Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresiónCoeficiente d 0.99357439Coeficiente 0.98719007R^2 ajustado 0.98662074Error típico 0.02637177Observacione 48

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZAGrados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F

Regresión 2 2.41182049 1.20591024 1733.94985 2.62907E-43Residuos 45 0.03129615 0.00069547Total 47 2.44311664

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%Intercepción 1.84208146 0.01617669 113.872583 4.99124E-57 1.80949994 1.87466299 1.80949994Variable X 1 0.18083943 0.00518429 34.8821724 3.20424E-34 0.17039773 0.19128114 0.17039773Variable X 2 -0.52726149 0.01111285 -47.4461143 4.48621E-40 -0.54964392 -0.50487906 -0.54964392

Superior 95.0%1.874662990.19128114

-0.50487906

Lluvias máximas (mm).- Estación ConchucosT P.Max Duración en minutos

años 24 horas 5 10 15 20 30 60500 58.2 6.7 10.1 12.3 14.1 16.7 22.0143 51.3 5.8 8.6 10.6 12.0 14.3 18.8

71 47.4 5.2 7.8 9.6 10.9 13.0 17.035 43.4 4.7 7.0 8.6 9.8 11.6 15.330 42.6 4.6 6.8 8.3 9.5 11.3 14.910 41.4 3.7 5.5 6.8 7.7 9.2 12.05 33.0 3.2 4.7 5.8 6.6 7.9 10.32 25.2 2.5 3.7 4.5 5.1 6.1 8.0

Fuente: Elaboración del autor aplicando el Modelo de Bell

Intensidades máximas (mm/hora).- Estación ConchucosT P.Max Duración en minutos

años 24 horas 5 10 15 20 30 60500 58.2 80.9 60.5 49.3 42.2 33.5 22.0143 51.3 69.2 51.8 42.2 36.1 28.7 18.8

71 47.4 62.7 46.9 38.2 32.7 26.0 17.035 43.4 56.1 42.0 34.2 29.3 23.2 15.330 42.6 54.7 40.9 33.4 28.5 22.6 14.910 41.4 44.5 33.3 27.1 23.2 18.4 12.05 33.0 38.0 28.4 23.2 19.8 15.7 10.32 25.2 29.5 22.1 18.0 15.4 12.2 8.0

Log (I) = Log (K) + m Log (T) -n Log (t)

a0 1.84208146 k 69.5154699a1 0.18083943 m 0.18083943a2 -0.52726149 n 0.52726149

tr 5 10 30 505 39.8054773 45.1212299 55.0380788 60.3645917

10 27.6198498 31.3082941 38.1893039 41.885214530 15.4758193 17.5425104 21.3980441 23.468918750 11.8217385 13.4004518 16.3456342 17.9275432

100 8.20275657 9.2981793 11.3417548 12.4393949120 7.45093203 8.44595367 10.302225 11.2992608

O bien: Y = a0 + a1 X1 + a2 X2

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1400

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 CURVAS IDF

tr-5

tr-10

tr-30

tr-50

DURACION min

INTE

NSID

ADES

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1400

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 CURVAS IDF

tr-5

tr-10

tr-30

tr-50

DURACION min

INTE

NSID

ADES

Y X1 X2Log (I) Log(T) Log(t)

1.9 2.69897 0.698971.8 2.15533604 0.698971.8 1.85125835 0.698971.7 1.54406804 0.698971.7 1.47712125 0.698971.6 1 0.698971.6 0.69897 0.698971.5 0.30103 0.698971.8 2.69897 11.7 2.15533604 11.7 1.85125835 11.6 1.54406804 11.6 1.47712125 11.5 1 11.5 0.69897 11.3 0.30103 11.7 2.69897 1.176091261.6 2.15533604 1.176091261.6 1.85125835 1.176091261.5 1.54406804 1.176091261.5 1.47712125 1.176091261.4 1 1.176091261.4 0.69897 1.176091261.3 0.30103 1.176091261.6 2.69897 1.301031.6 2.15533604 1.301031.5 1.85125835 1.301031.5 1.54406804 1.301031.5 1.47712125 1.301031.4 1 1.30103

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1400

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 CURVAS IDF

tr-5

tr-10

tr-30

tr-50

DURACION min

INTE

NSID

ADES

1.3 0.69897 1.301031.2 0.30103 1.301031.5 2.69897 1.477121251.5 2.15533604 1.477121251.4 1.85125835 1.477121251.4 1.54406804 1.477121251.4 1.47712125 1.477121251.3 1 1.477121251.2 0.69897 1.477121251.1 0.30103 1.477121251.3 2.69897 1.778151251.3 2.15533604 1.778151251.2 1.85125835 1.778151251.2 1.54406804 1.778151251.2 1.47712125 1.778151251.1 1 1.778151251.0 0.69897 1.778151250.9 0.30103 1.77815125

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1400

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 CURVAS IDF

tr-5

tr-10

tr-30

tr-50

DURACION min

INTE

NSID

ADES

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresiónCoeficiente d 0.95514367Coeficiente 0.91229942R^2 ajustado 0.91130846Error típico 0.10422644Observacione 180

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZAGrados de libertadSuma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F

Regresión 2 20.001568 10.000784 920.615377 2.85573E-94Residuos 177 1.92277776 0.01086315Total 179 21.9243458

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%Intercepción 2.15001913 0.0246745 87.1352751 2.6783E-147 2.10132507 2.1987132 2.10132507Variable X 1 0.3375225 0.02096471 16.0995562 1.66938E-36 0.29614955 0.37889546 0.29614955Variable X 2 -0.61517574 0.01546647 -39.7748041 3.45891E-90 -0.64569815 -0.58465333 -0.64569815

Superior 95.0%2.1987132

0.37889546-0.58465333

REGISTRO DE INTENSIDADES MAXIMAS (mm/h)ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER

Altitud: 2536 m.s.n.m

Ubicación

Longitud: 78° 30'

Latitud: 07° 10'

AÑO 5 min. 10 min. 30 min.1 1973 112.8 75.15 45.05

2 1974 111.6 75 41

3 1975 101 73 40.6

4 1976 92 71.8 38

5 1977 91.49 71 37.94

6 1978 90 68.1 37.2

7 1979 89.1 66.34 37

8 1980 88.29 65.4 37

9 1981 84.6 65.08 36.22

10 1982 83 64.18 35.04

11 1983 82.2 63 35.04

12 1984 81.3 60.21 34

13 1985 78 60.1 33.8

14 1986 76 60 32.44

15 1987 75.3 58 31.4

16 1988 73.6 56.25 30.11

17 1989 73.02 56.07 30.03

18 1990 73 54.8 29.2

19 1991 71.11 54.4 29.13

20 1992 70.4 53 28.66

21 1993 70.08 52.8 28

22 1994 68 51 28

23 1995 68 50.4 27.6

24 1996 67.2 50.06 25.56

25 1997 65 50 24

26 1998 60 49.2 24

27 1999 59.31 47.8 23

28 2000 58 44 22

29 2001 56.07 40.4 21.6

30 2002 56 39 21

31 2003 42 30.7 19

32 2004 40.8 29.28 17.24

33 2005 38.4 28.3 15.7

34 2006 28.9 25.8 14.5

35 2007 26 24 13.5

36 2008 16.8 14.03 9.4

Fuente: SENAMHI Cajamarca

Log (I) = Log (K) + m Log (T) -n Log (t)

a0 2.15001913a1 0.3375225a2 -0.61517574

TIEMPO DE RETORNODURACION min 5 10

5 90.3540963 114.17006410 58.9877045 74.535967730 30.0087617 37.918615650 21.9165458 27.6934144

100 14.3082248 18.0796556120 12.7901422 16.1614295

O bien: Y = a0 + a1 X1 + a2 X2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 1300

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220 CURVAS IDF

TR-5 AÑOS

TR-10 AÑOS

TR-30 AÑOS

TR-50 AÑOS

DURACION min

INTE

NSID

ADES

REGISTRO DE INTENSIDADES MAXIMAS (mm/h)ESTACIÓN WEBERBAWER

Depart: Cajamarca

Provincia: Cajamarca

Distrito: Cajamarca

60 min. 120 min. T.R

27.1 19 37.0026.03 14.02 18.50

26 14 12.3323.71 14 9.2523.1 13.99 7.40

23.03 13.5 6.1723 13.27 5.2923 13.02 4.63

21.08 12.91 4.1121 12.01 3.70

19.04 12 3.3619 11.12 3.08

18.02 11 2.8518 11 2.6418 10 2.47

17.88 10 2.3117.86 9.8 2.1816.72 9.6 2.06

16 9.4 1.9516 9.32 1.85

15.63 9.28 1.7615.6 9 1.68

15.54 8.94 1.6114.7 8.23 1.5414.6 8.05 1.4814 7.95 1.42

13.79 7.85 1.3713.2 7.6 1.3212.9 6.55 1.2812 6.3 1.23

10.57 6.02 1.1910.49 6.01 1.16

10 6 1.129.4 5 1.09

8.4 4.6 1.066.34 3.71 1.03

k 141.259977m 0.3375225n 0.61517574

TIEMPO DE RETORNO30 50

165.421291 196.548779107.99535 128.316942

54.9403768 65.278562140.1250573 47.675429126.1956582 31.124921223.4163356 27.8226107

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 1300

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220 CURVAS IDF

TR-5 AÑOS

TR-10 AÑOS

TR-30 AÑOS

TR-50 AÑOS

DURACION min

INTE

NSID

ADES

Y X1 X2Log (I) Log(T) Log(t)

1.87592898 1.56820172 11.87506126 1.26717173 11.86332286 1.09108047 11.85612444 0.96614173 11.85125835 0.86923172 11.83314711 0.79005047 11.82177547 0.72310368 11.81557775 0.66511174 11.81344754 0.61395921 11.80739971 0.56820172 11.79934055 0.52680904 11.77966863 0.48902048 11.77887447 0.45425837 11.77815125 0.42207369 11.76342799 0.39211047 11.75012253 0.36408174 11.74873056 0.3377528 11.73878056 0.31292922 11.7355989 0.28944812 1

1.72427587 0.26717173 11.72263392 0.24598243 11.70757018 0.22577904 11.70243054 0.20647389 11.69949085 0.18799048 1

1.69897 0.17026172 11.6919651 0.15322838 11.6794279 0.13683796 1

1.64345268 0.12104369 11.60638137 0.10580373 11.59106461 0.09108047 11.48713838 0.07684003 11.46657107 0.06305175 11.45178644 0.04968778 11.41161971 0.03672281 1

1.38021124 0.02413368 11.14705767 0.01189922 1

1.6536948 1.56820172 1.477121251.61278386 1.26717173 1.477121251.60852603 1.09108047 1.477121251.5797836 0.96614173 1.47712125

1.57909733 0.86923172 1.477121251.57054294 0.79005047 1.477121251.56820172 0.72310368 1.477121251.56820172 0.66511174 1.477121251.55894845 0.61395921 1.477121251.5445641 0.56820172 1.477121251.5445641 0.52680904 1.47712125

1.53147892 0.48902048 1.477121251.5289167 0.45425837 1.47712125

1.51108085 0.42207369 1.477121251.49692965 0.39211047 1.477121251.47871076 0.36408174 1.477121251.47755533 0.3377528 1.477121251.46538285 0.31292922 1.477121251.46434048 0.28944812 1.477121251.45727619 0.26717173 1.477121251.44715803 0.24598243 1.477121251.44715803 0.22577904 1.477121251.44090908 0.20647389 1.477121251.40756085 0.18799048 1.477121251.38021124 0.17026172 1.477121251.38021124 0.15322838 1.477121251.36172784 0.13683796 1.477121251.34242268 0.12104369 1.477121251.33445375 0.10580373 1.477121251.32221929 0.09108047 1.477121251.2787536 0.07684003 1.47712125

1.23653726 0.06305175 1.477121251.19589965 0.04968778 1.47712125

1.161368 0.03672281 1.477121251.13033377 0.02413368 1.477121250.97312785 0.01189922 1.477121251.43296929 1.56820172 1.778151251.41547417 1.26717173 1.778151251.41497335 1.09108047 1.778151251.37493155 0.96614173 1.778151251.36361198 0.86923172 1.778151251.36229394 0.79005047 1.778151251.36172784 0.72310368 1.778151251.36172784 0.66511174 1.778151251.32387061 0.61395921 1.778151251.32221929 0.56820172 1.77815125

1.27966694 0.52680904 1.778151251.2787536 0.48902048 1.77815125

1.25575479 0.45425837 1.778151251.25527251 0.42207369 1.778151251.25527251 0.39211047 1.778151251.25236751 0.36408174 1.778151251.25188145 0.3377528 1.778151251.22323627 0.31292922 1.778151251.20411998 0.28944812 1.778151251.20411998 0.26717173 1.778151251.19395898 0.24598243 1.778151251.1931246 0.22577904 1.77815125

1.19145101 0.20647389 1.778151251.16731733 0.18799048 1.778151251.16435286 0.17026172 1.778151251.14612804 0.15322838 1.778151251.13956427 0.13683796 1.778151251.12057393 0.12104369 1.778151251.11058971 0.10580373 1.778151251.07918125 0.09108047 1.778151251.02407499 0.07684003 1.778151251.02077549 0.06305175 1.77815125

1 0.04968778 1.778151250.97312785 0.03672281 1.778151250.92427929 0.02413368 1.778151250.80208926 0.01189922 1.778151251.2787536 1.56820172 2.07918125

1.14674801 1.26717173 2.079181251.14612804 1.09108047 2.079181251.14612804 0.96614173 2.079181251.14581771 0.86923172 2.079181251.13033377 0.79005047 2.079181251.12287092 0.72310368 2.079181251.11461098 0.66511174 2.079181251.11092624 0.61395921 2.079181251.07954301 0.56820172 2.079181251.07918125 0.52680904 2.079181251.04610479 0.48902048 2.079181251.04139269 0.45425837 2.079181251.04139269 0.42207369 2.07918125

1 0.39211047 2.079181251 0.36408174 2.07918125

0.99122608 0.3377528 2.079181250.98227123 0.31292922 2.079181250.97312785 0.28944812 2.079181250.96941591 0.26717173 2.079181250.96754798 0.24598243 2.079181250.95424251 0.22577904 2.07918125

0.95133752 0.20647389 2.079181250.91539984 0.18799048 2.079181250.90579588 0.17026172 2.079181250.90036713 0.15322838 2.079181250.89486966 0.13683796 2.079181250.88081359 0.12104369 2.079181250.8162413 0.10580373 2.07918125

0.79934055 0.09108047 2.079181250.77959649 0.07684003 2.079181250.77887447 0.06305175 2.079181250.77815125 0.04968778 2.07918125

0.69897 0.03672281 2.079181250.66275783 0.02413368 2.079181250.56937391 0.01189922 2.079181252.0523091 1.56820172 0.69897

2.04766419 1.26717173 0.698972.00432137 1.09108047 0.698971.96378783 0.96614173 0.698971.96137363 0.86923172 0.698971.95424251 0.79005047 0.698971.9498777 0.72310368 0.69897

1.94591152 0.66511174 0.698971.92737036 0.61395921 0.698971.91907809 0.56820172 0.698971.91487182 0.52680904 0.698971.91009055 0.48902048 0.698971.8920946 0.45425837 0.69897

1.88081359 0.42207369 0.698971.87679498 0.39211047 0.698971.86687781 0.36408174 0.698971.86344183 0.3377528 0.698971.86332286 0.31292922 0.698971.85193068 0.28944812 0.698971.84757266 0.26717173 0.698971.84559409 0.24598243 0.698971.83250891 0.22577904 0.698971.83250891 0.20647389 0.698971.82736927 0.18799048 0.698971.81291336 0.17026172 0.698971.77815125 0.15322838 0.698971.77312792 0.13683796 0.698971.76342799 0.12104369 0.698971.74873056 0.10580373 0.698971.74818803 0.09108047 0.698971.62324929 0.07684003 0.698971.61066016 0.06305175 0.698971.58433122 0.04968778 0.698971.46089784 0.03672281 0.69897

1.41497335 0.02413368 0.698971.22530928 0.01189922 0.69897