1
MAPA – CEPAL – Santiago de Chile, 02 - 06 – 2015
Taller Plan de Adaptación al Cambio Climático a escala de cuenca
Proyecto MAPA – Chile
CEPAL-Naciones Unidas
Dia 1 – Contextos Regionales y Tomada de Decisiones
BRAZILIAN RIVER BASINS: A REGIONAL CONTEXT FOR ADAPTATION TO CHANGES
E. Mario Mendiondo, L A Cuartas, M. Seluchi, G. Dolif Neto, C. Cunningan, J. A. Marengo, A. P. A. Cunha
Institutional Linkages of CEMADEN – Braz. Center of Monitoring and Early Warning of Disasters
Centro Nacional de Gerenciamento de Riscos e Desastres (CENAD/MI)
National Partners: MME/CPRM MMA/ANA MCIDADES IBGE INPE INMET DECEA UNIVERSITIES STATE CENTRES MUNICIPALITIES COMMUNITIESS
CEMADEN
Other Partners for Monitoring & Early Warning of Natural Disasters
BRAZILIAN BANKS POSTS Co. COTER (Armed Forces) MOBILE & TELECOM Co. MEC (Education Min.) CTI (Tech. Center of Information) MS (Health Min.)
International Alliances & Partners
TWO CONTRIBUTIONS FROM CEMADEN, BRAZIL TO MAPA-CEPAL, Santiago de Chile, May 2015 Elements of Comprehensive Governance and Policy for Disaster Risk Reduction based on Hyogo’s and Sendai’s Framework for Action 2005-2030
1st contribution
2nd contribution
5
Brazilian River Basins: a summary (Agencia Nacional de Águas)
VSWI - 2014 Impacto da seca sobre áreas de
atividades agropecuárias no semiárido
Junho/2014
7
Brazilian River Basins: a summary (Agencia Nacional de Águas)
Water supplies can
vary significantly
from season to
season and from
year to year in
Brazil. Most of
Brazil experiences
pronounced wet
and dry seasons,
otherwise known as
high seasonal
variability.
Changes in the IV
and SV?,
deforestation,
LUCC, global
warming?
The ongoing drought in Southeastern Brazil offers a prime example of how damaging
a major supply drop can be over the course of a year. It began in December 2013 and
February 2014, historically the wettest time of year. The region received between 40-
50% its usual amount of rain. In the eight months since, rainfall has hovered at 60
percent below normal levels.
Brazil: Water Scarcity State in year 2010-2015
Atlas Brasil, 2010
11
Water Scarcity 2013-2015 at Southeast Brazil
12
Water Scarcity 2013-2015 at Southeast Brazil
13
Sistema Cantareira
Seasonal Flow Forecast to Cantareira System Dez/2014 – Set/2015
QNat = Vazão Afluente
Sistema Cantareira = Sistema Equivalente + Paiva Castro
A.N.A.(2002)
Water Scarcity Scenarios 2010-2050 for the Middle Tiete River Basin, Sao Paulo-SP (Source: Mendiondo, 2008)
A.N
.A.(
200
2)
UGRHI 13: Tietê-Jacaré
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2010 2010 2025 2025 2050 2050
m3
/ a
no
.ha
bita
nte
Oferta = Q7,10 Oferta até Q95%
Uso consuntivo Uso não-consuntivo
Water Scarcity Scenarios 2010-2050 for the Middle Tiete River Basin, Sao Paulo-SP (Source: Mendiondo, 2008)
Some opportunities for adaptation strategies at the scale of river basin: - a complete menu on risk assessment, risk reduction and risk transfer - ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) - risk transfer mechanism (insurance) - continuous training and education towards resilience - monitoring, modeling early warnings for disasters - optimizing decision making under uncertainty - and more…
17
“MUITO OBRIGADO” & “GRACIAS”!
Prof. Dr. Eduardo Mario Mendiondo [email protected] - www.cemaden.gov.br