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El Mercado de Reaseguros Mundial y su efecto en el Ambito Latinoamericano
Junio 3 2010, Fort Lauderdale
Aidan Pope
GC LAC
2Guy Carpenter
Primer Trimestre de 2010…el “Cisne Negro?”
3Guy Carpenter
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Xynthia Chile EQ Northridge PCS
US
Db
n
3 wks
8 mths
Ultimate17 mths
Estimativa de los Siniestros Recientes…26 Marzo 2010
Source: Company Announcements, AIR, EQECAT, ISO PCS, Guy Carpenter
4Guy Carpenter
Efecto Sobre el Mercado de Reaseguros???
En Chile….
En America Latina…
A Nivel Mundial…
La Tendencia hoy es de Enfocarse mas en la Region Afectada….Por Que?
5Guy Carpenter
Costo de Reaseguro en Propriedades:Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate-on-Line Index
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Guy Carpenter
6Guy Carpenter
Precios de Seguros Comerciales en Estados Unidos…
Note: Timelines superimposed by Guy Carpenter
7Guy Carpenter
La Vista Retroactiva:Cambios 2007 a 2009 en los capitales de reaseguro(GC Global Reinsurance Composite)(USD Billones)
GC Global Reinsurance Composite - Change in Reported Shareholders' Funds
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
US
Dbn
8Guy Carpenter
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Crecimiento en Capitales arriba de la tendencia (Russell 3000 P&C Index)
Soft market
Hard market
“Hard market softening”
Crisis
Recovery
Source: Guy Carpenter, Bloomberg data
Excess capital
9Guy Carpenter
‘Lo Desconocido’: Exposicion Neta de Aseguradoras a los PIIGS (% de Capital Libre)
Source: Citigroup
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%F
ortis
Del
ta L
yd
Gen
eral
i
SN
S
Map
fre
AX
A
ING
Alli
anz
Mun
ich
Avi
va
ZF
S
Hel
vetia
Han
n R
e
Bal
oise
RS
A
SLH
AE
GO
N
Sw
iss
Re
Sam
po
VIG
Std
Life
10Guy Carpenter
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
901
99
0
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Indice VIX (Volatilidad de los mercados)
Source: Bloomberg
S&L crisis LTCM
“Asian Contagion”Sept. 11
Enron
Capital markets closed
Back to
“normal”?
PIIGS
11Guy Carpenter
Margen en los CDS para Diferentes Entidades….
Source : Guy Carpenter, Bloomberg data
Greece
California
Allianz
12Guy Carpenter
Rendimientos en Inversiones “seguros” (Bonos de Gobierno):
5-year yields to maturity, source: Bloomberg data
0
2
4
6
8
10
121
98
51
98
61
98
71
98
81
98
91
99
01
99
11
99
21
99
31
99
41
99
51
99
61
99
71
99
81
99
92
00
02
00
12
00
22
00
32
00
42
00
52
00
62
00
72
00
82
00
92
01
0
US UK Germany Japan
13Guy Carpenter
Ratings S&P de Reaseguradores Globales
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Guy Carpenter
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
AAA AA A BBB Lower
2007 2008 2009
Note: Shows Guy Carpenter’s estimate of the lowering of Berkshire Hathaway’s rating from AAA to AA+ on 4 February 2010
14Guy Carpenter
Capital Reaseguro por Rating S & P:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
YE07 Current/YE08
AA- A+ A A- Not Rated
Source: Guy Carpenter, Standard & Poor’s
YE 07 Current
15Guy Carpenter
Perspectivas para los Reaseguradores Internacionales
Mejorar los Estados Financieros (Recesion)
Reduccion de los Precios/Primas
Mercado Generico de Rating “A”
Solvencia II (Mayor Requerimiento de Capital)
Menor Rendimiento Financiero
Accionistas que piden mayor Retorno sobre Capital Invertido
Presiones Inflacionarias
Consolidacion….
16Guy Carpenter
Los Cuatro Jinites del Apocolipsis
17Guy Carpenter
Los Cuatro Jinetes
Bajos Rendimientos de las Inversiones
Precios a la Baja
Inflacion
Deterioro de las reservas
18Guy Carpenter
Valuation dispersion could lead to additional M&A
Source: Bloomberg
0.6 x
0.7 x
0.8 x
0.9 x
1.0 x
1.1 x
1.2 x
7 % 8 % 9 % 10 % 11 % 12 % 13 % 14 % 15 % 16 % 17 %
2010E consensus RoE
Pri
ce
to
bo
ok
19Guy Carpenter
Temas para America Latina
….Los Terremotos pueden ocurrir en cualquier epoca…!
Jugadores Tradicionales versus Nuevos Entrantes
Diferenciacion (Reaseguradores y Corredores)
“Compliance” (Reaseguradores y Corredores)
Condiciones de Reaseguro mas restringidas
Nuevos Productos para un Mercado mas Sofisticado
Tamano de Siniestros Individuales
Internacionalizacion del Riesgo (Terrorismo o Cobertura Ambiental)
Capacidad para Seguro/Reaseguro de Caucion
Primeros seguros para la nueva clase adquisitiva
20Guy Carpenter
Que quieren los Reseguradores??
Dominio de la informacion
Mejor Administracion de Riesgos (ERM)
Mayor Transparencia sobre calculo de Reservas
Tasas apropriadas para el riesgo implicito (Efecto Inflacionario)
Mayor Dispercion del Riesgo
Important Disclosure Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC provides this report for general information only. The information and data contained herein is based on sources we believe reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, and it should be understood to be general insurance/reinsurance information only. Guy Carpenter &
Company, LLC makes no representations or warranties, express or implied. The information is not intended to be taken as advice with respect to any individual situation and cannot be relied upon as such. Please consult your insurance/reinsurance advisors with respect to individual coverage issues.
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