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Seismic Risk Assessment of Wind
Turbine Towers inZafarana Wind Farm Egypt
By
Dr. Heba Kamal
Dr. Ghada Saudi
Dr. Abdel Aziz khairy
April 2013
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Partners
1- Egyptian Partners
Housing & Building National Research Centre (HBRC)
Structures & Metallic Constructions Research Institute
Soil Mechanics& Geotechnical Engineering Institute
National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics(NRIAG)
Seismological Department
New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA)
2- American Partner
University of California, Irvine (UCI)
Civil & Environmental Engineering Department
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Introduction
Wind energy is one of the most important source of renewableenergy in Egypt.
Wind turbine technology has developed over the past years.
In considering structural loads on a wind turbine, even inseismically active regions such as Gulf of Suez , seismic loads are
regarded as less important compared to wind-inducedaerodynamic loads.
Seismic loads, however, should assume greater importance forwind turbines installed in regions where earthquakes occur.
A systematic loads analysis of turbines based on seismic hazard
deaggregation or specific turbine sites should be an integral partof the site assessment and structural integrity analysis of aturbine.
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Zafarana Wind Farm Egypt
Zafarana Wind Projectconsists of 8 projectsand will havea generating capacityof 545MW making itone of the largestonshore wind farms inthe world.
Existing wind farm at Zafarana site
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Loads acting on wind turbine
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Research Objective
The overall objective of the proposed research is the reductionin seismic risk by applying seismological, geotechnical andstructural studies to identify the expected seismic loads andpredict future seismic hazards that may affect the integrity ofthe wind towers at Zafarana site.
The current design of wind turbine towers and foundationsystems will be assessed for the future seismic risk at the Gulfof Suez zone.
The current trends in wind tower industry are expansion togreater heights and larger turbine capacity than ever before.
The new expected farm south of Zafarana farm and El-ZaytGulf will consist of a matrix of taller towers reaching from 80 m
to 100m.
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Research Tasks
1. Gathering data and documents about the turbine towersat Zafarana wind farm
2. Perform seismological studies of Zafarana and El ZaytGulf sites
3. Study the local site effects4. Perform dynamic soil structure interaction of the
foundation of wind turbine towers numerically byOpenSees, FAST, and FLAC 5.0.
5. Conduct In- Situ dynamic measurements for differenttypes of wind turbine towers in Zafarana farm
6. Numerical modeling of wind turbine towers
7. Model Comparison of Numerical and Measured Modes
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Project Schedules
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SEISMICITY AND SEISMIC HAZARD
ASSESSEMENT OF WIND TURBINE TOWERS INZAFARANA FARM, GULF OF SUEZ, EGYPT
BySeismic hazard team
Dr. Abd El-Aziz Khairy Abd El-Aal
Mr. Mohamed abdelhay
Mr. Ashraf Adely
National Research Institute of Astronomyand Geophysics
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Seismic risk versus seismic hazard
risk hazard vulnerability cost
Seismic Hazardis the probability of occurrence of a specified level ofground shaking in a specified period of time. But a more general
definition includes anything associated with an earthquake that may
affect the normal activities of people, i.e. surface faulting, ground
shaking, landslides, liquefaction, tectonic deformation, and tsunamis.
Vulnerabilityis the degree of damage caused by various levels ofloading. The vulnerability may be calculated in a probabilistic or
deterministic way for a single structure or groups of structures.
Seismic Riskis expressed in terms of economic costs, loss of lives orenvironmental damage per unit of time.
It isthe job of the geophysiciststo provide hazard assessments
(but not risk assessments.)
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Approaches to Seismic HazardAnalysis
Deterministic
The earthquake hazard for the site is a peak groundacceleration of 0.35g resulting from an earthquake
of magnitude 6.0 on the Balcones Fault at a distance of12 miles from the site.
Probabilistic
The earthquake hazard for the site is a peak groundacceleration of 0.28g with a 2 percent probability of being
exceeded in a 50-year period.
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Deterministic vs Probabilistic
Deterministic
- Consider of small number of scenarios (Mag, dist,number of standard deviation of ground motion)
- Choose the largest ground motion from cases
considered
Probabilistic
- Consider all possible scenarios (all mag, dist, andnumber of std dev)
- Compute the rate of each scenario- Combine the rates of scenarios with ground motion
above a threshold to determine probability ofexceedance
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. Steps ofprobabilistic seismichazard analysis for agiven site:
(1) definition ofearthquake sources,(2) earthquakerecurrencecharacteristics foreach source, (3)
attenuation of groundmotions withmagnitude anddistance, and (4)ground motions forspecified probability ofexceedance levels
(calculated bysumming probabilitiesover all the sources,magnitudes, anddistances
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Tectonic elements aroundEgypt
Tectonic boundaries ofthe EasternMediterranean Region.Seismicity data fromENSN and NEIC. Thefollowing Acronymsrepresent: AEG-Aegean
Sea; Al-Alexandria City;CY-Cyprus; ERA-Eratosthenes Seamount;FL-Florence; IB-IonianBasin; MR-Mediterranean Ridge;LEV-Levantine Basin;LF-Levant Fault; ND-Nile Delta. Smalldiamond indicates thelocation of Cairo andBeni Suef cities. AbuZenima is indicated bythe heavy red diamond.
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Recent seismicity
of Egypt from1900-2012(unifiedcatalogue Mw)
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Recent Seismicity
Seismicity of the northern Red Sea region from 1900 to 2010. redrectangular is the city of Abu Zenima
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The seismicty from 1900 to 2012 inand around the wind farm Zafaran, redsea
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Map shows therecordedearthquakesused tocalculate,seismotectonicmodel andseismic hazardwithin a circleof radius 350
km from thefarm site
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seismtectonicmodel usedto calculate
seismichazardestimationfor the farm
site
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Zone M max M min BETA b LAMBDA Averg. Depth
Mmax
obs.
1 6.45 +- 0.38 3 2.29 +- 0.17 1.00 +- 0.0 6.919 +- 1.299 14.5 6.2
2 6.55 +- 0.29 3 2.09+-0.32 0.91+-0.14 3.051 +- 0.764 15.17 6.3
3 5.55 +- 1.90 3 2.66 +- 0.45 1.16 +- 0.19 1.430 +- 0.405 14.72 5.3
4 5.15 +- 0.44 3 1.15 +- 0.00 0.60+-0.25 0.605 +- 0.218 14.42 4.9
5 6.25 +- 0.38 3 2.50 +- 0.31 1.09 +- 0.14 2.064 +- 0.565 13.03 6
6 5.3 3 1.55 +- 0.71 0.67 +- 0.31 0.383 +- 0.146 12.52 5.3
7 3.95 +- 0.88 3 3.42 +- 0.00 1.48 +- 0.00 0.337 +- 0.173 14.82 3.7
8 4.40 +- 00 3 3.45 +- 0.00 1.50 +- 0.00 11.28 4.4
9 6.75 +- 0.22 3 1.90 +- 0.13 0.82 +- 0.05 5.569 +- 1.047 15.63 6.5
10 5.25 +- 0.23 3 1.36 +- 0.26 0.59 +- 0.11 2.753 +- 0.641 23.15 5
11 5.65 3 1.15 +- 0.00 0.50 +- 0.00 5.65 +- 2.28 33.27 5.4
12 5.55 +- 0.24 3 1.15 +- 0.00 0.50 +- 0.00 1.294 +- 0.319 25.97 5.313 6.15 +- 0.30 3 1.15 +- 0.00 0.50 +- 0.00 6.600 +- 1.786 27.27 5.9
14 5.65 +- 0.50 3 1.15 +- 0.00 0.50 +- 0.00 1.917 +- 0.605 29.33 5.4
15 6.45 +- 0.26 3 1.16 +- 0.00 0.50 +- 0.00 1.611 +- 0.353 25.25 6.2
16 5.65 +- 3.02 3 1.15 +- 0.00 0.50 +- 0.00 0.244 +- 0.131 33 5.4
17 5.35 +- 0.36 3 1.18 +- 0.49 0.51 +- 0.21 0.508 +- 0.182 18.07 5.1
23 6.55 +- 0.68 3 1.25 +- 0.27 0.54 +- 0.12 1.060 +- 0.264 22.64 6.3
24 6.35 +- 0.35 3 1.93 +- 0.26 0.84 +- 0.11 1.561 +- 0.384 26.14 6.125 3.95 +- 0.65 3 3.45 +- 0.00 1.50 +- 0.00 0.472 +- 0.226 12.36 3.7
26 6.35 3 1.44 +- 0.43 0.62 +- 0.19 0.569 +- 0.212 26.125 6.1
35 6.35 3 1.30 +- 0.45 0.56 +- 0.19 0.717 +- 0.275 17.59 6.1
36 5.35 3 3.39 +- 0.00 1.47 +- 0.00 2.766 +- 0.672 18.48 5.1
37 5.35 +- 0.45 3 3.45 +- 0.00 1.50 +- 0.00 7.752 +- 1.614 20.76 5.1
38 6.05 +- 00 3 3.45 +- 0.00 1.50 +- 0.00 4.630 +- 0.961 12.08 5.8
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Seismic hazard results at farm site
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Seismic hazard results atfarm site
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Seismichazard
results atfarm sitefor returnperiod 100
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Seismichazard
results atfarm sitereturnperiod 475
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The obtained seismic hazardresults for the wind farm site
acceleration
(gal)
100 yr return
period475 yr return period
PGA 46.024 92.131
0.1 134 245.35
0.2 98.327 206.44
0.3 73.289 159.47
1 26.395 55.858
2 13.648 27.698
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Ground motion parameters:
1- Source parameters.
2- Path parameters.
3- Site parameters.
Stochastic method
1-Peak ground acceleration.2- Peak ground velocity.3- Peak ground displacement
4- Response spectrum
Simulation of the biggest effectedearthquakes from different seismicsources to the wind farm site
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Comparison between ground motionamplification at bedrock site and soilsite
Simulation of time history of the 1995
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Simulation of time history of the 1995earthquake Mw 7.2 at the wind farm sitehypocentral distance 225 km from the windfarm site
Simulation of time history of the 1992
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Simulation of time history of the 1992earthquake Mw 6 at the wind farm sitehypocentral distance 146 km from wind farmsite
Simulation of time history of 1983
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Simulation of time history of 1983earthquake Mw 5.3 at wind farm sitehypocentral distance 98.5 km from windfarm site
Simulation of time history of the 1969
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Simulation of time history of the 1969earthquake Mw 6.7 at the wind farm sitehypocentral distance 228 km from the windfarm site
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SUMMARY
1- In the current study, I presented and discussed the probabilistic
seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and simulation technique at the
wind farm site, Zafarana, Egypt that is based on spectral parameters.
2-The PSHA build upon extensive research and database compilation
3-the seismic source model used, the ground motion adopted and theuse of the spectral parameters for the first time at farm site, will permit
site-specific uniform hazard spectra to be available, and hence allow
improved earthquake-resistant design
4-The hazard is calculated at the Bedrock condition
5- We used the 10% and 20% chance of exceedence in 50 years,which is corresponding to about 475 and 100 years return period.
6- the simulation techinque is used to obtain time history at the wind
farm site for the biggest effective earthquakes from different seismic
sources.
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GROUND RESPONSE ANALYSIS OF
ZAFARANA WIND FARM, GULF OF SUEZ,
EGYPT
By
Dr. Heba Kamal
Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering
Institute, Housing and Building National ResearchCenter (HBRC)
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Introduction
Seismic micro hazard zonation is the first step towards a seismic
risk analysis and mitigation strategy.
Essential here is to obtain a proper understanding of the local
subsurface conditions and to evaluate ground shaking effects.
In this study, the Zafarana Wind Farm , will be evaluated with
respect to site amplification and site period.
Boreholes from previous investigations will be complied to
determine the variation of the soil profile as well as the
characteristics of the soil layers within the study site.
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Introduction
One dimensional ground response study will be done using
program SHAKE2000 for equivalent linear analysis and program
DEEPSOIL for non linear analysis.
The synthetic and real ground motion generated and dynamicsoil properties will be used for one dimensional ground analysis
to study the site response of soil columns.
The amplification of soil columns, peak horizontal acceleration
variations and spectral acceleration both at rock level and groundsurface will be studied and presented.
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RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
For seismic response modelling in the topic of seismicmicro hazard assessments the information needed ingeneral as follows:
Detailed geotechnical data (shear wave velocity, unit
weight, shear modulus and damping and modulusreduction curve information )
Detailed geology data available near the site (boreholelog information With defined material and formations)
Digital seismic accelerograms (from real earthquake and
synthetic one) Depth to bedrock level
Ground water level
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Earthquake Scenarios
Three Earthquake Scenarios was used in thisstudy as follow:
Date
Day M. Yr.
Origin Time
H Mn Sec
Location
Lat. Long.
Depth
(km)M
S
31 03 1969 07 15 54.4 27.60 33.90 20 6.9
12 10 1992 13 09 55.5 29.77 31.14 21 5.3
22 11 1995 04 15 11.9 28.82 34.79 10 7.3
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Geotechnical and Geological
Features
Geological FeaturesThe geological features indicate that the Zafarana
project area consists of coastal and wadi deposits .
There are no intensive faults at Zafarana area.However, some faults, taking the NW-SE trend,
appear at the area between Quseir and Ras Ghareb
and also between Marsa Alam and Quseir.
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The Geological Map of Red Sea
Governorate
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Geotechnical and Geological
Features
Geotechnical Features Based on the results of the previous site investigation
and laboratory testing of 595 boring holes
subsurface formation consists, in general, of fivelayers described as follows:
Wadi Deposit
Clay
Clay Stone
Sand
Sand Stone
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Wadi Deposit
Reddish brown to yellowish brown wadi eposit
that consist of gravel, sand, silt, clay and iron
oxides.
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Clay layer
Hard greyish brown clay with interbedded band of
clay stone and sand stone pieces and traces of
iron oxides
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Clay Stone layer
Reddish to yellowish bown very weak to medium
hard sandy claystone interbedded by thin to thick
band of sand or sand stone
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Sand Layer
Yellow to reddish brown sand with different
precent of silt, could be cemented or clayey the
layer is interbedded with sandstone or clay stone
pieces , calcareous and with traces of iron oxides
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Sand Stone Layer
Yellow to reddish brown fine to medium grained
sands interbedded by thin to thick band of clay
stone . It is sained by iron oxides
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Site Response Analysis forZafarana 3
The site investigation consists of 46 boringholes the analysis was done on 3representative boring holes as following:
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
a max with depth
Darendeli,
2001.Shedwan, 1969
a max with depth
Darendeli,2001.Dahshor, 1992
a max with depth
Darendeli, 2001.Al-
Akaba, 1995
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0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Spectral Acceleration
with
time,Darendeli,2001.S
hedwan, 1969
Spectral Acceleration
with
time,Darendeli,2001.D
ahshor, 1995
Spectral Acceleration
withtime,Darendeli,2001.A
l-Akaba, 1995
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
a max with depth
Darendeli,
2001.Shedwan, 1969
a max with depth
Darendeli,
2001.Dahshor, 1992
a max with depth
Darendeli, 2001.Al-
Akaba, 1995
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0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Spectral Acceleration
with
time,Darendeli,2001.S
hedwan, 1969
Spectral Acceleration
with
time,Darendeli,2001.D
ahshor, 1995
Spectral Acceleration
withtime,Darendeli,2001.A
l-Akaba, 1995
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 0.1 0.2 0.3
a max with depth
Darendeli,
2001.Shedwan, 1969
a max with depth
Darendeli,
2001.Dahshor, 1992
a max with depth
Darendeli, 2001.Al-
Akaba, 1995
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0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Spectral Acceleration
with
time,Darendeli,2001.S
hedwan, 1969
Spectral Acceleration
with
time,Darendeli,2001.D
ahshor, 1995
Spectral Acceleration
withtime,Darendeli,2001.A
l-Akaba, 1995
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
a max with depth
Darendeli,
2001.Shedwan, 1969
a max with depth
Darendeli,
2001.Dahshor, 1992
a max with depth
Darendeli, 2001.Al-
Akaba, 1995
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0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Spectral Acceleration
with
time,Darendeli,2001.S
hedwan, 1969
Spectral Acceleration
with
time,Darendeli,2001.D
ahshor, 1992
Spectral Acceleration
withtime,Darendeli,2001.A
l-Akaba, 1995
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
a max with depth
Darendeli,
2001.Shedwan, 1969
a max with depth
Darendeli,
2001.Dahshor, 1992
a max with depth
Darendeli, 2001.Al-
Akaba, 1995
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0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Spectral Acceleration
with
time,Darendeli,2001.S
hedwan, 1969
Spectral Acceleration
with
time,Darendeli,2001.D
ahshor, 1995
Spectral Acceleration
withtime,Darendeli,2001.A
l-Akaba, 1995
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
a max with depth
Darendeli,
2001.Shedwan, 1969a max with depth
Darendeli,
2001.Dahshor, 1992
a max with depth
Darendeli, 2001.Al-
Akaba, 1995
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0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Spectral Acceleration
with
time,Darendeli,2001.S
hedwan, 1969
Spectral Acceleration
with
time,Darendeli,2001.D
ahshor, 1995
Spectral Acceleration
withtime,Darendeli,2001.A
l-Akaba, 1995
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2
a max with depth
Darendeli,
2001.Shedwan, 1969
a max with depth
Darendeli,
2001.Dahshor, 1992
a max with depth
Darendeli, 2001.Al-
Akaba, 1995
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0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.01 0.1 1 10 100
Spectral Acceleration
with
time,Darendeli,2001.S
hedwan, 1969
Spectral Acceleration
with
time,Darendeli,2001.D
ahshor, 1992
Spectral Acceleration
withtime,Darendeli,2001.A
l-Akaba, 1995
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SUMMARY
1- In the current study, I presented and discussed the ground response
analysis using equivalent linear method by SHAHE2000.
2- The amax with depth and response spectrum at surface were
introduced for the three earthquakes scenarios .
3- The earthquake waves is amplified up to 0.3g if the upper layers are
wadi deposit and clay layer.
4- the earthquake waves is deamplified if the upper layers are
claystone or sand stone.
NUMERICAL MODELLING OF VESTAS
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WIND TURBINE TOWER, ZAFARANA WIND
FARM
ByDr. Ghada Saudi
Structure and Metallic Engineering Institute,
Housing and Building National Research Center(HBRC)
Seismic Risk Assessment of Wind
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Turbine Towers
Structure Studies
Ambient Vibration Testing
InputLinear
SystemOutput
ambient excitation
(wind, micro-tremors, etc)
acceleration response
measurement
Natural frequencies
Mode shapes
Modal damping ratios
Experimental modal analysis & Dynamic Characteristics
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Various mode shapes as obtained from the theoretical
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pmodel
Mode1
1.204 Hz
Mode2
1.204 Hz
Mode3
6.509 Hz
Mode4
6.509 Hz
Mode5
17.218 Hz
Mode6
17.218 Hz
Mode7
19.077 Hz
Theoretical
modal
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Thank You