... 8

The earthquake (EQ) generation process ................................................................................................................. 8

Prevention and forecasting ....................................................................................................................................... 9

Impact on society ...................................................................................................................................................... 9

Recent EQ: .............................................................................................................................................................. 10

Are we ready to communicate risks to society? ..................................................................................................... 10

Convergent margins and mega-earthquakes .................................................................................................................. 11

Are EQ rare? ............................................................................................................................................................ 11

Are mega EQ (> 7.5 ) rare events? .......................................................................................................................... 12

Why are there differences between Chile and Mariana? ....................................................................................... 13

Which parameter is governing the subduction interplate seismicity? ................................................................... 14

Risk assessment of Vesuvius volcano ............................................................................................................................. 15

Eruptive history: 30.000 years ago -> 1944 ............................................................................................................ 15

The reference eruption for the Vesuvius emergency plan ..................................................................................... 15

Main hazards related to a sub-plinian eruption ..................................................................................................... 15

Two prevention actions can be envisaged to mitigate the roof collapse risk: ....................................................... 17

The Vesuvius emergency plan................................................................................................................................. 17

A recently discovered dramatic problem: ............................................................................................................... 17

Tsunami hazard assessment: what did we learn since 2004 and 2011? ........................................................................ 18

General: ................................................................................................................................................................... 18

How can we observe tsunamis?.............................................................................................................................. 19

Why modeling tsunamis? ........................................................................................................................................ 20

Risk prevention plan ............................................................................................................................................... 21

Triggered landslide events: statistics, implications and road network interactions ...................................................... 22

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Landslide (Mass wasting) ................................................................................................................................................ 22

Introduction, landslides .......................................................................................................................................... 22

Triggered landslide events ...................................................................................................................................... 22

Type of mass wasting processes ............................................................................................................................. 22

Factors influencing slope stability ........................................................................................................................... 24

Triggered landslide events ...................................................................................................................................... 25

Triggered events and road network (lot of damages) ............................................................................................ 26

Hazard assessment of mass wasting ....................................................................................................................... 26

Prevention and mitigation of mass wasting............................................................................................................ 27

Further web resources ............................................................................................................................................ 27

ESA: Earth Observation program and its applications to Natural hazards ..................................................................... 29

Introduction to ESA and EO programmes ............................................................................................................... 29

ENVISAT mission: ten years..................................................................................................................................... 29

Detection of natural events and human activity: ................................................................................................... 29

For school (with all videos) ..................................................................................................................................... 30

Submarine geohazards .................................................................................................................................................... 31

Definitions: .............................................................................................................................................................. 31

The world is blue …. Importance of submarine geohazards (concentrate in continental margin): ....................... 31

Approaches to the study of submarine landslides .................................................................................................. 32

The Mediterranean Sea Vulnerability ..................................................................................................................... 32

Methane emissions ................................................................................................................................................. 33

Météorite impact in the oceans .............................................................................................................................. 33

Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................... 33

Space weather: storms from the sun .............................................................................................................................. 34

3 examples of space weather ................................................................................................................................. 34

Educational examples: ............................................................................................................................................ 34

Conclusion: .............................................................................................................................................................. 35

Increase of extreme events in a warming world ............................................................................................................ 36

History ..................................................................................................................................................................... 36

Climate effect CO2 (sensitivity) ............................................................................................................................... 36

Weather extremes .................................................................................................................................................. 39

Presentations are available on the website:

http://www.egu.eu/outreach/gift/workshops/presentations/14/ga-2013-gift-workshop-natural-hazards/

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How can we defend ourselves from the hazards of nature in the modern society? Stefano Tinti, University of Bologna, Italy

Natural hazards: definition

"Those elements of the physical environment, harmful to man and caused by force extraneous to him"

(Burton et al 1978).

It refers to all atmospheric, hydrology, geology, wildfire phenomenon that, because of their location,

severity and frequency have the potential to affect human, their structure and their activities.

“Natural” means that it is not a manmade phenomenon as war and pollution.

Natural hazards involve 2 elements: nature and society.

It occurs in a populated area and causes a natural disaster.

Classification of different phenomena:

Atmosphere: storms, hailstorms, windstorms, hurricanes, lightning, tornadoes…

Earth: - earthquakes, ground fissures, ground shaking, soil liquefaction, debris avalanche, landslides, rock falls,

subsidence…

- volcanic eruptions, tephra, gas emission

Sea and ocean: wave storms, rogue waves, tsunami, salinization, erosion and sedimentation

Hydrology: river flooding, erosion and

sedimentation, drought, desertification,

snow avalanches

Wildfires: forest, grass, savannah, bush

Histograms with fatalities from natural disasters of 2011 vs.

average yearly figures in the interval 2001-2010. Here only

disasters as severe as to affect heavily a country are

considered. Notice that tsunamis are included in the

category of the earthquakes. The total number of deaths in

the decennium was more than 1 million and in 2011 slightly

less than 30000 with most of the victim attributable to the

11 March 2011 Tohoku tsunami, affecting Japan (from

“2011 Disasters in numbers”, a joint document of UNISDR,

www.unisdr.org/, USAID, and CRED, www.cred.be/,

published in www.preventionweb.net)

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Are they unavoidable?

Hazards are inevitable but not disasters.

Is the XXIst century society more vulnerable?

- Global population grows - Humans are more and more concentrated in plains and along the coasts - Concentration in the plains and along the coast (population density distribution) :

o 50% of population lives within 200 km from the coast

o 66% of population lives within 400 km from the coast

- There are more and more megacities: Urbanization and megacities (> 10 million people): in 50’s : only 2 megacities (NYC and Tokyo), nowadays 20

megacities.

- Dependence of lifelines increases

After https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/Demo_Trends_For_Web.pdf

Breaking the link

- risk assessment - sustainable development - prevention - preparedness - emergency response

The occurrence of

potentially hazardous

phenomenon is

inevitable

Disaters are not

inevitable

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Favourable and unfavourable factors for population density

Favourable factors

- Moderate climate - Fertile farming land - Mineral resources, mines produce j

materials for other industries - Low land with gentle slops and flat ground- Coastal areas - Good water supply - Wealthier areas

Rank Megacity Country

1 Tokyo Japan

2 Guangzhou China

3 Seoul South Korea

4 Jakarta Indonesia

5 Shanghai China

6 Mexico City Mexico

7 Delhi India

8 New York City United States

9 São Paulo Brazil

10 Karachi Pakistan

26 London United Kingdom

27 Paris France

After Brinkoff principal agglomerations of the world 2012

60 years ago only New-York and Tokyo were mega cities.

What are lifelines?

They are systems or networks that provide for the circulation of people, goods, services and information (Platt,

1991).

They are vital for health, safety confront and economic activity of the community.

Favourable and unfavourable factors for population density

Unfavourable factors

Mineral resources, mines produce jobs an d raw

Low land with gentle slops and flat ground

- Extreme climate (too cold or too hot)- Extreme relief - Extreme remoteness

The largest megacities in the world

Country Continent Population

Japan

Asia 34,500,000 0.60%

China

Asia 25,800,000 4.00%

South Korea

Asia 25,600,000 1.40%

Indonesia

Asia 25,300,000 2.00%

China

Asia 25,300,000 2.20%

Mexico

North America 23,200,000 2.00%

Asia 23,000,000 4.60%

United States

North America 21,500,000 0.30%

South America 21,100,000 1.40%

Pakistan

Asia 21,100,000 4.90%

United Kingdom

Europe 12,600,000 0.70%

France

Europe 10,600,000 1.00%

Brinkoff principal agglomerations of the world 2012

York and Tokyo were mega cities.

They are systems or networks that provide for the circulation of people, goods, services and information (Platt,

are vital for health, safety confront and economic activity of the community.

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Favourable and unfavourable factors for population density

Unfavourable factors

Extreme climate (too cold or too hot)

Extreme remoteness

Annual Growth

0.60%

4.00%

1.40%

2.00%

2.20%

2.00%

4.60%

0.30%

1.40%

4.90%

0.70%

1.00%

They are systems or networks that provide for the circulation of people, goods, services and information (Platt,

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Lifelines Key structures and facilities

- Transport - Water - Power - Electricity generation - Sewerage - Telecom - Fuel pipeline - Informatics networks

- Police - Fire brigade - Hospital - Ambulances - Emergency coordination centres - General medical care - Food distribution networks - Schools - Emergency shelters

Vulnerability of lifelines to natural hazards

Lifeline Earthquake Landslide Storm Floods

Power

Water

Sewer

Telecom

Road

Rail

Bridges

Airport

Port

What are the best strategies to mitigate the effects of natural hazards on lifelines?

Knowledge of

phenomenon

Geoscientist

Knowledge of the society

assets and dynamics

Engineers, social

scientists

Programmes

implementation

Politician decision

makers

Prevention

Hazard assessment Vulnerability and risk assessment mitigation plan

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What is the possible contribution of scientists

To provide knowledge To develop short-term mitigation plans including monitoring, forecast, warning systems To develop long- term prevention plan including sustainable development concept

Geoscientists need to speak to each other’s and these problems are interdisciplinary, they have to exchange with

social scientists. Teachers have to cooperate with authorities

To disseminate information on emergency plans

To stimulate the development and to participate in drills programmes involving schools

To develop educational plans in natural hazards on preventions issues.

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Understanding the earthquake generation process: key results and present grand challenges Massimo Cocco, instituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma Italy

What are the achievements of scientists about that?

The earthquake (EQ) generation process

Tectonic processes

- Tectonic plates sustain stress accumulation on their boundaries and faults - The mechanical state of these faults controls the energy release, the size, and frequency of EQ - EQ zone disrupts the state of stress in areas surrounding and faults interact with each other’s. - EQ deforms the landscape and shake the earth surface. - Strong EQ breaks the earth surface (example Kokoxili EQ in China)

The challenge is to reconcile geological observations of natural faults, seismological and geodetic measures

with lab tests.

-

Fault scale gouge scale grain scale

Seismology + Laboratory

Observing and detecting Progress in monitoring systems Multidisciplinary high-precision observation in nature and lab Progress in modelling and stimulating Integrated approach EQ do not occur everywhere

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Major EQ break well known active fault (example San Andreas fault)

EQ initiate on a small volume. Processes associated with nucleation are not well known.

Prevention and forecasting

Vulnerability: it is a set of prevailing or consequential conditions which adversely affects an individual, a

household or a community’s ability to mitigate, prepare for or respond to the earthquake hazard.

In Italy 20,000 schools were built before 1980. They are not antiseismic.

Probability of EQ occurrence on individual faults:

Transmitting probability to society is very complicated. For example if we say "you have 3% probability to have

an EQ with a magnitude 7 in the next 10 years", what does it mean?

Impact on society

Fundamental sciences --> applied science --> decision makers --> Society and local community

It is difficult to transmit efficient information from one to another.

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Recent EQ:

- Sumatra 2004

- L'Aquila (Italy) 2009

- Haïti 2010

- Maule (Chile)

- Christchurch (New-Zeeland)

- Tohoku (Japan) 2011

- Virginia (USA) 2011

Are we ready to communicate risks to society?

Yes and no, because of new communication eg. l'Aquila

This seismic event, despite its moderate magnitude, is an important study-case for earthquake science for

many different reasons: it is one of the best recorded normal faulting EQ with a distinctive foreshock-

aftershock sequence; it allowed the collection of an excellent multi-disciplinary near-source data set; its

impact on society and seismologists is unique.

This earthquake has left the scientific community and the involved stakeholders quite evident lessons

concerning the necessary prevention actions, as well as the urgent need to train and educate the society to

live in earthquake prone areas. These lessons should spur all the public authorities towards a better use of

seismic hazard maps and available information concerning the vulnerability of the Italian territory, with

particular attention to urban areas. Scientific achievements are transferred to decision-makers.

Every country has to protect, for the less, schools and hospitals.

Politics have to make an emergency plan efficient. For example in Aguila problem, they didn't know how old

the population was and how people can move.

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Convergent margins and mega-earthquakes Francesca Funicello, Laboratory of experimental tectonics, dep. geology, univ "ROMA tre"

Are EQ rare?

Definition from the "Oxford dictionnary" : a sudden violent shaking of the ground, typically causing great

destruction, as a result of movements within the earth’s crust or volcanic action.

How energy is spread during an EQ , see animations on http://www.iris.edu/hq/

- Using data instead of interpretation :

o http://earthquake.usgs.gov/

o http://www.iris.edu/hq/

o http://www.ingv.it/en/

- The earth is like a peach

http://scotese.com/: reconstitution dancing plates

3 different boundaries:

o Divergent

o Transform

o Convergent: subduction = motor why plates are moving. Most seismic activity.

Divergent margins are constructive, and convergent margin are destructive, the others are conservative.

Earthquakes are not rare

A lot of information comes from GPS. 30 satellites orbiting at 20,000 Km high

Most EQ are in subduction zone.

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Figure 1: Map of the subduction interface seismicity and trenches segmentation as in Heuret et al., 2011. The rupture area of the Mw ≥ 8.0 subduction interface events (1900-2007) is represented by red to black ellipses. The rupture areas are taken from McCann et al., [1979], Kanamori [1986], Schwartz et al. [1989], Byrne et al. [1992], Tichelaar and Ruff [1993], Johnson et al. [1994], Ishii et al. [2005], Fedotov et al. [2007], Ruppert et al. [2007], Bilek [2009]. The location of the events for which rupture area is not available is represented by a red cross. The number of Mw ≥ 5.5 subduction interface events (1976-2007) is represented for each 1° transect by a coloured dot.

Subduction velocities [Heuret, 2005] are represented by blue arrows.

Are mega EQ (> 7.5 ) rare events?

- Infrequent but not rare : one every 10 years

- 6 earthquakes over the last 106 years account for over half the energy

- From 2-10 km until 20-30km : area (in subduction), where earthquakes are

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/e/

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Figure 2: Schematic diagram illustrating interseismic and coseismic deformation associated with a subduction thrust fault (drawn by R. Hyndman).

From 10 to 200 years: interseismic phase The thrust is locked

A few minutes: thrust rupture

- Studying earthquakes in subduction (ref Ruff and Kanamori 1979)

http://www.depts.ttu.edu/gesc/Fac_pages/Yoshinobu/5362-Tectonics-

Web/pdfs%202012%20Tectonics/Ruff%20and%20Kanamori,%201980.pdf)

Why are there differences between Chile and Mariana?

o Chilean type : young oceanic lithosphere: large magnitude earthquake

o Mariana type : old oceanic lithosphere : small magnitude earthquake

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Figure 3.End-member types of subduction zones based on the age of sea floor being consumed. The Chilean-type subducts young, buoyant lithosphere, which resists subduction and results in a shallowly dipping seismic zone, shallow trench, great thrust earthquakes, back-arc folding, and thrust faulting. Young, warm crust may melt in the subduction zone. The Mariana-type subducts old, dense lithosphere, which readily sinks. Mariana-type subduction zones are characterized by a steeply dipping seismic zone, deep trench, absence of great thrust faults, and back-arc extension. (After R. J. Stern, A subduction primer for instructors of introductory-geology courses and authors of introductory-geology textbooks, J. Geosci. Educ., 46:221–228, 1998) From Encyclopedia article 'Subduction zones'

Which parameter is governing the subduction interplate seismicity?

Finding a governing parameter is complicated (not enough data)

- The asperity model: http://www.gps.caltech.edu/uploads/File/People/kanamori/HKepr82.pdf

- Multi-segment event concept (Bilek & Lay 2002)

Observing last japan earthquake shows that japan preparation is working: a high hazard is not always a high

risk.

- Subduction model: http://submap.gm.univ-montp2.fr/

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Risk assessment of Vesuvius volcano Franco Barberi

Eruptive history: 30.000 years ago -> 1944

30.000 years ago, first volcanic eruption = Somma Mons formation

18 000 to 79 AD: Pompeii: 4 major plinian eruptions alternated by a dozen of small explosive eruptions. Pliny the

Younger, a Roman writer published a detailed description of the 79 AD eruption

From 79 AD to 1944: growth of the present cone with long period of rest (centuries)

472-1631: 2 important sub-plinian eruptions

1944: last major eruption

The reference eruption for the Vesuvius emergency plan

In 1944 after nearly 3 centuries of almost continuous activity Vesuvius entered a new quiescence stage whose

duration cannot be assessed. The choice of the next eruption is of fundamental importance for the preparation of an

adequate plan for the protection of the exposed people. This is a difficult task because of recorded in the Vesuvius

eruptions along time. Recent studies addressed the evaluation of the probability of occurrence at short or mid-term

for the 3 main types of Vesuvius explosive eruptions.

On the basis of the past activity of the volcano, a sub-Plinian event, similar to that occurred in 1631, has been selected as a likely reference eruption for the Vesuvius preparedness plan for the protection of the exposed people. Main hazards are related to: pre-eruption earthquakes, ash fallout, pyroclastic flows, and lahar. The risk associated to each of these phenomena has been evaluated by combining hazard data (e.g. earthquake magnitude and depth; eruption column height, discharged ash mass, dominant wind direction; extension of pyroclastic flows and lahar) with vulnerability of the exposed buildings.

Main hazards related to a sub-plinian eruption

- Pre-eruption earthquakes

- Eruption on going :

o Ash fallout from wind dispersed tephra of sustained column

o Pyroclastic flows from column collapse

- Sin-and-post eruption: lahar by rain mobilization of loose tephra on the volcanic edifice and downwind steep

reliefs

Hazard assessment for pyroclastic fallout

-

Majority of case wind blow West to East (in that case, Naples is not affected)

Column height: 18 km with total discharged mass of 5x1011kg

To anticipate the ashes: roof vulnerability to ash load (depending on the age of the roof)

In any case (different ages)

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Naples city would be affected; ash would fallout over Rome in case of N-W wind.

Criticalities from pyroclastic fallout

Many persons live in zones that could be severely affected by tephra fallout in the first phase of the eruption. The highest damages would be produced by a WNW wind, toward the city of Naples, which fortunately has a very low occurrence probability (<1%). The zones to the East of the Vesuvius are the most exposed to pyroclastic fallout, as there is a probability of about 60 % that wind will blow toward ENE to SE. Depending on the specific wind direction and the dimensions of invested villages 22,960 to 32,415 roof collapses involving from 84,946 to 158,842 people are expected. Most of these collapses would obviously occur within the Red Zone which should have been evacuated. However, also villages outside that zone will be severely affected. As they are not exposed to pyroclastic flow hazard, their pre-eruption evacuation is not foreseen in the plan. The pyroclastic fallout is difficult to anticipate because of the wind that changes too rapidly. In few minutes

pyroclastic goes in periphery. If people are on set when eruption begin, the chance of surviving is almost 0.

Authorities have to anticipate (18 municipalities with 550 residents in the red zone)

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Two prevention actions can be envisaged to mitigate the roof collapse risk:

- At the moment of the eruption onset, when the exposed sectors will be known, people should be moved

from the buildings more vulnerable to ash load, to pre-identified safe near structures.

- A long-term program of intervention to reduce roof vulnerability in the vesuvian area has to be undertaken

The Vesuvius emergency plan

High quantity of people is involved, so the plan is really important. It success depends on the reliability of volcanic

forecast. Drilling exercises are regularly carried-out involving 1,000 to 2,000 students and their families in order to

improve links with hosting communities.

The success of the emergency plan depends on the reliability of volcanic forecast. Eruption is heralded by

geophysical and geochemical precursors:

o Anomalous seismicity

o Ground uplift

o Gravimetric, magnetic, electric anomalies

o New fumaroles and increasing heat flow and gas output

o Chemical and isotopic variations in the composition of gases and thermal waters

- Success : Pinatubo 1991

- False alarm : Soufrière 1976

Precursory phenomena are used to define the state of the volcano in a process with increasing

probability of eruption (alert level)

A recently discovered dramatic problem:

Magma pushing towards the surface generates pre-eruption earthquakes before alarm is declared and red zone

evacuated.

Many buildings in the red zone have an high level of seismic vulnerability, therefore vast damages caused by pre-eruption earthquakes have to be expected. This could lead to:

- Face up a severe seismic emergency, before the official warning of imminent eruption; - The ruins of the buildings deriving from total or partial collapses could compromise the practicability of

some crucial escape paths and hamper the rescue activities of the trapped victims. A Mitigation Plan to reduce the vulnerability of the buildings along the evacuation paths is urgently needed.

Conclusion: 550 000 people in red zone exposed to pyroclastic flow have to be evacuated before the eruption, but

it’s not that simple because of pre-eruption earthquakes.

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Tsunami hazard assessment: what did we learn since 2004 and 2011? Hélène Hebert

Laboratoire de Détection et de géophysique

Département Analyse Surveillance Environnement (CEA)

General:

Tsunami hazard is more and more studied :

o 1940/1960 : no one

o Since 2005 : in any oceanic basin exposed

What is a tsunami?

o a disturbance of the seafloor (EQ) quite close to the sea bottom

o a submarine landslide

o an aerial landslide or collapse

The sea surface is vertically deformed, causing a perturbation of the gravity potential energy. To restore

gravity forces, uplifts tend to go down, depressions are filled.

The tsunami phenomenon: amplification at the shore of a gravity wave that has propagated across the

ocean.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/tsunami/

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How can we observe tsunamis?

- temporal data : tide gauges deployed in harbours

- temporal sea bottom pressure gauges

- Satellite altimetry data : not really usefull

Study of a tide gauge: the first wave is not necessary the more important one. A harbor is disturbed during one or

two days. The harbor data is shaking before the tsunami due to the earthquake.

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Why modeling tsunamis?

o Historical catalogues are not complete

o Tsunami modeling : tsunami direction (maximum) is always perpendicular to the fault

o To build a risk prevention plan

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A classical result of the modeling is to display the maximum water heights spread over the ocean, highlighting the areas at risk. http://www.info-tsunami.fr/

http://www.cea.fr/jeunes/mediatheque/animations-flash/a-la-loupe/le-tsunami

Maximum water heights spread over the Pacific Ocean after the 2011 Tohoku tsunami

Risk prevention plan

Relies on: - Seismological networks - The sea level measurements to process possible tsunami signals - Automatic systems to disseminate warning messages.

The French Tsunami Warning Center (CENALT) has been operating since July 2012 and is responsible, for French authorities, for the tsunami watch in the western Mediterranean and North-eastern Atlantic.

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Triggered landslide events: statistics, implications and road network interactions Landslide (Mass wasting)

Bruce D, Malamud

Department of Geography, King’s College London, UK

http://www.kcl.ac.uk/sspp/departments/geography/people/academic/malamud/index.aspx

Introduction, landslides

Mass-Wasting: down slope movement of rock and regolith near Earth's surface (important part of erosional process)

mainly due to force of gravity.

Regolith: unconsolidated rock debris, including the basal soil horizons, overlying bedrock. The down-slope movement of material, whether bedrock, regolith, or a mixture, is commonly referred to as a landslide.

Triggered landslide events

Type of mass wasting processes

- Slope failure: sudden failure of the slope resulting in transport of debris downhill by sliding, rolling, falling, or

slumping.

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For examples: La Conchita, landslide and San Mateo slump, California.

http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/elnino/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qu88wb6gROg (kayaking sucks)

VIDEOS: http://daveslandslideblog.blogspot.com/2010/02/watch-this-extraordinary-landslide.html http://daveslandslideblog.blogspot.com/2010/02/update-on-italian-landslides.html See here for aftermath: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJtYTbQecNE&NR=1& Gattinoni et al. (2012) Landslides: http://www.springerlink.com/content/43ru3g5082171p45/

- Sediment flow: debris flows downhill mixed with water or air.

Sediment flow types (depends on % water present):

Slurry Flows: 20–40% water present. As water content increases above 40% slurry flows grade into streams. Slurry flows are considered water-saturated flows. http://elnino.usgs.gov//landslides-sfbay/photos

http://pr.water.usgs.gov/public/venezuela/ http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2011/06/28/video-of-the-week-debris-avalanche-on-mout-rainier/20

Granular Flows: 0–20% water present. Granular flows are possible with little or no water. Fluid-like behaviour is given these flows by mixing with air. Granular flows are not saturated with water.

Example: Ellsworth County, USA. http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Publications/pic13/pic13_2.html

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Factors influencing slope stability

Gravity: Main force responsible for mass wasting. So long as the material remains on the flat surface it will not move under the force of gravity.

Perpendicular component (gp): helps to hold the object in place on the slope. Tangential component (gt): causes a shear stress parallel to the slope that pulls the object in the down-slope direction.

When sheer stress > shear strength, the object will move down-slope. Shear stress is INCREASED by steeper slope angles. Shear strength is DECREASED by lowering cohesion among the particles and lowering the frictional resistance.

Water: not always directly involved as transport in mass-wasting processes, but plays an important role for example with the sand. Too much water is responsible of collapsing

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See experiments to carry out in a classroom: www.kcl.ac.uk/geography/people/academic/malamud/teaching.aspx

Triggered landslide events

- Examples of major triggers:

o Earthquake

o Heavy rainfall that reduce grain to grain contact, sudden snowmelt

o Volcanic eruption

- Other triggers :

o Slope modification by human

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o Undercutting river

o Fire

o Added mass

- Examples of triggered landslide events :

o Umbria central Italy : rapid snowmelt

o Northridge California : earthquake

o Guatemala : hurricane Mitch (http://landslides.usgs.gov/research/other/hurricanemitch/)

Triggered events and road network (lot of damages)

Examples:

- Collazone Italy

- Route 14 Utah: road worker walks along destroyed state Route 14, Oct. 8

Hazard assessment of mass wasting

http://www.unicaen.fr/mountainrisks/spip/spip.php?article11

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Mass-wasting events can be extremely hazardous and result in extensive loss of life and property. In most cases:

- Areas prone to such hazards can be recognized with some geologic knowledge. - Slopes can be stabilized or avoided. - Warning systems can be put in places that minimize the hazard.

http://www.itc.nl/ilwis/applications/application05.asp

http://landslides.usgs.gov/learning/nationalmap/

Prevention and mitigation of mass wasting

Mass-wasting events can sometimes be avoided by employing engineering techniques to make slope more stable.

Engineering mitigation technique examples: - Steep slopes can be covered or sprayed with concrete, or metal mesh. - Retaining walls can be built to stabilize slope. - Debris chutes can be used to channel flows - Rockfall sheds can protect road/railway - Drainage pipes inserted in slope to more easily allow water to get out - Over-steepened slopes could be graded to reduce the slope to the natural angle of repose.

Further web resources

General landslide information:

o Extensive FAQs about landslides designed for the public and teachers :

http://www.besafenet.net/267,0,0,0,2-Landslide.aspx

o Clear explanation of landslide types and causes including underwater landslides :

http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/earth/geology/landslide.htm

o Good photos and landslide vocabulary/ glossary :

http://education.nationalgeographic.com/education/encyclopedia/landslide/?ar_a=1

o Good university lecture on mass movements :

http://www.tulane.edu/~sanelson/eens1110/massmovements.htm

o Analysis and discussion of recent landslide events, updated regularly :

http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/

o This web site contains many publications (e.g under ‘learning and education’), photographs, and

other information on landslides not only in the USA, but also other parts of the world.

http://landslides.usgs.gov/

o Landslide hazard information, general information about different landslide types and causes :

http://geology.com/usgs/landslides/

o Information on preparedness and prevention :

http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/sea/landslides/

Activities and teaching resources:

o Quizzes and details answers about landslides :

http://lrm.australiangeomechanics.org/

o Comprehensive pack of student activities :

http://www.ga.gov.au/education/classroom-resources.html

o Lesson plan, activity, discussion questions and standards

http://www.discoveryeducation.com/teachers/free-lesson-plans/landslides.cfm

o Four lesson plans including activities looking at liquefaction

http://www.teachingboxes.org/earthquakes/lessons/lesson6.jsp

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o Lesson plans to get students thinking about natural hazards within their locale

http://www.evergreen.ca/en/lg/lessons/natural_disasters.html

o Lesson plan, table top exercises and discussion questions. Site also has lesson ideas for earthquake

hazards

http://www.nature.com/scitable/partner/earthquake-science-8666053/lesson-8-landslides-hazards-lt-br-gt-8704578

o ‘Game’6 hazards in 9 languages

http://www.e-oikos.net/gmap/oikosgame.html

o Great exercises to understand what structures would withstand a landslide:

http://www.teachengineering.org/view_activity.php?url=collection/cub_/activities/cub_natdis/cub_natdis_lesson05

_activity1.xml

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ESA: Earth Observation program and its applications to Natural hazards Franscesco Sarti

Directorate of Earth Observation Programmes

ESA/ESRIN

Introduction to ESA and EO programmes

Observing the Earth remotely. Observing = acquiring data and information using instruments (e.g. cameras, radiometers, spectrometers, radars) The Earth = includes the Earth’s surface (water, land), the Earth’s core (gravity sphere – geoid), the Earth’s atmosphere. Remotely = without being in physical contact with the Earth.

There are different types of satellites:

- Geostationary

- Polar

Different radiations are used:

- Visible

- IR: good to predict hurricane for example

- Synthetic aperture radar SAR (not depending on the atmospheric conditions)

ENVISAT mission: ten years Detection of natural events and human activity:

- Flooding in China SAR (july 2007)

- Australia floods SAR (2011)

- Louisiana oil spill SAR (2010)

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- Fire (in Moscow 2011)

- Iceland Volcanic eruption

- Hurricane

SAR: we observe the waves operated by the hurricane

Optical: we observe the top of the atmosphere

- Algal blooms (in Baltic sea)

- Costa Concordia (2012)

- Iceberg (Ross sea) Drygalski ice tongue

- Earthquake (distinction of 20 mm between 2 points) Etna deflating

- Vesuvius

- Nyragongo

- Greece Pyrgos fires

- Etna monitoring from space (radar interferometry)

- Super-storm Sandy, Haiti, October 2012

http://ew.eo.esa.int/web/guest/home

For school (with all videos)

International Charter:

www.disasterscharter.org GMES: http://copernicus.eu/ ESA Earth Watching: http://ew.eo.esa.int/web/guest/home

ESA Education:

http://www.esa.int/Education ESA Earth Observation: http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth ESA

Earth Observation Education:

https://earth.esa.int/web/guest/eo-education-and-training

Eduspace:

http://www.esa.int/SPECIALS/Eduspace_EN/

SEOS Project:

http://www.seos-project.eu/home.html

European program:

http://copernicus.eu/

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Submarine geohazards Angelo Camerlenghi

OGS Instituto Nazionale di oceanografia e di geofisica Sperimentale

Definitions:

Hazard: is an event posing a threat to life, health, property or environment. hazard assessment is the evaluation of

the the probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging event, (where, when, how frequently, magnitude)

vulnerability: is the probability that a community can be affected by the impact of a hazard.

Risk: is the probability that a specific hazard will cause harm.

Resilience: community's capacity to cope with and recover from impacts of natural hazards.

Risk = (hazard x vulnerability) – resilience

http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/trends-in-natural-disasters

The world is blue …. Importance of submarine geohazards (concentrate in continental margin):

Coastal areas with high population densities are those with the most shoreline degradation or alteration. Densely

populated areas close to seas are also the most attractive for a lot of economic activity.

- Earthquake : AD 365 earthquake eastern Mediterranean

- Volcanic island eruption (and flank collapse) : Minoan eruption of Santorini, caldera collapse 1645 BC

- Submarines landslides and sediment mass movements: submarine landslide (Eivissa Channel, Western

Mediterranean Sea). Concern for economic problems. Continental margin have a lot submarine landslide.

Since last age because of global warming: instability on the sea floor, landslide are not necessary associate to

seismic activity.

- Tsunamis

- Methane emissions: emission can be violent or not, when the gas going by chimney.

o Methane up : biogenic

o Methane down : thermogenic

- Meteorites impacts in the oceans

Global warming? Anthropization Poor planning

Preparedness of modern society

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Definitions •Submarine landslides are one of the main agents through which sediments are transferred across the continental slope to the deep ocean. •They are ubiquitous features of submarine slopes in all geological settings and at all water depths. •Hazards related to such landslides range from destruction of offshore facilities to collapse of coastal facilities and the generation of tsunamis.

They are of concern for safety of economic activity (energy, communications, possibly mineral ressources)

Approaches to the study of submarine landslides

• Characterization (morphology, geometry, structure) • Preconditioning factors (sedimentology, fluid flow regime, tectonic history…) • Triggers (external stimulus that initiates the process) • Transport mechanisms (flow mechanics) • Frequency (stratigraphic analysis and 14C dating)

The Mediterranean Sea Vulnerability

Very densely-populated coastline: 160 million inhabitants sharing 46,000 km of coastline (3.5 inhabitants per m of coastline). There are a lot of economic activities, it is a world’s leading holiday destination and there is an increasing use of the sea floor (oil, windmills, telecommunications, pipelines, fisheries, exploitation of mineral ...)

Example of a submarine landslide: Nice international airport 1979

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Methane emissions

Methane migrate and escape to the sea floor.

Hydrates of natural gas Gas hydrates are a solid phase composed of water and low-molecular weight gases (predominantly methane). The dissociation of hydrates generates large volumes of gas that may weaken the seafloor, causing submarine landslides. Warming climate could increase gas hydrates dissociation.

Météorite impact in the oceans

http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/

Conclusion

Climate change can increase the frequency and magnitude of submarine geohazards (gas emissions and submarine landslides)

- understanding of mechanisms is still poor - there are uncertainties on recurrence times - magnitude of events is extremely variable

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Space weather: storms from the sun Norma B.Crosby

Belgian Institute for Sace Aeronomy

How solar activity may have unwanted effects on technological systems and human activity?

3 examples of space weather

- Solar flares: rapid, sudden and intense variation in brightness. The magnetic energy is released plasma is heated and particle beams are accelerated in the solar atmosphere.

2 types of radiation: protons/electrons; electromagnetic waves (neutrons)

Electromagnetic radiation is emitted from radio waves through optical emission to X-rays and gamma-rays. October 29, 2003: Halloween storm

http://www.eiscouncil.com/images/upload/media/Geomagnetic%20Storms%20-%20Information%20Sheet.pdf

Consequence for the satellite like Skylab: its orbit changes due to space weather

- Coronal mass ejection: powerful eruption on the Sun’s surface

o Caused by instabilities in the Sun’s magnetic field

o Enormous bubbles of plasma are ejected from Sun at speeds from 100 to 20,000km/s.

o Geomagnetic storms: are temporary disturbances in the earth magnetosphere (can perturb GPS, HF

radio of airplanes….)

o Geomagnetic induced currents: GICs can have consequences for electrical power transmission systems. March 13, 1989, Quebec blackout. Quebec’s power lines shut off. 6 million people lost electrical power for 9 hours or more. http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html

- Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events :

o They are protons, electrons & heavy ions, up to the iron mass (and even beyond). During space missions, astronauts performing extra-vehicular activities are relatively unprotected.

o Sporadic events (ex : oct/nov 2003 during Halloween storm)

Radiation damages:

o On board electronics

o Between the Apollo 16 and 17 manned space missions one of the largest solar proton events ever

recorded arrived at earth (effect on DNA)

http://srag-nt.jsc.nasa.gov/SpaceRadiation/What/What.cfm

Educational examples:

- Exploring space (K - 15-18)

o Why going to Mars? Curiosity!

o Objective: compare the first explorers who traversed ocean 500 years ago are the one who will go in

the space.

o Why explore? :

The ocean: population pressure, new land, untouched natural resources, search for

knowledge.

The space: same as above and moreover: how did life evolve? Are we done? Science,

commerce, industries.

o Kids are faced questions if they will go in the space (1/2h) :

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Preparing for the trip (funding, education, politics)

Transportation technology used

Knowledge of trip (dangers, weather diseases, …)

Protection against dangers “mitigation”

How did/will the trip benefit humanity?

Write a paper with ideas and conclusion from students

(http://publications.agu.org/journals/)

- I love my sun (K – 10) (before teachers tell nothing about the sun to students)

o Part 1: a scientist visit the school

o Part 2: children are asked to draw the sun, and then a lecture is given on the sun and space weather.

Children are asked to draw it again.

o Part 3: filling in documents (school information, class information, general impression)

http://www.swsc-journal.org/topical%20issues:coastactionES080

http://ilovemysun.org/index.php/en/

Conclusion: space weather is an inter-disciplinary subject (science, engineering, medicine, business)

It is the perfect subject for:

- Teaching classics topics (math, biology, chemistry)

- Inspiring the next generation in regard to career opportunities

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Increase of extreme events in a warming world Stefan Rahmstorf

Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

History

Alexander Von Humboldt 1843: “Man changes climate”

John Tyndall 1859: greenhouse effect demonstrated in laboratory

“The atmosphere admits of the entrance of the solar heat, but checks its exit; and the result is a tendency to

accumulate heat at the surface of the planet”

Rising CO2 concentration is increasing since 1900. Where goes the CO2? In the ocean

Climate effect CO2 (sensitivity)

- Arrhenius law “if the quantity of carbonic acid [H2CO3] increases in geometric progression, the

augmentation of the temperature will increase nearly in arithmetic progression”

- When CO2 double… 10 years later temperature increase of 3°C, during the last decade it as increased of

+0.8°C

- Volcanoes, El Niño and La Niña must have effects on climate:

o Pinatubo and La Niña effects: temperature decrease

o El Niño effect: temperature increase

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2011-temps.html

Even without those events, the temperature increase.

- Global temperature during the Holocene

After Marcott et al

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Evolution of Arctic sea-ice extent since April 2010 in comparison to 2007 and 2009. The blue line denotes the mean

extent from 1979 until 2000, while the shaded region denotes the variability during that time

Half of the North Pole has been lost during summer (=loss of Arctic sea ice cover)

- Future (2300) depends on us (emissions):

Good scenario + 1,5°C and stable

Bad scenario +8°C

Results of French models for the evolution from 1850 to 2300 the average temperature (° C) on the surface of the Earth

in relation to the average of the years 1901 to 2000 measured (black curve). The results of the CNRM-Cerfacs are

presented in dotted lines and those of the IPSL in solid lines. They were determined from the different scenarios RCP:

RCP 2.6 (the most optimistic), RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 (the most severe). The results obtained by French

institutions for intermediate scenario relatively consistent with those published by the British (plus 1.4 to 3.0 ° C) for

the year 2050, despite the different modeling techniques. © Patrick Brockmann (LSCE / IPSL, CEA / CNRS / UVSQ)

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- The continent warmed more than ocean : Arctic, Himalaya loss of ice so loss of reflection

- Sea level rise : it’s rising (20 cm since 1880) and accelerate nowadays (3mm/year)

Annual averages of the global mean sea level (mm). The red curve shows reconstructed sea level fields since 1870 (updated from

Church and White, 2006); the blue curve shows coastal tide gauge measurements since 1950 (from Holgate and Woodworth, 2004)

and the black curve is based on satellite altimetry (Leuliette et al., 2004). The red and blue curves are deviations from their averages

for 1961 to 1990, and the black curve is the deviation from the average of the red curve for the period 1993 to 2001. Error bars show

90% confidence intervals.

The future is uncertain but will rise from 0,5 m to 2m in 2100

Source: Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment, NOAA (2012)

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Weather extremes

- Nature “Climate change” March 2012

- World bank report 2012 : http://climatechange.worldbank.org/

- Heat waves : Summer 2003 = at the time : summer of the century, but beaten by summer 2010

Temperature: 2010> 2003>2002>2006>2007: not anymore single event

Sighting distribution of Northern Hemisphere land summer temperature anomalies:

The upper panel shows the statistical frequency distribution of European (35° N, 70° N; 25° W, 40° E) summer land-temperature

anomalies (relative to the 1970–1999 period) for the 1500–2010 period (vertical lines). The five warmest and coldest summers are

highlighted. Grey bars represent the distribution for the 1500–2002 period with a Gaussian fit shown in black. The lower panel shows

the running decadal frequency of extreme summers, defined as those with a temperature above the ninety-fifth percentile of the

1500–2002 distribution

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/fig_tab/nclimate1452_F4.html

Problem: forest fire (Greece 2007), bush fires (Australia 2009)

- Extreme rainfall : for an increase of 1°C, you can put 7% of moisture in addition in the atmosphere

Ex : Germany, England, Pakistan (2010, 1/15 of total land area affected), Australia (2011, exceptional blip in

global sea level)

- Tropical cyclones :

Strongest cyclones are increasing globally (NB: debate about the data in the past)

2004: unprecedented Atlantic hurricane (28 tropical storms)

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Hurricane power in red SST tropical Atlantic in blue Global temperature in black

The hurricane power is increasing (there a connection with the temperature of Atlantic Ocean)

Seems to be a connection of sea ice and pressure patterns: without ice on the north pole (when sea ice loss),

the pressure increases. Those pressures can (maybe) explain the left turn of Sandy, which goes directly to

NYC.

http://static2.egu.eu/media/filer_public/2013/06/20/rahmstorf.pdf