EXPOBOLSA 2011: Ing Fondos
43
Oportunidades de inversión en los Mercados Integrados de Latinoamérica Rafael Buckley Gerente General ING Fondos SAF Noviembre, 2011
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EXPOBOLSA 2011: Ing Fondos
Transcript of EXPOBOLSA 2011: Ing Fondos
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Oportunidades de inversión en los
Mercados Integrados de Latinoamérica
Rafael Buckley
Gerente General
ING Fondos SAF
Noviembre, 2011
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Bajan precios de Inmuebles
Comienza etapa de Recesión.
Bajan precios de Acciones
Inflación al máximo. Tasas de interés al máximo
Fase final de la Recesión.
Se estabilizan precios de
materias primas
Inflación cae. Tasas de interés caen.
Comienza etapa de Crecimiento
Suben precios de Acciones
Inflación al mínimo Tasas de interés al mínimo
Suben precios de Inmuebles
Suben precios de Acciones
Comienza Etapa de Crecimiento. Inflación al mínimo. Tasas de interés al mínimo.
Suben precios de materias primas
Fase final de Crecimiento.
Inflación sube
FASE DE RECESION: Disminuye demanda y compañías reducen costos (desempleo aumenta). Consumo disminuye y precios bajan (deflación), lo que presiona las tasas de interés a la baja. Esto termina finalmente estimulando la demanda y prepara a la economía para entrar a una nueva etapa de expansión.
FASE DE CRECIMIENTO: Crecen producción y demanda. Empleo se expande. Se incrementa el Consumo y con ello el riesgo de inflación. Compañías e individuos se endeudan, lo que presiona las tasas de interés al alza. Conforme suben los precios, la demanda se debilita y la actividad económica disminuye.
Los Mercados bursátiles son reflejo de las economías? Normalmente se anticipan a los ciclos económicos
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GDP (%YoY) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mundo 3.91% 1.50% -2.44% 3.92% 2.74% 2.69% United States 1.90% -0.30% -3.50% 3.00% 1.80% 2.20% 2.50% Euro area 3.00% 0.40% -4.20% 1.80% 1.60% 0.70% 1.50% China 14.20% 9.60% 9.20% 10.40% 9.20% 8.50% 8.20%
BRICS 10.72% 7.59% 4.67% 8.59% 6.99% 6.58% 6.59% Chile 4.81% 3.32% -1.51% 5.09% 6.30% 4.50% 5.00% Colombia 6.90% 4.68% 1.43% 4.30% 5.00% 5.00% 4.50% Perú 8.87% 10.08% 1.06% 8.79% 6.40% 5.25% 5.75%
CPI (%YoY) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mundo 2.95% 4.48% 1.12% 2.56% 3.35% 2.54% United States 2.87% 3.85% -0.35% 1.63% 3.20% 2.15% 2.10% Euro area 2.13% 3.28% 0.29% 1.58% 2.60% 1.80% 1.80%
China 4.77% 5.90% -0.68% 3.33% 5.45% 3.50% 4.50% BRICS 5.62% 7.80% 3.68% 5.38% 6.11% 4.52% 4.90% Chile 4.39% 8.73% 1.57% 1.43% 3.75% 3.00% n.a. Colombia 5.54% 6.99% 4.23% 2.27% 3.30% 3.50% 3.50% Perú 1.78% 5.78% 2.98% 1.53% 3.55% 2.80% 2.50%
Dónde estamos… dónde vamos? Algunos Indicadores
CB Rate (%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mundo United States 4.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% Euro area 4.00% 2.50% 1.00% 1.00% 1.25% 1.25% China 7.47% 5.31% 5.31% 5.81% 6.50% 6.50%
BRICS 8.50% 8.31% 6.12% 6.87% 7.57% 7.56% Chile 6.00% 8.25% 0.50% 3.25% 5.25% 5.25% Colombia 8.80% 10.00% 4.00% 3.00% 4.50% 5.00% Perú 5.00% 6.50% 1.25% 3.00% 4.25% 4.75%
Exchange Rates (Crny) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mundo USDEUR
1.46 1.40 1.43 1.34 1.35 1.40 1.38 USDEUR
USDCNY 7.30 6.83 6.83 6.61 6.31 6.07 5.85 BRICS USDCLP 498 638 507 468 500 480 470 USDCOP 2,017 2,249 2,044 1,908 1,875 1,765 1,735 USDPEN 3.00 3.13 2.89 2.81 2.72 2.65 2.63
Fuente: Bloomberg
Fuente: Bloomberg
Fuente: Bloomberg
Fuente: Bloomberg
MARICRUZ
Resaltado
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Sin duda el mundo cambió durante la última década Y con él, el orígen de las oportunidades…
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Fiscal Balance as % of GDP
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Gross Debtas % of GDP
Gobiernos actuaron sincronizadamente aplicando estímulos fiscales que terminaron generando serios desbalances fiscales en DM
Fuente: IMF
Fuente: IMF
… y altos niveles de deuda
• Economías desarrolladas: Reactivación del consumo limitada por escaso dinamismo del mercado laboral y del consumo (por un continuo desapalancamiento de las familias).
• Economías Emergentes: A diferencia de los países desarrollados han crecido fuertemente y por tanto las presiones inflacionarias.
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Mercados de Deuda Emergentes atractivos Los flujos así lo evidencian
Updrades a Emergentes (Entre ellos Perú y Colombia)
Downgrades a Desarrollados
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
MILA 11.65%
BRIC 84.18%
MILA 69.35%
MILA 46.43%
MILA 71.44%
BRIC 56.12%
US -38.49%
Latam 98.14%
MILA 47.26%
US -0.35%
BRIC 7.13%
MILA 70.73%
Latam 34.77%
Latam 44.92%
BRIC 52.87%
Latam 46.89%
G7 -40.78%
MILA 95.34%
EM 16.36%
G7 -4.00%
Latam 6.65%
Latam 67.06%
EM 22.45%
BRIC 39.81%
Latam 39.34%
EM 36.48%
World -42.08%
BRIC 88.79%
Asia 14.32%
World -4.90%
EM -0.86%
EM 51.59%
Europe 17.85%
EM 30.31%
EURO 31.65%
MILA 25.29%
Asia -43.23%
EM 74.5%
US 12.78%
Europe -7.94%
US -3.49%
EURO 38.4%
EURO 16.8%
Asia 21.04%
Europe 30.22%
EURO 18.68%
MILA -43.48%
Asia 34.46%
Latam 12.07%
EURO -10.55%
EURO -4.34%
Asia 38.07%
Asia 16.31%
World 7.56%
EM 29.18%
Asia 12.28%
Europe -48.2%
Europe 31.24%
G7 10.36%
MILA -11.07%
Europe -4.35%
Europe 34.79%
BRIC 13.63%
G7 7.17%
World 17.95%
Europe 10.96%
EURO -48.55%
World 26.98%
World 9.55%
Asia -11.57%
World -4.62%
World 30.81%
World 12.84%
Europe 6.54%
G7 15.72%
World 7.09%
Latam -52.78%
EURO 26.44%
BRIC 7.25%
EM -13.53%
G7 -5.03%
G7 29.86%
G7 11.54%
EURO 5.51%
Asia 14.51%
G7 5.51%
EM -54.48%
G7 24.28%
Europe 1.02%
Latam -15.20%
Asia -9.20%
US 26.38%
US 8.99%
US 3.00%
US 13.62%
US 3.53%
BRIC -60.27%
US 23.45%
EURO -8.60%
BRIC -16.31%
Y los Mercados bursátiles también Pero estos reaccionan a las expectativas futuras, y ante la incertidumbre…
Fuente: Bloomberg / MSCI / S&P
* US: S&P 500 * MILA: 1/3 ISBVL 1/3 COLCAP 1/3 IPSA * RESTO: Indices MSCI
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1ro en número de emisores 2do en Capitalización Bursátil 3ro en volúmen negociado
Capitalización Bursátil Número de Emisores
717 352
1,337
Fuente: BVL
Es en este contexto que nace MILA En bloque mucho mejor !!!
• Promueve un mayor nivel de integración entre las tres economías, movilizando inversión hacia la región y dotando de liquidez a los mercados
• Aumenta el acceso a financiamiento de las empresas • Promueve la creación de vehículos de inversión (dando
más alternativas a los inversionistas) • Ofrece al inversionista un mercado de mayor
profundidad, liquidez, y diversificación, atributos que contribuyen a disminuir el riesgo de un portafolio de inversiones
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MILA vs Bolsas Mundiales Comparado con MSCI World Index
Fuente: Bloomberg / MSCI / S&P
PER: x 30 veces
COL: x 23 veces
CHI: x 7 veces
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MILA vs Bolsas Mundiales Multiplos Relativos
Fuente: Bloomberg / MSCI / S&P
PER: 11.81
COL: 17.82
CHI: 17.60
Fuente: Scotia Bolsa
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World G7
S&P 500 Europe
EURO Asia
EM
BRIC
Latam
MILA
0%
5%
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35%
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10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
REN
DIM
IEN
TO
RIESGO
Retornos Ajustados por riesgo Jul-2002 - Oct-2011
Con atributos en bloque mucho más potentes Un mercado mucho más eficiente
An. ROR St.Dev. Sharpe
MILA 1367.81% 24.87% 1.23 Latam 533.24% 28.41% 0.67 BRIC 403.73% 28.35% 0.57 EM 237.91% 24.61% 0.45 Asia 75.10% 18.44% 0.18 World 46.57% 17.06% 0.07 Europe 47.87% 20.98% 0.06 G7 40.36% 16.48% 0.04 S&P 500 37.48% 15.93% 0.03 EURO 35.58% 24.45% 0.01
Fuente: Bloomberg / MSCI / S&P
Fuente: Bloomberg / MSCI / S&P
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0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Efecto de MILA en Portafolio de acciones MD y Global Jul-2002 - Nov-2011
Retorno PMD
Retorno PMG
SD PMG
SD PMD
El de menos correlación con los demás índices mundiales Atributo fundamental en un portafolio
World G7 S&P 500 Europe EURO Asia EM BRIC Latam MILA World 1 1.00 0.97 0.97 0.95 0.87 0.90 0.83 0.85 0.76
G7 1 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.87 0.88 0.82 0.84 0.75 S&P 500 1 0.91 0.90 0.79 0.82 0.75 0.79 0.69 Europe 1 0.99 0.83 0.88 0.82 0.83 0.77 EURO 1 0.79 0.85 0.79 0.80 0.72 Asia 1 0.92 0.87 0.80 0.76 EM 1 0.96 0.92 0.85
BRIC 1 0.94 0.82 Latam 1 0.82 MILA 1
Retorno Adicional: • 0% vs 100%: 24.5% an. •Avg.c/10% : 2.5% an.
Riesgo Adicional: • 0% vs 100%: 6.4% an. •Avg.c/10% : 0.4% an.
Retorno Adicional: • 0% vs 100%: 29.3% an. •Avg.c/10% : 2.9% an.
Riesgo Adicional: • 0% vs 100%: 6.4% an. •Avg.c/10% : 0.6% an.
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Incluso con baja correlación entre quienes lo componen Lo que lo hace más atractivo
Correlation 0.62 Correlation 0.57
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… producto en parte de la alta diversificación que provee Diversificación en sectores que se complementan muy bien
La bolsa de Colombia y Perú están concentradas en Petróleo y Minería respectivamente, mientras que la bolsa de Chile tiene mucho más profundidad en otros sectores como el forestal, eléctrico y retail entre otros.
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La combinación de la bolsa Peruana, Colombiana y Chilena nos permite ampliar la frontera eficiente de inversión, ya que si observamos el comportamiento histórico del portafolio equiponderado en los principales índices de los tres países, obtenemos una mejor relación riesgo/retorno que una inversión en un solo país.
Lo que lo hace un bloque muy eficiente Por retornos ajustados por riesgo
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COLCAP GXG DIF. Ecopetrol SA 20.69% 13.27% -7.42% Bancolombia SA 12.92% 13.61% 0.69% Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana SA 10.57% 5.86% -4.71% Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp 8.81% 8.45% -0.36% Grupo Nutresa SA 7.59% 5.08% -2.52% Interconección Electictrica SA ESP 6.91% 4.72% -2.19% Inversiones Argos SA 6.48% 4.66% -1.82% Cementos Argos SA 5.67% 4.82% -0.85% Almacenes Éxito SA 4.97% 4.86% -0.11% Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores 4.21% 6.79% 2.58% Corp. Financiera Colombiana 3.77% 4.94% 1.17% Isagen SA 2.60% 4.73% 2.13% Banco Davivienda SA 1.70% -1.70% Avianca TACA Holding SA 0.80% -0.80% Fabricato SA 0.62% 2.19% 1.56% Canacol Energy Ltd 0.53% -0.53% Bolsa de Valores de Colombia 0.45% 2.83% 2.38% Empresa de Telecomunic 0.34% 1.10% 0.77% Tableros y Maderas de Caldas SA 0.28% 1.11% 0.83% Enka de Colobia SA 0.10% -0.10% Sociedad de Inversiones 4.36% 4.36% Cia Colombiana de Inversiones 4.22% 4.22% Interbolsa SA 1.04% 1.04% Helm Bank SA 0.74% 0.74%
Mercado Bursátil Colombiano Distribución COLCAP vs ETF
Fuente: Bloomberg
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Fuente: Bloomberg
Mercado Bursátil Chileno Distribución IPSA vs ETF
IPSA ECH DIF. Empresas COPEC SA 10.05% 10.40% 0.35% Empresa Nacional de Electricidad SA 7.30% 7.81% 0.51% LAN Airlines SA 7.26% 4.52% -2.74% Enersis SA 6.91% 7.87% 0.96% Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA 6.78% 8.59% 1.80% Cencosud SA 6.52% 8.83% 2.31% CAP SA 5.16% 4.43% -0.73% Empresas CMPC SA 5.07% 6.82% 1.76% SACI Falabella 4.59% 5.11% 0.52% Banco Santander Chile 4.57% 4.47% -0.10% Banco de Crédito e Inversiones 3.74% 3.31% -0.44% Colbun SA 3.22% 3.10% -0.12% Banco de Chile 3.02% -3.02% ENTEL Chile SA 2.88% 3.52% 0.64% Antarchile SA 2.64% -2.64% Sociedad Matriz Banco de Chile 1.87% -1.87% AES Gener SA 1.74% 2.29% 0.54% Molibdenos y Metales SA 1.69% -1.69% Cia Cerevecerías Unidas 1.63% 2.18% 0.55% Embotelladora Andina SA 1.21% -1.21% Viña Concha y Toro 1.17% 1.71% 0.54% Parque Arauco SA 1.13% 1.38% 0.25% Sonda SA 1.07% 1.25% 0.17% Corpbanca 0.95% 2.31% 1.36%
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ISBVL EPU DIF. Volcan Cia Minera SAA 15.53% 4.34% -11.19% Minsur SA 8.44% 3.68% -4.76% Sociedad Minera Cerro Verde 7.64% 3.80% -3.84% Casa Grande SAA 7.19% 1.36% -5.83% Ferreyros SA 6.57% 2.34% -4.24% Cia de Minas Buenaventura 6.39% 18.81% 12.41% Maple Energy PLC 6.04% 1.57% -4.47% Refinería La Pampilla 5.85% 1.62% -4.23% Intergroup Financial Services 5.84% 3.81% -2.03% BBVA Banco Continental 5.66% 2.48% -3.18% Graña y Montero SA 5.62% 4.32% -1.30% Alicorp SA 5.27% 5.64% 0.37% Credicorp Ltd 4.84% 15.75% 10.91% Corp Aceros Arequipa 4.62% 1.46% -3.16% Cia Minera Milpo SAA 4.50% 3.12% -1.38% Souther Copper Corp. 10.00% 10.00% Hochschild Mining PLC 4.28% 4.28% Cementos Pacasmayo SAA 1.98% 1.98% Luz del Sur SAA 1.98% 1.98% Edegel SAA 1.79% 1.79% Copeinca ASA 1.47% 1.47% Cementos Lima SAA 1.16% 1.16% Empresa Siderurgica de 0.97% 0.97% Sociedad Minera El Brocal 0.78% 0.78%
Mercado Bursátil Peruano Distribución ISBVL vs ETF
Fuente: Bloomberg
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Index Total Return Difference Annual Return St. Deviation COLCAP Index (COP) 1065.14% -314.19% 30.09% 24.32% IPSA Index (CLP) 317.28% -1062.04% 16.54% 16.72% ISBVL Index (PEN) 1379.32% 33.46% 35.42%
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Indices MILA (LC) Jul-2002 - Nov-2011
COLCAP
IPSA
ISBVL
Performance de los índices bursátiles - MILA En Moneda Local
Fuente: Bloomberg
De acuerdo al “National Bureau of Economic Research“ la última recesión técnicamente empezó
en Dic/07 y terminó 1 ½ años después (Jun/09)
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Index Total Return Difference Annual Return St. Deviation COLCAP Index (COP) 1065.14% -314.19% 30.09% 24.32% IPSA Index (CLP) 317.28% -1062.04% 16.54% 16.72% ISBVL Index (PEN) 1379.32% 33.46% 35.42%
“Time in the Market… Not Market Timming”
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Indices MILA (LC) Jul-2002 - Nov-2011
COLCAP
IPSA
ISBVL
Fuente: Bloomberg
De acuerdo al “National Bureau of Economic Research“ la última recesión técnicamente empezó
en Dic/07 y terminó 1 ½ años después (Jun/09)
Los Mercados suelen anticiparse
PER 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 PBI 8.91% 9.80% 0.86% 8.79% 6.24% ISBVL 31.03% -59.73% 91.89% 42.86% -14.98%
COL 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 PBI 6.90% 3.55% 1.45% 4.29% 4.87% COLCAP 0.04% -19.90% 60.55% 33.42% -13.25%
CHI 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 PBI 4.58% 3.66% -1.68% 5.19% 6.55% IPSA 13.31% -22.13% 50.71% 37.59% -11.97%
Ento
nce
s?
Performance de los índices bursátiles - MILA En Moneda Local
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COLCAP Index 1 Month 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Maximum Return 17.81% 132.34% 553.93% 687.28% Ene-04 Mar-06 Mar-06 Jul-07 Minimum Return -18.98% -26.96% -24.35% 50.48% Oct-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 Abr-11
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COLCAP Index (LC) Jul-2002 - Nov-2011
COLCAP
IPSA
ISBVL
Por qué no hacer Market Timming? Mercado Colombiano
Max. : 1,942.37 (04-Nov-2010)
+182.88% (2.1 años)
11-Nov-11. : 1,582.14
+130.42% (3.1 años)
-18.55% (1.1 años)
-38.77% (0.9 años)
Max. : 1,221.33 (23-Nov-2007)
Min. : 686.74 (27-Oct-2008)
Fuente: Bloomberg
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Securities 11-Nov-11 Total Return Annual Return YTD COLCAP Index 1,582.14 1065.14% 30.09% -13.25% COP / USD 1,911.00 -27.30% -3.36% 0.17%
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COLCAP Index (LC) vs COP Jul-2002 - Nov-2011
COLCAP
COLCAP (Exp. en USD)
COP
Efecto del tipo de cambio COP
Fuente: Bloomberg
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IPSA Index 1 Month 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Maximum Return 16.09% 63.22% 134.00% 260.06% May-09 Jun-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Minimum Return -9.58% -27.86% 13.61% 59.98% Oct-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Feb-09
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IPSA Index (LC) Jul-2002 - Nov-2011
COLCAP
IPSA
ISBVL
-39.89% (1.3 años)
Max. : 3,499.50 (03-Jul-2007)
Min. : 2,101.10 (10-Oct-2008)
Max. : 5,040.97 (05-Ene-2011)
+139.92% (2.3 años)
11-Nov-11. : 4,337.83
+106.46% (3.1 años)
-13.95% (0.9 años)
Fuente: Bloomberg
Por qué no hacer Market Timming? Mercado Chileno
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Securities 11-Nov-11 Total Return Annual Return YTD IPSA Index 4,337.83 317.28% 16.54% -11.97% CLP / USD 497.97 -29.56% -3.68% 6.40%
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IPSA Index (LC) vs CLP Jul-2002 - Nov-2011
IPSA
IPSA (Exp. en USD)
CLP
Fuente: Bloomberg
Efecto del tipo de cambio CLP
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ISBVL Index 1 Month 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years Maximum Return 36.26% 191.98% 786.15% 2156.73% May-09 Mar-07 Jul-07 Jul-07 Minimum Return -39.67% -69.60% -48.39% 37.79% Oct-08 Oct-08 Jul-10 Nov-11
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ISBVL Index (LC) Jul-2002 - Nov-2011
COLCAP
IPSA
ISBVL
-77.79% (1.3 años)
Max. : 42,139.76 (24-Jul-2007)
Min. : 9,360.27 (27-Oct-2008)
Max. : 32,607.20 (07-Feb-2011)
+248.36% (2.3 años)
11-Nov-11. : 27,248.25
+191.11% (3.1 años)
-16.43% (0.8 años)
Fuente: Bloomberg
Por qué no hacer Market Timming? Mercado Peruano
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Securities 11-Nov-11 Total Return Annual Return YTD ISBVL Index 27,248.25 1379.32% 33.46% -14.98% PEN / USD 2.71 -24.30% -2.94% -3.57%
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ISBVL Index (LC) vs PEN Jul-2002 - Nov-2011
ISBVL
ISBVL (Exp. en USD)
PEN
Fuente: Bloomberg
Efecto del tipo de cambio PEN
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Efecto del tipo de cambio PEN el menos volatil
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Back Testing - MILA Performance Attribution
COLCAP ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC TOTAL
2002 0.04% 7.46% 9.29% 3.45% 7.48% 30.64%
2003 -0.34% -2.32% 0.21% 6.53% 15.73% 1.05% 2.27% -1.84% 0.79% 5.62% 3.77% 5.44% 42.12%
2004 17.81% 11.15% 10.19% 1.15% -11.42% 0.93% -1.89% 1.89% 17.08% 5.23% 15.55% 0.18% 85.98%
2005 2.00% 15.03% -11.46% 6.15% -3.35% 15.85% 11.46% 7.72% 2.03% 3.67% 17.55% 11.77% 106.03%
2006 14.23% 2.07% 0.48% -0.14% -18.68% -15.93% 15.52% 5.18% -3.14% 8.89% -1.78% 9.26% 9.98%
2007 -3.42% -6.15% 3.56% -0.65% -3.84% 5.47% 6.38% -2.84% -3.12% 3.32% 5.76% -3.34% 0.04%
2008 -11.81% -2.39% -2.80% 10.87% 3.43% -7.30% -0.05% 5.01% -1.89% -18.98% 1.82% 6.01% -19.90%
2009 2.17% -2.03% 2.59% 6.60% 10.69% 6.90% 4.85% 4.57% 9.91% -5.40% 4.84% 3.70% 60.55%
2010 -0.23% 2.01% 3.56% 1.85% -1.55% 1.54% 7.15% 5.89% 6.33% 7.48% -6.41% 2.46% 33.42%
2011 -3.36% -0.65% -1.86% -1.03% 3.51% -3.41% -2.41% -1.02% -3.52% 2.37% -2.47% -13.25%
IPSA ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC TOTAL
2002 -1.65% -9.29% 3.36% 0.19% 4.13% -3.80%
2003 0.20% 1.29% -0.57% 15.34% 5.76% -0.23% 7.59% 3.65% 4.44% 5.97% -3.80% 1.81% 48.48%
2004 -5.11% 9.53% -5.46% -1.94% -0.13% 3.79% 2.55% 7.27% 4.63% 3.58% 1.26% 0.34% 20.99%
2005 0.75% 4.71% 3.51% -0.24% 0.60% 4.47% 5.75% -4.08% 3.19% -3.72% -2.17% -3.11% 9.35%
2006 7.84% 2.28% 0.70% 0.90% -2.05% -1.41% 0.26% 3.51% 3.36% 4.38% 7.54% 5.22% 37.10%
2007 7.50% -2.89% 4.17% 7.93% 3.74% 5.81% -3.74% -0.91% -1.85% 6.22% -7.15% -4.76% 13.31%
2008 -8.63% 1.74% 2.30% 3.01% 1.99% -1.61% 0.50% -3.97% -4.90% -9.58% -3.35% -1.24% -22.13%
2009 7.28% -3.17% 0.42% 7.74% 16.09% -0.32% 4.39% -1.58% 6.23% -1.73% -1.78% 10.02% 50.71%
2010 6.35% 0.49% -1.68% 2.72% 0.55% 4.59% 7.35% 3.69% 5.98% 2.44% 0.90% -0.59% 37.59%
2011 -5.16% -4.89% 4.05% 4.28% 0.53% -1.08% -7.70% -3.11% -9.32% 11.28% 0.24% -11.97%
ISBVL ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC TOTAL
2002 2.77% -4.55% 7.72% 11.34% 1.63% 19.57%
2003 7.09% 2.87% 0.01% 13.48% 2.45% 0.57% 3.13% 1.52% 5.04% 6.05% 4.11% 15.94% 81.35%
2004 11.91% 3.76% 12.36% -9.01% 3.66% -2.74% -1.88% 0.56% 16.41% 6.70% 2.01% 3.06% 54.23%
2005 3.86% 5.25% 1.87% -4.39% -0.76% 1.59% 3.88% 6.44% 9.57% -5.60% 6.78% -4.85% 24.70%
2006 21.95% 7.56% -2.37% 23.33% 0.42% 13.12% 13.13% 14.22% 2.88% 0.79% 7.09% 12.05% 188.49%
2007 3.45% 12.60% 11.28% 21.80% 0.03% 12.35% 5.73% -11.87% 2.94% -0.28% -18.32% -5.48% 31.03%
2008 -17.66% 21.87% -0.72% 1.13% -4.09% -4.07% -16.69% 0.48% -15.89% -39.67% 7.37% -4.75% -59.73%
2009 -2.90% -3.87% 34.71% 12.54% 36.26% -4.86% 9.27% -3.80% 8.68% -7.97% 1.12% -1.60% 91.89%
2010 1.22% -3.39% 5.06% 2.22% -8.33% -3.97% 3.43% 6.32% 14.24% 7.58% 3.42% 10.56% 42.86%
2011 -2.65% -0.68% -3.22% -8.81% 8.93% -13.20% 17.54% -4.95% -11.54% 7.06% -0.39% -14.98%
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Back Testing - MILA Performance Attribution
MILA ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC TOTAL 2002 -1.07% -5.93% 9.28% 6.95% 2.65% 11.65% 2003 1.28% -0.36% 0.70% 14.58% 7.39% 1.80% 3.08% 2.20% 4.52% 8.24% 2.09% 10.22% 70.73% 2004 8.85% 8.80% 4.76% -3.73% -4.42% 1.59% 0.79% 5.59% 12.73% 5.85% 9.29% 5.22% 69.35% 2005 0.74% 9.42% -3.32% 1.15% -1.08% 7.84% 8.47% 4.16% 5.34% -3.02% 9.02% 1.18% 46.43% 2006 15.54% 5.00% -2.45% 8.34% -9.09% -2.20% 12.06% 8.15% 1.25% 7.14% 4.19% 9.79% 71.44% 2007 1.47% 1.91% 6.90% 12.36% 3.41% 6.51% 3.43% -8.36% 3.08% 5.87% -8.15% -3.61% 25.29% 2008 -8.69% 10.15% 2.92% 3.42% -0.76% -11.10% -0.26% -4.18% -13.83% -30.82% 3.03% 1.93% -43.48% 2009 0.31% -3.98% 14.69% 15.17% 24.99% 2.01% 7.79% -1.07% 12.10% -5.36% 3.82% 2.52% 95.34% 2010 2.68% 0.80% 2.50% 1.95% -4.07% 1.22% 8.84% 7.19% 10.88% 4.57% -2.66% 6.49% 47.26% 2011 -3.61% -2.34% -0.16% 1.13% 4.31% -5.51% 3.14% -3.10% -14.60% 11.22% -2.16% -12.98%
Rentabilidad Anualizada Desviación Estándar Sharpe Ratio Correlación ISBVL
MILA 33.04% 24.81%
1.21 0.83
0
500
1,000
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3,000
Jul-
02
Oct
-02
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-03
Ab
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Ab
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Jul-
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Back Testing MILA (USD)Jul-2002 - Nov-2011
COLCAP (Exp. en USD) IPSA (Exp. en USD) ISBVL (Exp. en USD) MILA
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<-1
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8 3 1 10 9 7 14 16 5 12 4 23
ISBVL
Distribución de retornos mensuales Jul-2002 - Nov-2011
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COLCAP
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4 40
6 12 7 17 16 12 9 12 13
MILA
64% 36% 63% 37%
66% 34% 71% 29%
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-10
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%
2008 2011 2002 2005 2003 2009
2007 2004
2010 2006
MILA
-10
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2008 2011 2002 2005 2004 2003 2006
2007 2009
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ISBVL
-10
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2002 2004 2003 2009
2008 2005 2006
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IPSA
-10
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10
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>1
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%
2008 2006 2002 2009 2004 2005
2011 2007 2003
2010
COLCAP
Distribución de retornos por año calendario 2002 - 2011 (*al 11-11-11)
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1. Países con alto potencial de crecimiento (incluso dentro de los mismos mercados emergentes)
4. Las bolsas de Perú, Chile y Colombia son las que menos correlación tienen entre sí en la región, por lo que además de oportunidades de inversión nos entregan una óptima diversificación
2. Diversificación Geográfica, Sectorial y de monedas: • Colombia : Petróleo • Perú : Minería • Chile : Forestal, eléctrico y retail entre otros
3. La combinación de las 3 bolsas nos permite ampliar la frontera eficiente de inversión. El comportamiento histórico del portafolio equiponderado en los principales índices de los tres países muestra una mejor relación riesgo/retorno que una inversión en alguno de los países individualmente.
5. Las acciones de la bolsa Peruana y Colombiana son de menor capitalización bursatil en promedio que las compañías Chilenas, lo que en el largo plazo las hace muy atractivas, ya que la evidencia en Latinoamérica muestra que en el largo plazo las empresas small cap tienen un mejor desempeño que las large cap.
Entonces, por qué invertir en MILA? A manera de resumen…
6. Beneficios Tributarios
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Por qué hacerlo a través de ING Fondos SAF? Sinergias ING
• Uno de los asset manager más grandes en Latinoamérica (más de US$ 81.000 millones en activos financieros administrados)
• Único asset manager con equipos de inversiones en los tres países
• Equipo de 12 profesionales definiendo la estrategia de selectividad en el fondo (4 personas en Colombia, 4 personas en Perú y 4 personas en Chile), nos dan la posibilidad de hacer selectividad y encontrar oportunidades de valor en cada país.
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Por qué hacerlo a través de ING Fondos SAF? Cada país genera y comparte sus ideas semanalmente
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Por qué hacerlo a través de ING Fondos SAF? Expertise en Renta Variable
159
366
602
0
100
200
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ING RA IND RV PEN IND RV
MM
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So
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ING Renta Acciones
ING fondos administra el 30% de los fondos mutuos de acciones locales denominados en soles.
ING fondos administra el 26% del total de fondos mutuos de acciones locales.
-30%
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-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2009 2010 YTD
ING Renta Acciones Avg. Industria
2009 2010 YTD ING RA 55.52% 58.92% -21.49% Avg. Industria 53.16% 51.07% -23.00%
Performance Neto del fondo ING RA vs AVG Industria
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-45%
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
3Q07 4Q07 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q10 1Q11
ING RA ISBVL
Por qué hacerlo a través de ING Fondos SAF? Generación de valor
Performance en Trimestres Negativos
• 78% del tiempo por encima del índice • 54% de los meses obtuvimos mejores
retornos • 12% más de retorno
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Re
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Plazo Mixtos Renta Variable
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Manejo de expectativas El perfil de riesgo de un fondo es del fondo, no del cliente
2008 n.a. 2009 4/7 2010 3/7 2011 1/7
2008 n.a. 2009 3/7 2010 1/7 2011 1/7
2008 5/7 2009 7/7 2010 6/7 2011 5/7
2008 2/5 2009 1/5 2010 1/5 2011 1/6
2008 2/3 2009 2/4 2010 1/4 2011 1/4
2008 2/3 2009 4/6 2010 3/6 2011 2/7
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Riesgo
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El Fondo MILA ING Mercados Integrados FMIV
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ING Mercados Integrados
El Fondo MILA ING Mercados Integrados FMIV
Benchmark:
Límites: Mínimo 15 acciones en total Mínimo 20% por país Máximo 60% por país Acciones individuales (PM) 10% o 5% (s/PM) Por lo menos 50% de la recomendación por país
ISBVL 33%
IPSA 33%
COLCAP 33%
• Inicio de Operaciones : 19-May-2011 • Moneda del valor cuota : USD • Valor inicial : USD 10.00 • Permanencia mínima : 30 días útiles • Comisión rescate ant. : 1.5% del rescate • Política de dividendos : No se distribuye • Suscripción inicial : USD 1,000 • Suscripciones adicionales : USD 500 • Saldo mínimo : USD 500 • Fee de administración : 3.00% • Custodio : Scotiabank • Auditor : Ernst & Young • Bancos recaudadores : BBVA, BCP, BIF, Citibank
Scotiabank
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Sinergias ING Global
Rentabilidad Potencial atractiva
Diversificación Geográfica
Diversificación Sectorial
Diversificación de monedas
Impuesto a las ganancias de capital
Por qué invertir en ING Mercados Integrados? Como parte de una estrategia de inversión
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Rentabilidades (*) al: 31/10/2011
Días ING RENTA CP SOLES
ING RENTA CP DOLARES
ING RENTA SOLES
ING RENTA FUND
ING RENTA BALANCEAD
A
ING RENTA ACCIONES
ING MERCADOS
INTEGRADOS
30 4.80% 4.52% 18.23% 15.92% 4.38% 6.02% 10.63%
90 5.37% 3.05% 12.42% 5.16% -3.47% -11.11% -6.02%
180 4.99% 3.34% 12.50% 6.75% -1.65% -10.74%
365 3.86% 2.89% 5.88% 3.49% -1.79% -10.53%
YTD 304 4.03% 3.04% 6.39% 3.77% -8.57% -21.49% (*) Rentabilidad Anualizada excepto para ING RENTA BALANCEADA, ING RENTA ACCIONES y ING MERCADOS INTEGRADOS
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¥ 0165
€ 0128
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PERFILES DE INVERSION
MODELOS DE INVERSION
Establecen los parámetros y límites de inversión entre las diferentes clases de activos para objetivos financieros determinados.
Proponen mezclas de activos que respetan las particularidades de cada perfil predefinido, y se van ajustando a lo largo del tiempo a las distintas coyunturas.
El cliente es quien evalúa y decide si alguno de los modelos responde a sus expectativas de inversión. El modelo, basado en el proceso de Asset Allocation, combina apropiadamente la búsqueda del logro de objetivos personales con el knowhow que aporta ING.
RECOMENDACIONES DE INVERSION
MANEJO DE EXPECTATIVAS DE NUESTROS CLIENTES :
Guía de Inversión para los asesores Valor Agregado
