Informe de coyuntura económica N° 10 año 2012

7/31/2019 Informe de coyuntura econmica N 10 ao 2012

1/36

Aimxnrf} hf mnlzfxkxkqkhih Rfdknìe f` Fmvihnr :9:82:92 @n.9:

9

Kànrlf hf Mn{v`xvri Fmn`lkmi

@n 9:

L]m. ]iìdn Nmoni Lnrf`n

Iì Qkmxnrki Mfek Girilkeen

2:92

:9.:8.2:92

Aimxnrf} hfMnlzfxxqkhih

Rfdknìe f`

Fmvihnr 2:9:


2/36


3/36


=

K`xrnhvmmk`

Fe hmkln Bnef` hf Mn{v`xvri Fmn`lkmi hfe K`}xvxn hf K`qf}dimkn`f}

Fmn`lkmi} /KKF+ hf ei VXZE% ibnrhi ei klznrxi`mki yvf f`f` hkafrf`xf}

aimxnrf} f` ei Mnlzfqkhih Rfdknìe hfe Fmvihnr% ihfl} lvf}xri

ei mn`mf`xrimk` { ei hk}zfr}k` hf xief} aimxnrf}. F}xf hnmvlf`xn f} v`

fxrimxn hfe zizfr mn` fe lk}ln `nlbrf f`qkihn i ei rfqk}xi Hklf`}k`

Fmn`lkmi hf ei V`kqfr}khih @imknìe Ivx`nli hf Lkmn f` f`frn hf

2:92.

Ei mnlzfqkhih ei mizimkhih hf mnlzfr% hf vì zrnqk`mki n rfdk`%

f} fe mn`gv`xn hf rfmvr}n} { mn`nmklkf`xn} ihyvkrkhn} ziri iemi`wir v`

`kqfe }nmknfmn`lkmn l} iexn f` fe lfhki`n { eirdn zeiwn. F} ei vekwimk`

fmkf`xf hf en} rfmvr}n} hk}zn`kbef} { ei mizimkhih hf df`frir ofrrilkf`xi}

ziri fe hf}irrneen hf anrli l} imfefrihi yvf }v} zirf} /Znrxfr% 9;;:+. Ei

mnlzfqkhih% f}x ekdihi mn` mirimxfr}mi} hfe f}xihn { hf ei flzrf}i

zrkqihi3 zfrn }v klznrxi`mki rihkmi f` fe ièk}k} rfdknìe hf}hf fe zv`xn

hf qk}xi hf hf}irrneen xfrrkxnrkie k`xfdrie% fqkxi`hn ei} hk}zirkhihf} f`xrf

rfi} fmn`lkmi}. ]fd` Xnrrf} { Di}mi /2::1+ }v ièk}k} f}x f`milkìhn

i endrir f` fe eirdn zeiwn% v` li{nr `kqfe hf mn`qfrdf`mki ìmknìe.

Zfrn f}xf mnlznrxilkf`xn hfbf iìekwir}f k`xfrìlf`xf { rfdknìelf`xf

yv }vmfhf mn` ei mnlzfqkhih i `kqfe zrnqk`mkie> fk}xf fyvkhihf` ei zrnhvmmk` f` mihi rfdk` hfe zi}> yv zrnqk`mki} }n` ei} l}

mnlzfqi}> Ziri f}xf ièk}k}% iedv`n} f}xvhkn} en fànmi` mn` mirmxfr

flzrf}irkie `kmilf`xf% }k` flbirdn aimxnrf} hf mnlzfqkhih mnln

fe ZKB% fhvmimk`% kàrif}xrvmxvri% f`xrf nxri}% }n` klznrxi`xf} ziri

ei mnlzfqkhih { hf}irrneen rfdknìe i} mnln ziri mnlzrf`hfr ei}

hk}zirkhihf} f`xrf rfdkn`f} }k }f f`lirmi` f` aimxnrf} meiqf.


4/36


8

Ziri lfhkr ei mnlzfqkhih }f f}li v` `hkmf hf mnlzfqkhih rfdknìe.

Fe `hkmf hf Mnlzfqkhih Rfdknìe f} v` k`hkmihnr yvf k`xf`xi lfhkr

hkafrf`xf} i}zfmxn} hf ei mnlzfqkhih hf ei} rfdkn`f}% k`mev{f`hn eianrli mnln }xi} lfgnri` ei miekhih hf qkhi hf }v} oibkxi`xf} { mrfi` ei}

mn`hkmkn`f} ziri ixrifr k`qfr}k` /LFA% 2:99+9.

Ei vekwimk` hf }xf `hkmf% zfrlkxf mn`xir mn` v` rfafrf`xf ihkmknìe ziri

mn`nmfr mvi`xiqilf`xf% en} i}zfmxn} l} hbkef} hfe zi}.

Fe `hkmf yvf }f fzn`f f` fe zrf}f`xf xribign avf mrfihn mn` ei ìekhihhf nbxf`fr vì zfr}zfmqi df`frie hf ei }kxvimk` hf mihi zrnqk`mki hf

Fmvihnr { hf f}xi li`fri aimkekxir ei izekmibkekhih hf zrn{fmxn} n znemi}

yvf zfrlkxi` lfgnrir ei mnlzfqkhih i `kqfe }vbìmknìe xnli`hn f`

mvf`xi }v} hfbkekhihf} { nznrxv`khihf}. Fe zrk`mkzie zrnbefli ie mrfir fe

k`hkmihnr% f} ei aiexi hf kànrlimk` f}xih}mi f` fe zi}% znr en yvf% f`

iedv`n} mi}n}% }f hfbf` vekwir hixn} zrn{fmxihn} /2:9:+% en mvie hkfrf hf

mkfrxi anrli en} rf}vexihn} nbxf`khn} hf ei rfiekhih.

Ziri rfiekwir fe `hkmf hf mnlzfqkhih rfdknìe }f oi xnlihn f` mvf`xi

hkfmk}kfxf qirkibef}% ei} mvief} }f idrvzi` f` mk`mn zkeirf}7 Dnbkfr`n f

K`}xvmkn`f}% hf}irrneen fmn`lkmn% kàrif}xrvmxvri { }frqkmkn}% mizkxie

ovli`n { dri`hf} flzrf}i}% zvf}xn yvf mnln en }fiei Kxvrriehf /2::6+

ei} fzfrkf`mki} k`xfrìmknìef} { en} lxnhn} f}xih}mn} }vdkfrf` yvf

v` lnhfen hf lfhkmk` { fqievimk` hf ei mnlzfqkhih rfdknìe hfbf

mn`xf`fr fe lf`nr `lfrn hf qirkibef} ziri li`xf`fr }v znhfr zrfhkmqn

{ fqievihnr3 mi}n mn`xrirkn }f mnrrf fe rkf}dn hf mrfir v` }k}xfli mn` znmi

}kd`kmi`mki zrmmi { f}xih}mi.

9 Lk`k}xfrkn hf Fmn`nli { Akì`wi} hf Zfr


5/36


6

I`xfmfhf`xf}

F` Fmvihnr fe zrnbefli rfdknìe% n f} vì mvf}` yvf zvfhi }fr rfefdihi%

f} v`n hf en} zrk`mkzief} zrnbefli} ziri }v hf}irrneen. ]k bkf` ei} qirkibef}

limrnfmn`lkmi} i `kqfe ìmknìe f`f` v` hf}flzfn% mihi zrnqk`mki

f`f v` f`xnr`n hkafrf`xf en mvie k`v{f f` }v hf}irrneen /iedv`n} aimxnrf}

i l} hfe mrfmklkf`xn ZKB , k`v{f` f` ei mnlzfqkhih+.

F}xi} hkafrf`mki} }f f`lirmi` f` ei} mirimxfr}mi} hf mihi zrnqk`mki {

}v f`xnr`n% f` Dvi{i} { Zkmok`moi znr fgflzen% f}x` fe zvfrxn zrk`mkzie

{ ei mizkxie hfe zi} { fgfrmf` k`vf`mki f` fe mrfmklkf`xn hf iedvì}

mkvhihf} iefhii}. Fmvihnr imxvielf`xf f`f 28 zrnqk`mki}% hf ei} mvief}%

kànrlimk` f}xih}mi }nen }f zn}ff hf 22% zvf}xn yvf ei} hn} eli}

zrnqk`mki} avfrn` mrfihi} 2::4 { ei kànrlimk` f} eklkxihi.

F} klznrxi`xf iìekwir mve f} fe drihn hf zrndrf}n oimki vì li{nr mnof}k`

f`xrf ei} rfdkn`f} hfe zi} znr en mvie f} klznrxi`xf xilbk` rfiekwir fe

ièk}k} hf en} aimxnrf} yvf }vb{imf` ei} hkafrf`mki} hf mnlzfqkhih

rfdknìe% en} mvief} hfbf` }fr ei ofrrilkf`xi zrk`mkzie { hf v}n hkrfmxn f` ei

anrlveimk` ihfmvihi hf ei avxvri znemi hf mnof}k`.

I zirr hf ei hneirkwimk` f` 2::9% ei} f}xih}mi} nmkief} hfe zi} }f oi`

qf`khn f}xi`hirkwi`hn { oimk`hn}f l} mnlziribef}3 }k` flbirdn% i l}hf ei} rfdkn`f} zrnzvf}xi} znr fe imxvie dnbkfr`n% lk}li} yvf }f hkfrn` znr

mvf}n`f} dfndrmi} l} yvf znr mvf}n`f} fmn`lkmi}% en} f}xvhkn}

vrbi`n} { rfdknìef} }n` f}mi}n}.

Ei mnlzfqkhih rfdknìe }f oi mn`qfrhn f` fe i}zfmxn av`hilf`xie f`

ei idf`hi hf znemi} zbekmi} f` xnhn} en} zi}f} hf}irrneeihn}% ihfl}

f} nbgfxn hf f}xvhkn hf klznrxi`xf} f`hihf}% flzfrn% en} zi}f} f` qi}


6/36


1

hf hf}irrneen `n }kflzrf oi` xrixihn hf oimfr xnhn en zn}kbef ziri lfgnrir

}v bkf`f}xir% en} fànyvf} }n` hf mirmxfr znemn { mn` vì zfr}zfmqi

limrnfmn`lkmi% l} `n mn` vì qk}k` vrbi`n { rfdknìe yvf zfrlkxiion`hir f` en} zrnbefli} hf mihi rfdk` { i} lfgnrir ei} mn`hkmkn`f}

k`xfrì} { mn` feen hk}lk`vkr ei k`fyvkhih f`xrf rfdkn`f} ziri yvf fe `kqfe

hf mnlzfqkhih zvfhi lfgnrir}f.

Iv`yvf f} hf dri` klznrxi`mki% ei mnlzfqkhih rfdknìe oi xf`khn v`

}vrdklkf`xn xirhn zrk`mkzielf`xf znr hn} aimxnrf}7 fe zrklfrn% ei mirf`mki

hf kànrlimk` hf}idrfdihi i `kqfe rfdknìe /zrnqk`mkie+ { fe }fdv`hnv` xfli df`frie mn` ei xirhi izirkmk` hf ei mnlzfqkhih mnln xfli

fmn`lkmn f}zfmmn% zvf} }k bkf` iedv`n} iznrxf} hi` k`kmkn hf}hf Ihil

]lkxo /9441+% ei mnlzfqkhih rfdknìe oi }khn l} rfefqi`xf f` ei} eli}

hmihi}.

Xof Tnreh Fmn`nlkm Anrvl% vbkm i Fmvihnr f` fe zvf}xn `lfrn 922 hf

9=9 f` en yvf rf}zfmxi i mnlzfqkhih lv`hkie% ziri fe zfrknhn 2:9:,

2:99 /Hkirkn On{% := hf Li{n hf 2:99+. F}xn lvf}xri fe driqf hf}mf`}n

yvf oi xf`khn fe zi} {i yvf f` fe zfrknhn 2::1,2::4 nmvzibi fe zvf}xn

;:. Fe `hkmf lv`hkie xnli f` mvf`xi hnmf zirlfxrn} yvf k`mev{f`7

kàrif}xrvmxvri% k`}xvmkn`f}% fmkf`mki hf lfrmihn hf bkf`f}% fmkf`mki

hfe lfrmihn eibnrie% fhvmimk`% }ievh% f`xrf nxrn}. F} znr f}xi riw` yvf

fe `hkmf rfdknìe f} lv{ klznrxi`xf {i yvf zfrlkxf mn`nmfr ei }kxvimk`

fmn`lkmi { }nmkie hf mihi zrnqk`mki { i} imxvir hf anrli zirmveir% }fd`

}v} mkrmv`}xi`mki}% mn` fe nbgfqn hf lfgnrir i `kqfe ìmknìe mnrrkdkf`hn

zrklfrilf`xf en} zrnbefli} i `kqfe lkmrnfmn`lkmn.


7/36


4

Nbgfqn}

Nbgfqn df`frie7 Iìekwir ei mnlzfqkhih f`xrf ei} zrnqk`mki} hf Fmvihnr f` fe

in 2:9:.

Nbgfqn} F}zfmmn}7

Hfxfrlkìr en} aimxnrf} yvf k`v{f` f` ei mnlzfqkhih hf mihi

zrnqk`mki }fd` ei} qirkibef} rfefqi`xf} hf anrli k`hkqkhvie {

mnefmqi. K`hidir ei} hkafrf`mki} hfe kqfe hf mnlzfqkhih f` ei} zrnqk`mki}

hf Fmvihnr.

Okzxf}k}

Ei mnlzfqkhih f` Fmvihnr f}x f`lirmihi f` v` mn`xfxn rfdknìe

ln`nm`xrkmn% idenlfr`hn}f en} aimxnrf} hf mnlzfqkhih f` znmi}

zrnqk`mki}.

I}zfmxn} xfrkmn} hf ei mnlzfqkhih

Hf}hf fe zv`xn hf qk}xi lkmrnfmn`lkmn% ei mnlzfqkhih }f hf`f mnln

ei mizimkhih hf vì flzrf}i ziri li`xf`fr n imrfmf`xir }v zf}n hf`xrn

hf v` hfxfrlkìhn lfrmihn /Rfzbekmi Nrkf`xie hfe Vrvdvi{% 2::1+3 i}

lk}ln mvi`hn }f oibei hf qf`xigi mnlzfqi% }f rffrf i ei mizimkhih

hf xri`}anrlir ei lixfrki zrkli f` zrnhvmxn} feibnrihn} hf vì anrli

fmkf`xf mn` fe ` hf liklkwir bf`fmkn}. ]k` flbirdn% fe mn`mfzxn hf


8/36


?

mnlzfqkhih rfdknìe }f xnrì v` znmn l} mnlzefgn zvf}xn yvf ziri

znhfr rfiekwir v` ièk}k} mnlziriqn f`xrf ei} hkafrf`xf} rfdkn`f} hfe zi}

}f hfbf iihkr qirkn} k`hkmihnrf} limrnfmn`lkmn}.

Fk}xf vì hkqfr}khih hf mn`mfzxn} { xm`kmi} ziri lfhkr ei mnlzfqkhih

hf}irrneeihn} i en eirdn hf ei ok}xnrki% flzfwi`hn znr ]lkxo /9441+% yvkf`

f}xibi i aiqnr hfe ekbrf mnlfrmkn% i }v zirfmfr% v` zi} zvfhf }fr l}

zrnhvmqn }k }f f}zfmkiekwi f` ei zrnhvmmk` { fznrximk` hf iyvfeen}

bkf`f} }nbrf en} yvf xvqkfri vì qf`xigi ib}nevxi f klznrxir iyvfeen} }nbrf

en} yvf `n ei xvqkfri% fe ofmon hf yvf v` zi} xf`di qf`xigi ib}nevxi}vzn`f yvf fe mn}xn hf zrnhvmkr v` hfxfrlkìhn bkf`% f} lf`nr f` xrlk`n}

ib}nevxn} mn` rf}zfmxn ie mn}xn f` en} yvf k`mvrrf` nxrn} zi}f} ie zrnhvmkr

f}xf lk}ln bkf`. Rkmirhn /9?94+ ilzek f}xf mn`mfzxn ie k`xrnhvmkr ei xfnri

}nbrf ei} qf`xigi} mnlziriqi}% }fd` ei mvie fe mnlfrmkn znhri bf`fmkir

i xnhn} en} zi}f} }k mihi v`n }f hfhkmi i zrnhvmkr { fznrxir iyvfeen} bkf`f}

f` yvf endrf li{nr fmkf`mki rfeiqi drimki} i }v} hnximkn`f} ìxvrief}

/Rnhrdvfw% 2::1+. Hf anrli df`frie en} me}kmn}% irdvlf`xibi` yvf v`

}fmxnr mnlzfqn f} iyvfe yvf zn}ff ei mizimkhih }n}xf`kbef hf diìr

{ li`xf`fr }v zirmkzimk` hf lfrmihn f` anrli rf`xibef% xi`xn i `kqfe

hnl}mn mnln k`xfrìmknìe /VMFLI% 2:99+2.

En} `fnme}kmn}% znr lfhkn hfe lnhfen Ofmc}of` { Noek`% mn`nmkhn mnln

lnhfen hf zrnznrmk` hf aimxnrf}% }f bi}irn` f` ei khfi hf yvf v` zi}

mn`}kdvf qf`xigi} mnlziriqi} mvi`hn ie zrnhvmkr }f oimf v}n hf en}

aimxnrf} yvf zn}ff` mn` ibv`hi`mki. Gn}fzo ]movlzfxfr /9;82+ fàiw fe

rne hfe flzrf`hfhnr mnln v` aimxnr hf mnlzfqkhih% }vbri{i`hn yvf fe

zrndrf}n f} fe rf}vexihn hf en} hf}fyvkekbrkn} yvf aiqnrfmf` ei k``nqimk` {

ei lfgnri xfm`nedkmi /Bf`wiyvf` fx ie% 2:9:+3 Rnbfrx ]nent /9;28+% }fie

yvf ei fhvmimk`% ei k``nqimk` xfm`nedkmi { en} mrfmkf`xf} mn`nmklkf`xn}

2 V`kqfr}khih hfe Mfli


9/36


;

xm`kmn} }n` aimxnrf} av`hilf`xief} ziri lfgnrir ei mnlzfqkhih hf v`

zi}.

Ei xfnri imxvie l} rfefqi`xf% }fd` ei MFZIE% f} ei hf Znrxfr /2::6+% yvkf`

irdvlf`xi yvf ei qfrhihfri mnlzfqkhih }f lkhf znr ei zrnhvmqkhih%

ei mvie zfrlkxf i vì fmn`nli }nznrxir }ieirkn} iexn}% vì hkqk}i avfrxf% vì

rf`xibkekhih ixrimqi hfe mizkxie {% znr f`hf% v` iexn `kqfe hf qkhi% ihfl}

fzekmi yvf en yvf li{nr zf}n f`f ie lfhkr ei mnlzfqkhih hf v` zi}

f} ei ìxvriefwi { ei zrnhvmqkhih hf ei} imqkhihf} fmn`lkmi} yvf }f

hf}irrneei` k`xfrìlf`xf { `n xi`xn i} fe `kqfe hf fznrximkn`f} n fe ofmonhf yvf ei} flzrf}i} yvf av`mknì` hf`xrn hf v` xfrrkxnrkn hfxfrlkìhn

}fi` ìmknìef} n fxri`gfri} {i yvf ziri znhfr endrir v` lfgnrilkf`xn

i `kqfe limrnfmn`lkmn% }f hfbf mnlf`wir znr zfrafmmknìr k`kmkielf`xf

en} hfxieef} lkmrnfmn`lkmn} mnln% znr fgflzen% ei f}xrixfdki { f`xnr`n

flzrf}irkie% }n}mimk` eibnrie% fxm.% f}xf ivxnr irli yvf l} hfe

?:& hf ei qirkimk` hfe ZKB zfr mzkxi f`xrf zi}f} }f hfbf i ei} qirkibef}

av`hilf`xief} lkmrnfmn`lkmi}.

F` en yvf i mnlzfqkhih rfdknìe }f rffrf Qkeeiqfrhf /^^^^+% vekwi`hn

ei hf`kmk` hf ei Mnlk}k` Fvrnzfi% }fiei yvf ei mnlzfqkhih rfdknìe

f} ei mizimkhih hf ei} rfdkn`f} ziri df`frir% f}xi`hn fzvf}xi} i ei

mnlzfxf`mki k`xfrìmknìe% v`n} `kqfef} hf rf`xi { flzefn rfeiqilf`xf

iexn}% znr en yvf fe lfgnr k`hkmihnr ziri fzekmirei }fri fe ZKB zfr mzkxi.

Mnln en k`hkmi` Moiref} { Bf``ftnrxo% f` Rnln { Ihbfe /2::6+ fe hfbixf

mrvmkie mn` rf}zfmxn i ei mnlzfqkhih rfdknìe dkri f` xnr`n i ei rfeimk`

f`xrf ei mnlzfqkhih hf ei} mnlzii} { ei rfzfrmv}k` yvf }xi f`f f`

ei mnlzfqkhih hf en} xfrrkxnrkn} rfeimknìhn} mn` }xi}% {i }fi lfhki`xf

}v zrnzkfhih n }v vbkmimk`.


10/36


9:

F` Bf`wiyvf` fx ie /2:9:+ }f hf`f i ei mnlzfqkhih rfdknìe mnln ei

ihlk`k}xrimk` hf rfmvr}n} { mizimkhihf} ziri k`mrflf`xir }n}xf`khilf`xf

ei zrnhvmqkhih flzrf}irkie { fe bkf`f}xir hf ei znbeimk` hf ei rfdk`.]kdvkf`hn ei lfxnhnendi zrnzvf}xi znr f}xn} ivxnrf} { mn`}khfri`hn

iedv`n} milbkn} zfr`f`xf} }fd` ei kànrlimk` hk}zn`kbef ziri Fmvihnr%

f} `fmf}irkn f}yvfliwir ei hf`kmk` hf mnlzfqkhih rfdknìe yvf }f

oi vekwihn f` ei zrf}f`xf k`qf}dimk`.

Ei Mnlzfqkhih Rfdknìe }f oi mn`mfbkhn mnln fe mn`gv`xn hf aimxnrf}

yvf }k}xfliwi` ei mn`mf`xrimk` { enmiekwimk` hf mnlzn`f`xf}% yvfznhri` zfrlkr i vì rfdk` hf}flzfir}f f` vì fmn`nli% aimxnrf}

mn` en} mvief} }f zvfhf f}xibefmfr f}x`hirf} hf miekhih hf qkhi ziri

en} oibkxi`xf} f` mihi rfdk`. Mn` f}xf zv`xn hf zirhi% }f zrnmfhfr

i feibnrir v` `hkmf hf mnlzfqkhih rfdknìe f` fe yvf }f xnlir` f`

mvf`xi en} }kdvkf`xf} i}zfmxn} mnln zkeirf} av`hilf`xief}7

Mvihrn 9. Zrk`mkzief} aimxnrf} hf Mnlzfqkhih Rfdknìe ziri fe Fmvihnr

AIMXNR QIRKIBEF]

DNBKFR@N FK@]XKXVMKN@F]

@lfrn hflv`kmkzkn}

@lfrn hfk`}xkxvmkn`f}fhvmixkqi}

@lfrn hfV`kqfr}khihf}

@lfrn hfk`}xkxvmkn`f}aì`mkfri}

@lfrn hfmf`xrn} hf }ievh{ on}zkxief}

MRFMKLKF@XNFMN@LKMN

ZKB zfr mzkxi@kqfe hfflzefn

K@ARIF]XRVMXVRI[ ]FRQKMKN]

Immf}n i}frqkmkn} hfiemi`xirkeeihn

Immf}n i evwfemxrkmi

Immf}n i}frqkmknxfefa`kmn

Immf}n i idviznxibef

Mirrfxfri}

MIZKXIE OVLI@NFhvmimk`zrklirki

Fhvmimk`}fmv`hirki

Fhvmimk`}vzfrknr

@lfrn hfiìeaibfxn}

DRI@HF]FLZRF]I]

@lfrn hfflzrf}i}dri`hf}

Avf`xf7 Feibnrimk` zrnzki f` av`mk` iMfzie 2:9:


11/36


99

Lfxnhnendi

Zrklfrilf`xf }f feibnrir en} }vb`hkmf} hf mnlzfqkhih rfdknìe {zrnqk`mkie znr mihi aimxnr mn`}khfrihn f` fe f}xvhkn% { evfdn }f zrnmfhfr i

mn`}xrvkr fe `hkmf denbie ziri fe zfrknhn 2:9:. Ziri znhfr rfiekwir hkmon `hkmf

}f xnlir` mnln avf`xf} hf kànrlimk` }fmv`hirki i7 K`}xvxn @imknìe

hf F}xih}mi} { Mf`}n} /K@FM+% Bi`mn Mf`xrie hfe Fmvihnr /BMF+% ]k}xfli

K`xfdrihn hf K`hkmihnrf} ]nmkief} hfe Fmvihnr /]KK]F+% ]vzfrk`xf`hf`mki hf

Bi`mn} { ]fdvrn} /]KB]+% ]vzfrk`xf`hf`mki hf Mnlzii} /]M+% ]fmrfxiri

@imknìe hf Zei`kmimk` { Hf}irrneen /]F@ZEIHF]+% ]frqkmkn hf Rf`xi}K`xfrì} /]RK+% Lk`k}xfrkn hf Xri`}znrxf { Nbri} Zbekmi} /LXNZ+% f`xrf

nxrn}.

F}xi`hirkwimk` hf Qirkibef}

Ziri fe ièk}k} }f rfiekwir vì f}miei ek`fie hf ei qirkibef% xm`kmi vekwihi

ziri f}xi`hirkwir fe ri`dn hf vì qirkibef. Ei f}limk` }f eefqi i mibn

khf`mi`hn hn} qienrf} iexn} { bign}% en} mvief} rfzrf}f`xi` en} zn}kbef}

ri`dn} hf vì qirkibef ziri xnhn fe zfrknhn { xnhn fe mn`gv`xn hf hixn}

zrnqk`mki}% rfdkn`f}% fxm.%/Lf`hnwi% 2::4+.

Fe }vb`hkmf hf mnlzfqkhih znr qirkibef} }f hf`nlkìr ]km { mnlzrf`hf

vì f}xi`hirkwimk` hf ei} qirkibef} mn` rf}zfmxn i }v lkln { i }v l`kln7

/9+]km .

Mn`}vexihn fe 22 hf Gv`kn hf 2:99. Hk}zn`kbef f`7 oz7ttt.

kf}f.fhvf}ihI`}felnRvbkriexiIzv`xf}Mnlzfxkxkqkhih^

f}.oxle

Xnrrf} { Di}mi. /2::1+.En} f}zimkn} hf rf}frqi f` ei fzi`}k`

denbie hf mizkxie. V@IL.

V@F]MN ! Lk`k}xfrkn hf Fhvmimk` hfe Fmvihnr. /2::;+.

Nrdi`kwimk` hf ei} @imkn`f} V`khi} ziri ei Fhvmimk`% ei

Mkf`mki { ei Mvexvri. Fqnevmk` ok}xrkmi% kànrlimk` imxviekwihi

{ lizi ìmknìe hfe iìeaibf}ln 2::;. Mn`}vexihn fe7 26

hf Li{n hf 2:99. Hk}zn`kbef f`7 oz7v`f}hnm.v`f}mn.nrd

klidf}::9?::9?699?6919}.zha


27/36


24

ZDK@I] TFB

ILF. /2:9:+. I}nmkimk` hf Lv`kmkziekhihf} Fmvixnrki`i}.Mn`}vexihn fe7 :2 hf Li{n hf 2:99. Hk}zn`kbef f`7

o x x z 7 t t t . i l f . d n q . f m k ` h f . z o z > n z x k n ` < m n l ^

mn`xf`x!qkftnzn`


28/36


2?

K@FM. /2:9:+. K`}xvxn @imknìe hf F}xih}mi { Mf`}n}. Mf`}n

@imknìe hf Znbeimk` { Qkqkf`hi {% Fmn`lkmn 2:9:. Mn`}vexihn

fe7 9? hf Li{n hf 2:99. Hk}zn`kbef f}7 ttt.k`fm.dnb.fm K@HFM. /2:99+. K`}xvxn @imknìe hf F}xih}mi { Mf`}n}.Den}irkn7

Qienr Idrfdihn Brvxn. Mn`}vexihn fe =9 hf Gvekn hf 2:99.

Hk}zn`kbef f`7 oz7ttt.k`hfm.lfmn`.irden}irknxfxn}^

den}irkn.i}z>khnzn`


29/36


2;

Rfzbekmi Nrkf`xie hfe Vrvdvi{. /2: hf Gv`kn hf 2::1+. Lk`k}xfrkn

hf Fmn`nli { `i`wi}. Mn`}vexihn fe 2: hf Gv`kn hf 2:99.

Hk}zn`kbef f`7 Mnlzfqkhih7 mn`mfzxn { hfxfrlk`i`xf}7oz7ttt.lfa.dvb.v{k`qfr}nrhnm^:=^mnlzfqkhih.zha

]B]. /2:9:+. ]vzfrk`xf`hf`mki hf Bi`mn} { ]fdvrn} hfe Fmvihnr.

Mn`}vexihn fe7 :6 hf Li{n hf 2:99. Hk}zn`kbef f`7 oz7ttt.

}b}.dnb.fmzrimxdz^k`hf

]F@ZEIHF]. /^^^^+. Mn`}vexihn fe Li{n hf 2:99.

Hk}zn`kbef f` oz7zei`.}f`zeihf}.dnq.fmmhnmvlf`x^

e k b r i r { d f x ^ a k e f > v v k h < 1 ? h 4 6 m i a , h = b h , 8 f a 8 , ? 9 ? : ,b=a6=89?499i!drnvzKh Df}` /966+.

Hkirkn On{. /:= hf Li{n hf 2:99+. Mn`}vexihn fe :6 hf Nmxvbrfhf

2:99. Hk}zn`kbef f`7 oz7ttt.on{.mnl.fm`nmki},fmvihnr

mnlzfqkhih,hf,fmvihnr,bign,i,`kqfe,lv`hkie,84==:4.oxle.


30/36


=:

NXRN]

Kxvrriehf% R. /2? hf F`frn hf 2::6+. ]XRIXFDI.MnlzfqkhihRfdkn`ie. Mn`}vexihn fe 2; hf ]fzflbrf hf 2:99. Hk}zn`kbef

f`7oz}7hnm}.dnndef.mnlqkftfr>i


31/36


=9

I@F_N]

I@F_N 9.

Mvihrn 9.Dnbkfr`n f k`}xvmkn`f} /Aimxnr 9+

VBKMIMK@ ZRNQK@MKI @HKMF 9 VBKMIMK@ ZRNQK@MKI @HKMF 9

9 DVI[I] :%;:1861:9 92 LNRN@I ]I@XKIDN :%294194=2

2 ZKMOK@MOI :%4=1144; 9= KLBIBVRI :%2:?1;69=

= LI@IBK :%1:9:92?1 98 MIIR :%9?494:;9

8 IWVI[ :%8:99=?1; 96 BNEKQIR :%948=2244

6 ENGI :%=1;664;4 91 MIRMOK :%9641:821

1 EN] RKN] :%=619==11 94 ]VMVLBKN] :%9=2=;:98

4 MOKLBNRIWN :%=2=829?= 9? @IZN :%99:::41

? FE NRN :%=9969?=; 9; ZI]XIWI :%9:4?;2:8

; XV@DVRIOVI :%2?=?6;? 2:WILNRI

MOK@MOKZF:%9:=:2?;?

9: MNXNZI_K :%2=46::; 29ARI@MK]MN HF

NRFEEI@I:%:?6?=49

99 F]LFRIEHI] :%2=24::86 22 DIEIZIDN] :%:=4=61=2

Avf`xf7 Feibnrimk` zrnzki f` bi}f i hixn} hf ]vzfrk`xf`hf`mki hf Bi`mn} { ]fdvrn} hfe Fmvihnr/2:9:+% Fmvihnr f` Mkari} /2:99+% MN@F]VZ /2::;+% Lk`k}xfrkn hf Fhvmimk` /2:99+ { ILF /2:9:+

I@F_N 2.

Mvihrn 2. Mrfmklkf`xn Fmn`lkmn /Aimxnr 2+


9 ZKMOK@MOI :%;11961;? 92 WILNRI MOK@MOKZF :%294462;9

2 DIEIZIDN] :%;688=;6; 9= MOKLBNRIWN :%9?41:882

= IWVI[ :%1142=846 98 F]LFRIEHI] :%916:=841

8 DVI[I] :%68818422 96 MNXNZI_K :%966?12:9

6 XV@DVRIOVI :%88?==1:; 91 LNRN@I ]I@XKIDN :%984626=8

1 MIIR :%=688=64= 94 MIRMOK :%9=186:9;

4 ZI]XIWI :%=84;?=84 9?ARI@MK]MN HF

NRFEEI@I:%924?9=1?

? ENGI :%=2?92;4; 9; EN] RKN] :%92611;:4


32/36


=2

; FE NRN :%2;1?8:;= 2: ]VMVLBKN] :%9:9:242;

9: KLBIBVRI :%2;:18499 29 @IZN :%:61:2;?=

99 LI@IBK :%2=4=48:? 22 BNEKQIR :%:2896;:2

Avf`xf7 Bi`mn Mf`xrie hfe Fmvihnr /2:9:+ K@FM /2:9:+

I@F_N =.Mvihrn =. K`arif}xrvmxvri { ]frqkmkn} /Aimxnr =+

VBKMIMK@ ZRNQK@MKI @HKMF = VBKMIMK@ ZRNQK@MKI @HKMF =

9 ZKMOK@MOI :%?;9;14:= 92 ]VMVLBKN] :%=1;4616

2 IWVI[ :%49=419?1 9= WILNRI MOK@MOKZF :%=619?841

= MIRMOK :%1=4=88;; 98 ZI]XIWI :%=68269:=

8 DVI[I] :%12:6==?1 96 F]LFRIEHI] :%=8?2=4;4

6 FE NRN :%618=624? 91 @IZN :%=89?2988

1 XV@DVRIOVI :%66?94;1? 94 LI@IBK :%=21121==

4 KLBIBVRI :%6:98:84? 9? MIIR :%=:?=4=;6

? MNXNZI_K :%81?:??:6 9;ARI@MK]MN HF

NRFEEI@I:%2??269?6

;LNRN@I

]I@XKIDN:%82229211 2: BNEKQIR :%281=::88

9: MOKLBNRIWN :%891===;? 29 EN] RKN] :%919411?6

99 ENGI :%=;46??89 22 DIEIZIDN] :

Avf`xf7 ]k}xfli hf K`hkmihnrf} ]nmkief} K`xfdrihn} hfe Fmvihnr /2:9:+% Mn`mfgn @imkn`ie hfXfefmnlv`kmimkn`f} MN@IXFE /2:9:+%

I@F_N 8.

Mvihrn 8. Mizkxie Ovli`n /Aimxnr 8+

VBKMIMK@ ZRNQK@MKI @HKMF 8 VBKMIMK@ ZRNQK@MKI @HKMF 89 DIEIZIDN] :%1;:4:=68 92 XV@DVRIOVI :%242;9=46

2 ZKMOK@MOI :%618?62:8 9= ZI]XIWI :%26999?98

= ENGI :%8=86=:6? 98 WILNRI MOK@MOKZF :%222461;

8 IWVI[ :%=?;?18:2 96 LNRN@I ]I@XKIDN :%2:69=82

6 @IZN :%=9?22616 91 DVI[I] :%9;4:4:=1

1 MOKLBNRIWN :%=:;;9926 94 MIRMOK :%9;2;288

4 ]VMVLBKN] :%=:=44:=; 9? EN] RKN] :%9889141=

? F]LFRIEHI] :%=:944=6 9; LI@IBK :%92:=99:8


33/36


==

; FE NRN :%2?;;?462 2: BNEKQIR :%:;619;42

9: NRFEEI@I :%2?;?:=;4 29 MNXNZI_K :%:492==:4

99 KLBIBVRI :%2?=84;;1 22 MIIR ,:%:92:4=42

Avf`xf7 Lk`k}xfrkn hf Fhvmimk` f` mnnrhk`imk` hf ei V@F]MN /2::;+% ]k}xfli hf K`hkmihnrf} ]nmkief}K`xfdrihn} hfe Fmvihnr /2:9:

I@F_N 6.

Mvihrn6. Dri`hf} Flzrf}i} /Aimxnr 6+


9 ZKMOK@MOI 9 92 MIIR :%::1169??

2 DVI[I] :%?6?:;=9= 9= ]VMVLBKN] :%::8868=8

= IWVI[ :%99:?1846 98 F]LFRIEHI] :%:28=;:28

8 LI@IBK :%:4=94:4= 96 DIEIZIDN] :%::22942;

6 FE NRN :%:2??28?= 91 BNEKQIR :%::22942;

1 XV@DVRIOVI :%:2??28?= 94 MIRMOK :

4 KLBIBVRI :%:96629:1 9? LNRN@I ]I@XKIDN :

? MNXNZI_K :%:99:?184 9; @IZN :

; EN] RKN] :%::??1;9? 2: ZI]XIWI :

9: MOKLBNRIWN :%::??1;9? 29 WILNRI MOK@MOKZF :

99 ENGI :%::1169?? 22ARI@MK]MN HF

NRFEEI@I:

Avf`xf7 ]vzfrk`xf`hf`mki hf Mnlzii}% 2:9:


34/36


35/36


36/36


Lk}k`

]nln} v` KKF yvf rfiekwi iznrxf} xfrkmn} { izekmihn} f` ei mkf`mkifmn`lkmi { anlf`xi fe zf`}ilkf`xn% hfbixf { hf}irrneen f` v`i

zfr}zfmxkqi denbiekwihnri% f`rkyvfmkf`hn hf f}xi li`fri xi`xn feyvfoimfr imihlkmn hf ei v`kqfr}khih mnln fe hf xnhi ei }nmkfhih.

Qk}k`

]fr ehfrf} f` k`qf}xkdimk` mkf`xmi yvf mn`xrkbv{i ie hf}irrneenfmn`lkmn,}v}xf`xibef hf ei }nmkfhih.

Informe de coyuntura económica N° 10 año 2012

Documents

Transcript of Informe de coyuntura económica N° 10 año 2012