Presentation MIDA Penang AhmadHadriHaris

8/11/2019 Presentation MIDA Penang AhmadHadriHaris

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Solar Photovoltaic:

The Green Technology Best Option

Ir. Ahmad Hadri [email protected]

Chief Technical Advisor, MBIPV ProjectMinistry of Energy, Green Technology & Water Malaysia

National Electronics Seminar, Penang

29th 30th November 2010


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Malaysia Green Technology Policy

Launched by YAB Prime Minister on 24th July 2009

Policy Statement

Green Technology shall be a driver to accelerate the national

economy and promote sustainable development.

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Vanguard 1 Satellite (1958): 1st solar PV

application

Solar Photovoltaic (PV)

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5

How does PV work?

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Source: MBIPV, 2009

1st Type 2nd Type

3rd Type

Types of PV Technology

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Daily PV Applications

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PV modules

Electrical

loads (AC)Electrical

loads (AC/DC)

Battery

InverterGrid supply/

connection

Controller

New: Mostly applied in urban areas

Does not require battery (utility grid as battery)

Inverter (critical) converts DC to AC

Excess electricity is sold to utility

Applied in remote areas / areas with no utility

supply (islands)

Requires battery (critical)

Controller regulates battery, can be connected

to DC load

Grid-connected PV Stand-alone PV

PV in Power Generation Sector

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World Solar PV Installed Capacity

(1995-2009)

9Source: REN21


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World Solar PV Market Share (2009)

10Source: REN21


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Future Prospect: PV Supply (to 2014)

11Source: Navigant Consulting Inc


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PV Experience Curve

12Source: Navigant Consulting Inc, AMAT


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Market Perspective & Price Reduction

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Malaysia kWp/Year Germany MWp/Year Japan MWp/Year USA MWp/Year

Malaysia RM/Wp/Year Germany RM/Wp/Year Japan RM/Wp/Year USA RM/Wp/Year

RM/Wp

Source: IEA-PVPS, MBIPV

MWp

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14/3014Source: DuPont, Yingli

Recent PV Module Price Trend (2009)


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Prospect for PV Grid Parity

15Source: Morgan Stanley Research

W ld T 10 PV M f t


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World Top 10 PV Manufacturers

(2006-2009)

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Rank 2006 MWp 2007 MWp 2008 MWp 2009 MWp

1

Sharp

Solar 435

Sharp

Solar 363 Q-Cells 547 First Solar 1,057

2 Q-Cells 240 Q-Cells 344 Suntech 498 Suntech 672

3 Kyocera 180 Suntech 309Sharp

Solar458

Sharp

Solar570

4 Suntech 152 Kyocera 207 First Solar 435 Yingli 525

5 Sanyo 121 First Solar 186 Kyocera 290 Q-Cells 518

6Mitsubishi

Electric111 Motech 167 Motech 254 JA Solar 509

7Schott

Solar96 Sanyo 155 Sanyo 220 Trina 399

8 Motech 92SolarWorl

d136 SunPower 215 SunPower 347

9 BP Solar 78Mitsubishi

Electric121 JA Solar 212 Kyocera 340

10 SunPower 63 SunPower 102 BP Solar 148 Motech 338

TOTAL1,568

(79%)

2,090

(68%)

3,277

(60%)

5,275

(67%)

Total

Shipments 1,985 3,073 5,492 7,913Source: Navigant Consulting Inc


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Malaysias Ambition: ETP (NKEA)

18

17%

share

ETP launched by YAB PM on 25th Oct 2010


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First Solar (Up to 1,337 MW: 2008-2011)

Q-Cells (600 MW: 2009)

Tokuyama (3,000 tonnes: 2012)

Sunpower (1,000 MW: 2011)

STX Energy

Flextronics (Q-Cells) (200 MW)

MEMC (wafer)

ETP (NKEA) Focus

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Solartif

EPP5: Increase Silicon

Production (170 ktons by 2020)

EPP6: Grow Wafer & Cell

Production (23 GW by 2020)

EPP7: Increase Module

Production


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Silicon

Ingot and

wafers

Solar cells

Solar modules

System components

Installation and

service

Equipment

providers

Product supply

PV Industry Value Chain (c-Si)

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Mining

Processing

Solar modules

System components

Installation and

service

Equipment

providers

Product supply

PV Industry Value Chain (TF)

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Equipment

providers

Product supply

Equipment

providers

Product supply

In 2008

(in RM billion)

Approx.

0.7 2.2 3.6 4.3 72 7.2

Source: Daniel Ruoss, 2009

30 2 18 20 22 38 60 80Revenues

Revenues

PV Value Chain &

Business Revenues (2008)

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Crystalline

Thin film

Equipment Industry & Supply Industry

PV Value Chain in Malaysia

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Solar Companies &

Market Capitalisation (2008)

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Source: Pegasus, Global PV Market Research Report 2007

Increasing scaleof production

Increasinginvestment

cost per MW

Installation / System integration

Silicon

Module

Wafers

Solar cells

Ingots

Few market

players

Low CAPEX

High-tech production

(incl. R&D) and size of

facility increases

High CAPEX

Many marketplayers

Understanding The PV Value Chain

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The following graph indicates investment cost trends for c-Si PV value chain.Not to be use for final economic analysis or business plan. Figures vary whether manual or automated

concept.

Solar Manufacturing: Investment

Requirements

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Profit range

(%)

Polysilicon 30-50

Wafers 20-40

Solar cells 20-30

Modules 5-15

BOS components 10-20

Installation / M&E 5-20

Trend of Profit Distribution

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Source: Daniel Ruoss

2011: PV Manufacturing Countries

Projected PV production in 2011: 18 GW (high)

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11

17

23

409

459

464

468

468

486

784

1,

278

1,

884

2,

530

9,

530

20,

530

33,

53

0

4

8,

530

65,

530

84,

530 1

05,

530

129,

530 1

57,

530

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Annual kW Cumulative kW

MBIPV Project

29

Post- MBIPV: Feed-in Tariff

+ Solar Power Plants (ETP)

200

MW

GW

SPPs

Need for Local Market Support


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Presentation MIDA Penang AhmadHadriHaris

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