Mark Ogden - portal.adtran.comportal.adtran.com/pub/Library/Presentations/2014...1992 1997 2002 2007...
Transcript of Mark Ogden - portal.adtran.comportal.adtran.com/pub/Library/Presentations/2014...1992 1997 2002 2007...
ADTRAN Company Confidential® Adtran, Inc. 2013 All rights reserved 1
Mark OgdenSales Director, ADTRAN
ADTRAN Company Confidential® Adtran, Inc. 2013 All rights reserved 2
“Everything that can be invented has been invented.”
—1899 — Charles H. DuellCommissioner of U.S. Office of Patents
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“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers…”
—1943 — Thomas WatsonChairman of IBM
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“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home”
—1977 — Ken OlsonChairman of Digital Equipment Corp.
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“Spam will be a thing of the past in two years time”
—2004 — Bill Gates, Chairman of Microsoft
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Always appears incremental until its too late.
— Mike Walsh, Futurist
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Why is change accelerating?
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Moore’s LawNumber of transistors double approximately every 24 months
1971 1978 2003 2013
# of
Tra
nsis
tors
AMD Jaguar5B Transistors
Intel Pentium 455M
Transistors
Intel 808629K
Transistors
1st Microprocessor2,300
Transistors
Moore’s Actual
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Gilder’s LawThe total bandwidth of communication systems triples every twelve months.
1997 2007 2017
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0.000
0.001
0.010
0.100
1.000
10.000
100.000
1,000.000
10,000.000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Inte
rnet
Acc
ess
Rat
e (M
bps)
Year
Trend projection: 1 Gbps in 2020
Voiceband Modems Cable Modems, DSL and FTTx
Disruptive Event: 1 Gbps in 2013
Residential service rates ≈ 45% annual growth since 1980sDiscontinuity – Jump to 1 Gbps?
Not available everywhere
Broadband Access – Historical Trends
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Metcalfe’s LawThe value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes
2 Users1 Connection
5 Users10 Connections
Many UsersExponential Benefit
n(n-1)/2 = connections where n = # users
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Convergence of the 3 Laws
Moore’s LawValue of Computing
Gilder’s LawValue of
Communications
Metcalfe’s LawValue of
Networking
Synergistic Reaction
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1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017
100 Gigabytes per Day
100 Gigabytes per Hour
100 Gigabytes
per Second
2,000 Gigabytes
per Second
16,800 Gigabytes
per Second
46,500 Gigabytes
per SecondGlobal Internet Traffic
*Cisco VNI forecast
SynergisticReaction
All movies
ever made
crossing the
global network
every 4 mins.
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The real question…
So the analysts say I need to worry about more bandwidth…but who really cares about a gig?
If 1 gig was an option for the same price, would you take it?
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New York TimesFebruary 19, 2014, 7:52 pm
Google Fiber, Ultrahigh-Speed Internet, May Expand to 34 New CitiesBy CLAIRE CAIN MILLER
On Wednesday, even though Google has notyet connected all the households that signedup in Kansas City and none in Austin, itannounced that it would consider installingFiber in the metropolitan areas of San Jose,Calif.; Salt Lake City; Phoenix; San Antonio;Nashville; Atlanta; Charlotte, N.C.; Raleigh-Durham, N.C.; and Portland, Ore.
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C Spire Greenlights Three 'Fiberhoods' For 1-Gig Service
Mississippi’s Horn Lake, Quitman and Starkville Are First In Line For Coming Deployment By: Jeff Baumgartner Feb 19 2014 - 09:28am
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And in April…
AT&T poised to take gigabit fiber broadband to North Carolina
The NCNGN is a regional initiative that spans six communities in the Triangle and Piedmont Triad regions of North Carolina. The group, which issued a request for proposal for interested broadband providers, includes members of the cities' chambers of commerce, representatives from several area universities and a nonprofit group called Gig.U. The cities involved in the project include Winston-Salem, Cary, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Durham, and Raleigh.
“This kind of private sector investment is essential to ensure our
regions remain competitive and at the forefront of next-generation
applications that are important to all sectors of the economy,"Tracy Futhey, chair of the NCNGN Steering Committee and
Duke University, vice president of Information Technology
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Is 1G going to be enough?
“Everything that can be invented has been invented”
“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers…”
“There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home”
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Global GPON spend remains constant in CY14
*Infonetics 3Q13
10G Begins
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Frontier Offers Wavelength Service in 25 States 02/18/2014
A new 10-gigabit wavelength service from Frontier Communications, introduced yesterday in Frontier local markets in 25 states, should trigger some new fiber deployments to business locations. The carrier is prepared to lay fiber to buildings for customers that order the Frontier Optical Transport Service and do not already have fiber connectivity, said Lisa Partridge, Frontier manager of product management, in an interview.“If we don’t lay the fiber someone else will,” said Partridge. “We believe it’s necessary because of how quickly bandwidth is doubling and tripling.”
The 25 markets where Frontier Optical Transport Service will be available are in Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
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Can another law foretell new change?
Moore’s LawValue of Computing
Gilder’s LawValue of
Communications
Metcalfe’s LawValue of
Networking
Mark’s Law
Available Capital trumps all other Laws
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Up to $100 million will be available - divided into three groups:
• $75 million to test construction of networks offering service plans providing 25 Mpbs downloads and 5 Mbps uploads – far in excess of the current Connect America Fund standard of 4/1 – for the same or lower amounts of support than will be offered to carriers in Phase II of Connect America
• $15 million to test interest in delivering service at 10/1 speeds in high cost areas
• $10 million for 10/1 service in areas that are extremely costly to serve
FCC RURAL BROADBAND EXPANSION EXPERIMENTSApplicants Will Compete to Deploy High-Performing Service at Lower Cost
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1. Rate of change will accelerate
2. Demand for connectivity and capacity is “infinite”
3. Users demand everything “instantly”‒ Any Service, Anywhere, Any Device, Anytime
So… What Can We Conclude?
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What does this mean to Carriers, OEMs, and the industry?
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Breaking Down the Bottlenecks
Outside Plant
Access Systems (Backplanes & Processors)
Transport Systems and Facilities
The bottlenecks that emerge…
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Breaking Down the Bottlenecks
More Fiber – New Photonics
Access System Capacity & Flexibility
Convergence of Access and Transport
Evolve … Change … Grow…
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Must adapt the way we run our businesses
Enhance the network◦ Speed/Capacity – sure◦ New Operational Environments
Recognize new ways to generate revenue◦ New Serving Areas◦ New Solutions
Optimize our organizations to match the new business models◦ Software Defined Network / Cloud◦ New Back-office Systems
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