Metodología de Johansen
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Transcript of Metodología de Johansen
METODOLOGÍA DE JOHANSEN
Objetivo: tener un modelo óptimo de cointegración.
TENDECIA DETERMINÍSTICA
y x
t t
Yt=1 y t−1+e yt X t=1 X t−1+ext
∝Y t+βX t=e t…………. (1 )
Existen variables que son aleatorias pero obedecen una tendencia determinística, según Johansen las variables no solo están cointegradas por su comportamiento sino también por la tendencia
et+∝Y t+βX t=e t
**et: tendencia determinística.
TENDENCIA ESTOCASTICA
Una variable que no está impuesta
δ t+∝Y t+βX t=e t
**δt : Tendencia estocástica, es como si existiera un intercepto.
Existen un conjunto de maneras de encontrar un mismo resultado.
Si se tiene “n” variables pueden existir, “n-1” vectores de cointegración.
EJEMPLO:
Consumo-Ingresos-Precio
Consumo =f (ingreso)
Ingreso = g (consumo)
** Matemáticamente se puede obtener dichas ecuaciones, pero no todas son de la realidad.
***Por lo tanto se puede dar, modelos de doble causalidad.
PRINCIPIOS DE JOHANSE
** Si se tiene “n” vectores de cointegración y “n” variables, entonces nos e tiene ningún vector de cointegración relevante económicamente.
EVIEWS
TEST DE COINTEGRACION DE JOHANSEN
Views-cointegration tets- johanse
1 no intercepto, con tendencia
2. intercep, no intercepto en var
3. interceptp
Sumary (resumen)
Date: 11/03/15 Time: 09:25Sample: 1992M01 2004M02Included observations: 141Series: IMPORT_SA ITCRM_SA ITI_SA PBI_SALags interval: 1 to 4
Selected (0.05 level*) Number of
Cointegrating Relations by
Model
Data Trend: None None Linear Linear QuadraticTest Type No Intercept Intercept Intercept Intercept Intercept
No Trend No Trend No Trend Trend TrendTrace 1 2 0 0 0
Max-Eig 1 1 0 0 0
*Critical values based on MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999)
Information Criteria by Rank and
Model
Data Trend: None None Linear Linear QuadraticRank or No Intercept Intercept Intercept Intercept Intercept
No. of CEs No Trend No Trend No Trend Trend Trend
Log Likelihood by Rank (rows) and Model (columns)
0 -2164.705 -2164.705 -2154.816 -2154.816 -2152.3561 -2150.339 -2150.287 -2144.748 -2144.195 -2142.1492 -2141.681 -2140.991 -2137.538 -2136.944 -2135.0713 -2140.481 -2133.829 -2133.401 -2130.941 -2129.3004 -2139.604 -2132.629 -2132.629 -2126.808 -2126.808
Akaike Information Criteria by
Rank (rows) and Model (columns)
0 31.61283 31.61283 31.52930 31.52930 31.551151 31.52253 31.53599 31.49997* 31.50632 31.519852 31.51320 31.53179 31.51118 31.53112 31.532923 31.60965 31.55786 31.56597 31.57363 31.564544 31.71070 31.66849 31.66849 31.64267 31.64267
Schwarz Criteria by
Rank (rows) and Model (columns)
0 32.95127* 32.95127* 32.95140 32.95140 33.056901 33.02828 33.06265 33.08937 33.11663 33.192912 33.18626 33.24668 33.26789 33.32965 33.373283 33.45001 33.46096 33.48998 33.56038 33.572204 33.71837 33.75981 33.75981 33.81764 33.81764
** Si se agrega un coeficiente, quiere decir que es la tendencia estocástica.
***Según teoría los mejores son los de verde (tipo)
Otra vez johansen, con modelo 2
Date: 11/03/15 Time: 09:31Sample (adjusted): 1992M06 2004M02
Included observations: 141 after adjustmentsTrend assumption: No deterministic trend (restricted constant)Series: IMPORT_SA ITCRM_SA ITI_SA PBI_SALags interval (in first differences): 1 to 4
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.184946 64.15137 54.07904 0.0049At most 1 * 0.123532 35.31679 35.19275 0.0485At most 2 0.096603 16.72519 20.26184 0.1431At most 3 0.016881 2.400538 9.164546 0.6974
Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.184946 28.83457 28.58808 0.0465At most 1 0.123532 18.59160 22.29962 0.1523At most 2 0.096603 14.32465 15.89210 0.0867At most 3 0.016881 2.400538 9.164546 0.6974
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
IMPORT_SA ITCRM_SA ITI_SA PBI_SA C-0.010026 -0.069275 0.037860 0.000559 5.019505-0.025381 -0.078013 0.265404 0.002954 -30.59776-0.000390 -0.292451 -0.146400 -0.000293 46.53593 0.010618 -0.017441 0.035845 -0.000808 0.006085
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(IMPORT_SA) 12.04678 6.416659 -2.375873 -2.198127D(ITCRM_SA) 0.132587 0.203530 0.296212 0.058666
D(ITI_SA) 0.005801 -0.182924 0.379676 -0.221972D(PBI_SA) 78.47823 -19.84313 0.016440 -0.512702
1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -2150.287
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)IMPORT_SA ITCRM_SA ITI_SA PBI_SA C
1.000000 6.909533 -3.776138 -0.055775 -500.6463 (5.71920) (3.89804) (0.02102) (992.139)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)D(IMPORT_SA) -0.120782
(0.03268)D(ITCRM_SA) -0.001329
(0.00111)D(ITI_SA) -5.82E-05
(0.00195)D(PBI_SA) -0.786827
(0.15684)
2 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -2140.991
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)IMPORT_SA ITCRM_SA ITI_SA PBI_SA C
1.000000 0.000000 -15.81027 -0.164939 2572.741 (3.61698) (0.02268) (486.312)
0.000000 1.000000 1.741670 0.015799 -444.8039 (0.87375) (0.00548) (117.478)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)D(IMPORT_SA) -0.283641 -1.335125
(0.08755) (0.33473)D(ITCRM_SA) -0.006495 -0.025063
(0.00298) (0.01141)D(ITI_SA) 0.004585 0.013869
(0.00528) (0.02020)D(PBI_SA) -0.283193 -3.888589
(0.42412) (1.62148)
3 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood -2133.829
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)IMPORT_SA ITCRM_SA ITI_SA PBI_SA C
1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.023961 -1085.026 (0.04550) (434.884)
0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 -0.005010 -41.86171 (0.00234) (22.3825)
0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.011948 -231.3539 (0.00399) (38.0901)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses)D(IMPORT_SA) -0.282714 -0.640298 2.506923
(0.08737) (0.99398) (0.97783)D(ITCRM_SA) -0.006611 -0.111690 0.015672
(0.00290) (0.03294) (0.03241)D(ITI_SA) 0.004436 -0.097168 -0.103914
(0.00520) (0.05918) (0.05822)D(PBI_SA) -0.283200 -3.893397 -2.297687
(0.42416) (4.82573) (4.74734)
*NONE: no tiene ningún vector de cointegración. =0.0045, entonces se rechaza la hipótesis nula
Ho: no tiene ningún vector
Ha: tiene algún vector
*AL MOST 1: 0.0475 (rechaza Ho)
Ho: a lo más tiene un vector de cointegración.
Ha: tiene más de un vector de cointegración.
*AL MOST 2: 0.1497 (Acepta Ho)
*** trabaja con 2 vectores de cointegración